Elkhart climate

Elkhart Frost Dates and Growing Season

NOAA 1991-2020 normals for Palestine 2 Ne, 17.7 km from Elkhart, elevation 465 ft

Frost and the growing season

NOAA's 1991-2020 freeze probabilities for Palestine 2 Ne. A median date has an even chance of a later freeze in spring, or an earlier one in fall.

The last spring freeze typically comes around March 23 and the first fall freeze around November 9, a growing season of about 234 days.

Median at 36°F
last April 4, first November 1
Median at 32°F
last March 23, first November 9
Median at 28°F
last March 9, first November 20

Last freeze in spring

The chance of a later freeze than the date shown. At 10 percent, one spring in ten still freezes after the date; planting after the 10 percent date for 32°F is the cautious choice.

Threshold10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
36°FApr 20Apr 15Apr 10Apr 6Apr 4Mar 31Mar 28Mar 23Mar 16
32°FApr 9Apr 4Mar 31Mar 27Mar 23Mar 18Mar 14Mar 9Mar 2
28°FMar 29Mar 22Mar 17Mar 13Mar 9Mar 4Feb 28Feb 24Feb 12
24°FMar 16Mar 10Mar 4Mar 1Feb 23Feb 15Feb 4Jan 29Jan 17
20°FMar 7Feb 28Feb 16Feb 6Jan 31Jan 23Jan 14Jan 2Dec 23
16°FFeb 25Feb 8Jan 31Jan 24Jan 17Jan 10Jan 6Dec 30Dec 19

First freeze in fall

The chance of an earlier freeze than the date shown. At 10 percent, one fall in ten freezes before the date.

Threshold10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
36°FOct 20Oct 24Oct 28Oct 31Nov 1Nov 4Nov 6Nov 11Nov 15
32°FOct 28Nov 1Nov 4Nov 6Nov 9Nov 13Nov 17Nov 22Nov 29
28°FNov 3Nov 7Nov 12Nov 16Nov 20Nov 25Nov 30Dec 4Dec 11
24°FNov 10Nov 18Nov 25Nov 30Dec 4Dec 9Dec 17Dec 28Jan 7
20°FNov 20Dec 1Dec 7Dec 15Dec 26Jan 1Jan 6Jan 15Feb 1
16°FDec 4Dec 11Dec 24Jan 1Jan 4Jan 8Jan 13Jan 21Feb 5

Growing season length

Days between the last spring and first fall freeze at each threshold, with the chance of a season at least that long.

Threshold10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
36°F236228222216212208203197190
32°F260251244238234229223218209
28°F288277270263258252247240230
24°F329316306297290281274266255
20°F365357346338330322310301284
16°F365365365365365358348335318

How often it gets that cold

The share of years with at least one night at or below each temperature.

36°F or colder
100% of years
32°F or colder
100% of years
28°F or colder
100% of years
24°F or colder
99% of years
20°F or colder
86% of years
16°F or colder
51% of years

Degree days

A degree day is one degree of the daily mean temperature beyond a base, for one day. Heating degree days count cold (the fuel a house burns), cooling degree days heat, growing degree days the warmth a crop needs; each crop has its own base.

Heating degree days, base 65°F
2,229
Cooling degree days, base 65°F
2,478
Growing degree days, base 40°F
9,472
Growing degree days, base 45°F
7,797
Growing degree days, base 50°F
6,242
Growing degree days, base 55°F
4,831
Growing degree days, base 60°F
3,572

Growing degree days by month, base 50°F

Heating and cooling by month

MonthHeating DDCooling DDGrowing DD 50
January561584
February40811125
March25529274
April9889445
May14257708
June0438888
July05611,026
August05581,023
September3360807
October74137532
November30026229
December5168102

What this means

NOAA computes these from the daily lows at the station over 1991-2020, fitting the dates of each year's last and first freeze to a distribution, so a date can be stated at any level of risk. 36°F is a frost risk for tender plants on a clear, calm night, since the ground cools below the air above it; 32°F is a freeze; 28°F is a hard freeze that kills most annuals.

The station is 17.7 km from Elkhart. Low ground, valleys and open fields freeze earlier and later than a town center or a hillside.

More

Sources

NOAA NCEI U.S. Climate Normals, 1991-2020, annual and seasonal normals for station USW00093914 (Palestine 2 Ne). Public domain.