Heath Frost Dates and Growing Season
Frost and the growing season
NOAA's 1991-2020 freeze probabilities for Lavon Dam. A median date has an even chance of a later freeze in spring, or an earlier one in fall.
The last spring freeze typically comes around March 10 and the first fall freeze around November 19, a growing season of about 254 days.
- Median at 36°F
- last March 26, first November 8
- Median at 32°F
- last March 10, first November 19
- Median at 28°F
- last February 26, first December 1
Last freeze in spring
The chance of a later freeze than the date shown. At 10 percent, one spring in ten still freezes after the date; planting after the 10 percent date for 32°F is the cautious choice.
| Threshold | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F | Apr 16 | Apr 7 | Apr 3 | Mar 30 | Mar 26 | Mar 20 | Mar 15 | Mar 11 | Mar 4 |
| 32°F | Mar 31 | Mar 23 | Mar 18 | Mar 13 | Mar 10 | Mar 6 | Mar 2 | Feb 26 | Feb 20 |
| 28°F | Mar 17 | Mar 11 | Mar 5 | Mar 2 | Feb 26 | Feb 23 | Feb 18 | Feb 13 | Feb 1 |
| 24°F | Mar 7 | Feb 28 | Feb 23 | Feb 17 | Feb 10 | Feb 5 | Jan 30 | Jan 23 | Jan 12 |
| 20°F | Feb 25 | Feb 17 | Feb 9 | Feb 2 | Jan 28 | Jan 20 | Jan 13 | Jan 5 | Dec 25 |
| 16°F | Feb 17 | Feb 9 | Feb 2 | Jan 26 | Jan 20 | Jan 13 | Jan 9 | Jan 2 | Dec 25 |
First freeze in fall
The chance of an earlier freeze than the date shown. At 10 percent, one fall in ten freezes before the date.
| Threshold | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F | Oct 25 | Oct 31 | Nov 2 | Nov 5 | Nov 8 | Nov 12 | Nov 15 | Nov 20 | Nov 25 |
| 32°F | Nov 1 | Nov 7 | Nov 12 | Nov 15 | Nov 19 | Nov 23 | Nov 27 | Dec 1 | Dec 5 |
| 28°F | Nov 13 | Nov 18 | Nov 23 | Nov 27 | Dec 1 | Dec 4 | Dec 8 | Dec 12 | Dec 22 |
| 24°F | Nov 24 | Nov 30 | Dec 5 | Dec 10 | Dec 15 | Dec 22 | Dec 29 | Jan 4 | Jan 16 |
| 20°F | Dec 6 | Dec 14 | Dec 22 | Dec 28 | Jan 1 | Jan 7 | Jan 13 | Jan 24 | Feb 5 |
| 16°F | Dec 18 | Dec 28 | Jan 1 | Jan 5 | Jan 11 | Jan 17 | Jan 24 | Feb 2 | Feb 14 |
Growing season length
Days between the last spring and first fall freeze at each threshold, with the chance of a season at least that long.
| Threshold | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F | 255 | 246 | 239 | 233 | 228 | 223 | 217 | 211 | 202 |
| 32°F | 278 | 270 | 264 | 259 | 254 | 248 | 243 | 236 | 227 |
| 28°F | 307 | 296 | 290 | 284 | 278 | 273 | 266 | 260 | 252 |
| 24°F | 341 | 330 | 321 | 313 | 307 | 302 | 295 | 287 | 276 |
| 20°F | 365 | 365 | 356 | 347 | 340 | 332 | 325 | 315 | 306 |
| 16°F | 365 | 365 | 365 | 365 | 365 | 365 | 359 | 347 | 333 |
How often it gets that cold
The share of years with at least one night at or below each temperature.
- 36°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 32°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 28°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 24°F or colder
- 99% of years
- 20°F or colder
- 78% of years
- 16°F or colder
- 34% of years
Degree days
A degree day is one degree of the daily mean temperature beyond a base, for one day. Heating degree days count cold (the fuel a house burns), cooling degree days heat, growing degree days the warmth a crop needs; each crop has its own base.
- Heating degree days, base 65°F
- 2,577
- Cooling degree days, base 65°F
- 2,318
- Growing degree days, base 40°F
- 9,015
- Growing degree days, base 45°F
- 7,384
- Growing degree days, base 50°F
- 5,884
- Growing degree days, base 55°F
- 4,535
- Growing degree days, base 60°F
- 3,344
Growing degree days by month, base 50°F
Heating and cooling by month
| Month | Heating DD | Cooling DD | Growing DD 50 |
|---|---|---|---|
| January | 653 | 1 | 42 |
| February | 474 | 3 | 82 |
| March | 306 | 19 | 230 |
| April | 117 | 63 | 402 |
| May | 19 | 217 | 663 |
| June | 0 | 429 | 879 |
| July | 0 | 552 | 1,017 |
| August | 0 | 563 | 1,027 |
| September | 6 | 345 | 789 |
| October | 87 | 111 | 493 |
| November | 325 | 15 | 195 |
| December | 589 | 2 | 66 |
What this means
NOAA computes these from the daily lows at the station over 1991-2020, fitting the dates of each year's last and first freeze to a distribution, so a date can be stated at any level of risk. 36°F is a frost risk for tender plants on a clear, calm night, since the ground cools below the air above it; 32°F is a freeze; 28°F is a hard freeze that kills most annuals.
The station is 22.1 km from Heath. Low ground, valleys and open fields freeze earlier and later than a town center or a hillside.
More
Sources
NOAA NCEI U.S. Climate Normals, 1991-2020, annual and seasonal normals for station USC00415094 (Lavon Dam). Public domain.