Buffalo Frost Dates and Growing Season
Frost and the growing season
NOAA's 1991-2020 freeze probabilities for Buffalo Asos. A median date has an even chance of a later freeze in spring, or an earlier one in fall.
The last spring freeze typically comes around May 10 and the first fall freeze around October 1, a growing season of about 141 days.
- Median at 36°F
- last May 20, first September 22
- Median at 32°F
- last May 10, first October 1
- Median at 28°F
- last May 1, first October 8
Last freeze in spring
The chance of a later freeze than the date shown. At 10 percent, one spring in ten still freezes after the date; planting after the 10 percent date for 32°F is the cautious choice.
| Threshold | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F | Jun 2 | May 29 | May 26 | May 23 | May 20 | May 18 | May 15 | May 12 | May 9 |
| 32°F | May 23 | May 18 | May 15 | May 13 | May 10 | May 8 | May 5 | May 3 | Apr 30 |
| 28°F | May 14 | May 8 | May 5 | May 3 | May 1 | Apr 28 | Apr 25 | Apr 21 | Apr 15 |
| 24°F | May 3 | Apr 29 | Apr 26 | Apr 22 | Apr 19 | Apr 17 | Apr 13 | Apr 9 | Apr 5 |
| 20°F | Apr 25 | Apr 19 | Apr 16 | Apr 13 | Apr 10 | Apr 6 | Apr 3 | Mar 31 | Mar 24 |
| 16°F | Apr 16 | Apr 10 | Apr 6 | Apr 3 | Mar 31 | Mar 28 | Mar 23 | Mar 17 | Mar 9 |
First freeze in fall
The chance of an earlier freeze than the date shown. At 10 percent, one fall in ten freezes before the date.
| Threshold | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F | Sep 7 | Sep 12 | Sep 16 | Sep 20 | Sep 22 | Sep 25 | Sep 27 | Sep 30 | Oct 4 |
| 32°F | Sep 16 | Sep 21 | Sep 25 | Sep 28 | Oct 1 | Oct 3 | Oct 5 | Oct 9 | Oct 14 |
| 28°F | Sep 23 | Sep 28 | Oct 2 | Oct 5 | Oct 8 | Oct 11 | Oct 14 | Oct 18 | Oct 22 |
| 24°F | Sep 30 | Oct 6 | Oct 10 | Oct 14 | Oct 17 | Oct 21 | Oct 24 | Oct 27 | Nov 1 |
| 20°F | Oct 8 | Oct 15 | Oct 19 | Oct 23 | Oct 26 | Oct 29 | Nov 1 | Nov 4 | Nov 10 |
| 16°F | Oct 19 | Oct 25 | Oct 28 | Oct 31 | Nov 3 | Nov 6 | Nov 9 | Nov 14 | Nov 19 |
Growing season length
Days between the last spring and first fall freeze at each threshold, with the chance of a season at least that long.
| Threshold | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F | 140 | 135 | 130 | 127 | 123 | 118 | 115 | 110 | 104 |
| 32°F | 159 | 153 | 149 | 145 | 141 | 138 | 134 | 129 | 123 |
| 28°F | 181 | 174 | 168 | 164 | 160 | 156 | 152 | 147 | 140 |
| 24°F | 201 | 193 | 188 | 184 | 179 | 174 | 170 | 165 | 158 |
| 20°F | 221 | 214 | 208 | 203 | 199 | 194 | 190 | 183 | 175 |
| 16°F | 241 | 234 | 228 | 222 | 217 | 213 | 208 | 202 | 195 |
How often it gets that cold
The share of years with at least one night at or below each temperature.
- 36°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 32°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 28°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 24°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 20°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 16°F or colder
- 100% of years
Degree days
A degree day is one degree of the daily mean temperature beyond a base, for one day. Heating degree days count cold (the fuel a house burns), cooling degree days heat, growing degree days the warmth a crop needs; each crop has its own base.
- Heating degree days, base 65°F
- 7,669
- Cooling degree days, base 65°F
- 580
- Growing degree days, base 40°F
- 4,301
- Growing degree days, base 45°F
- 3,282
- Growing degree days, base 50°F
- 2,404
- Growing degree days, base 55°F
- 1,663
- Growing degree days, base 60°F
- 1,053
Growing degree days by month, base 50°F
Heating and cooling by month
| Month | Heating DD | Cooling DD | Growing DD 50 |
|---|---|---|---|
| January | 1,359 | 0 | 0 |
| February | 1,166 | 0 | 1 |
| March | 977 | 0 | 9 |
| April | 647 | 1 | 38 |
| May | 348 | 10 | 183 |
| June | 97 | 76 | 431 |
| July | 13 | 233 | 685 |
| August | 30 | 199 | 634 |
| September | 190 | 58 | 338 |
| October | 595 | 3 | 77 |
| November | 963 | 0 | 8 |
| December | 1,283 | 0 | 0 |
What this means
NOAA computes these from the daily lows at the station over 1991-2020, fitting the dates of each year's last and first freeze to a distribution, so a date can be stated at any level of risk. 36°F is a frost risk for tender plants on a clear, calm night, since the ground cools below the air above it; 32°F is a freeze; 28°F is a hard freeze that kills most annuals.
The station is 2.3 km from Buffalo. Low ground, valleys and open fields freeze earlier and later than a town center or a hillside.
More
Sources
NOAA NCEI U.S. Climate Normals, 1991-2020, annual and seasonal normals for station USW00094037 (Buffalo Asos). Public domain.