Fall Branch Frost Dates and Growing Season
Frost and the growing season
NOAA's 1991-2020 freeze probabilities for Kingsport. A median date has an even chance of a later freeze in spring, or an earlier one in fall.
The last spring freeze typically comes around April 9 and the first fall freeze around October 29, a growing season of about 203 days.
- Median at 36°F
- last April 23, first October 20
- Median at 32°F
- last April 9, first October 29
- Median at 28°F
- last March 28, first November 6
Last freeze in spring
The chance of a later freeze than the date shown. At 10 percent, one spring in ten still freezes after the date; planting after the 10 percent date for 32°F is the cautious choice.
| Threshold | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F | May 10 | May 5 | Apr 30 | Apr 26 | Apr 23 | Apr 20 | Apr 16 | Apr 12 | Apr 6 |
| 32°F | Apr 25 | Apr 20 | Apr 16 | Apr 13 | Apr 9 | Apr 6 | Apr 2 | Mar 30 | Mar 25 |
| 28°F | Apr 12 | Apr 6 | Apr 2 | Mar 31 | Mar 28 | Mar 25 | Mar 21 | Mar 17 | Mar 10 |
| 24°F | Mar 31 | Mar 27 | Mar 23 | Mar 19 | Mar 15 | Mar 11 | Mar 7 | Mar 3 | Feb 25 |
| 20°F | Mar 21 | Mar 15 | Mar 9 | Mar 5 | Mar 1 | Feb 26 | Feb 21 | Feb 13 | Feb 3 |
| 16°F | Mar 11 | Mar 4 | Feb 28 | Feb 22 | Feb 14 | Feb 7 | Feb 1 | Jan 26 | Jan 15 |
First freeze in fall
The chance of an earlier freeze than the date shown. At 10 percent, one fall in ten freezes before the date.
| Threshold | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F | Oct 6 | Oct 11 | Oct 14 | Oct 17 | Oct 20 | Oct 22 | Oct 26 | Oct 28 | Nov 1 |
| 32°F | Oct 15 | Oct 20 | Oct 24 | Oct 26 | Oct 29 | Nov 1 | Nov 2 | Nov 5 | Nov 10 |
| 28°F | Oct 25 | Oct 30 | Nov 1 | Nov 4 | Nov 6 | Nov 9 | Nov 13 | Nov 16 | Nov 23 |
| 24°F | Nov 4 | Nov 8 | Nov 12 | Nov 15 | Nov 18 | Nov 22 | Nov 26 | Dec 1 | Dec 7 |
| 20°F | Nov 13 | Nov 19 | Nov 25 | Nov 30 | Dec 3 | Dec 7 | Dec 13 | Dec 21 | Dec 29 |
| 16°F | Nov 27 | Dec 4 | Dec 9 | Dec 14 | Dec 22 | Dec 27 | Jan 1 | Jan 7 | Jan 16 |
Growing season length
Days between the last spring and first fall freeze at each threshold, with the chance of a season at least that long.
| Threshold | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F | 201 | 194 | 189 | 185 | 180 | 177 | 172 | 167 | 158 |
| 32°F | 223 | 215 | 210 | 207 | 203 | 199 | 194 | 189 | 181 |
| 28°F | 247 | 240 | 234 | 229 | 224 | 220 | 216 | 210 | 202 |
| 24°F | 276 | 266 | 259 | 254 | 250 | 246 | 240 | 234 | 226 |
| 20°F | 308 | 299 | 290 | 284 | 277 | 272 | 265 | 258 | 248 |
| 16°F | 339 | 329 | 321 | 314 | 306 | 300 | 293 | 284 | 272 |
How often it gets that cold
The share of years with at least one night at or below each temperature.
- 36°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 32°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 28°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 24°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 20°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 16°F or colder
- 98% of years
Degree days
A degree day is one degree of the daily mean temperature beyond a base, for one day. Heating degree days count cold (the fuel a house burns), cooling degree days heat, growing degree days the warmth a crop needs; each crop has its own base.
- Heating degree days, base 65°F
- 3,976
- Cooling degree days, base 65°F
- 1,257
- Growing degree days, base 40°F
- 6,866
- Growing degree days, base 45°F
- 5,428
- Growing degree days, base 50°F
- 4,152
- Growing degree days, base 55°F
- 3,035
- Growing degree days, base 60°F
- 2,070
Growing degree days by month, base 50°F
Heating and cooling by month
| Month | Heating DD | Cooling DD | Growing DD 50 |
|---|---|---|---|
| January | 873 | 0 | 14 |
| February | 693 | 0 | 20 |
| March | 524 | 2 | 91 |
| April | 242 | 20 | 255 |
| May | 74 | 105 | 498 |
| June | 6 | 253 | 697 |
| July | 0 | 357 | 822 |
| August | 0 | 324 | 789 |
| September | 27 | 169 | 593 |
| October | 228 | 25 | 283 |
| November | 531 | 1 | 71 |
| December | 778 | 0 | 20 |
What this means
NOAA computes these from the daily lows at the station over 1991-2020, fitting the dates of each year's last and first freeze to a distribution, so a date can be stated at any level of risk. 36°F is a frost risk for tender plants on a clear, calm night, since the ground cools below the air above it; 32°F is a freeze; 28°F is a hard freeze that kills most annuals.
The station is 14.2 km from Fall Branch. Low ground, valleys and open fields freeze earlier and later than a town center or a hillside.
More
Sources
NOAA NCEI U.S. Climate Normals, 1991-2020, annual and seasonal normals for station USC00404858 (Kingsport). Public domain.