Fairview Frost Dates and Growing Season
Frost and the growing season
NOAA's 1991-2020 freeze probabilities for Erie Intl AP. A median date has an even chance of a later freeze in spring, or an earlier one in fall.
The last spring freeze typically comes around April 26 and the first fall freeze around November 4, a growing season of about 192 days.
- Median at 36°F
- last May 7, first October 23
- Median at 32°F
- last April 26, first November 4
- Median at 28°F
- last April 11, first November 16
Last freeze in spring
The chance of a later freeze than the date shown. At 10 percent, one spring in ten still freezes after the date; planting after the 10 percent date for 32°F is the cautious choice.
| Threshold | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F | May 21 | May 17 | May 14 | May 10 | May 7 | May 4 | Apr 30 | Apr 27 | Apr 23 |
| 32°F | May 13 | May 6 | May 2 | Apr 29 | Apr 26 | Apr 23 | Apr 20 | Apr 16 | Apr 10 |
| 28°F | Apr 25 | Apr 21 | Apr 18 | Apr 15 | Apr 11 | Apr 8 | Apr 6 | Apr 3 | Mar 31 |
| 24°F | Apr 15 | Apr 8 | Apr 5 | Apr 3 | Apr 1 | Mar 30 | Mar 27 | Mar 22 | Mar 16 |
| 20°F | Apr 2 | Mar 30 | Mar 27 | Mar 23 | Mar 20 | Mar 17 | Mar 14 | Mar 10 | Mar 4 |
| 16°F | Mar 25 | Mar 20 | Mar 17 | Mar 15 | Mar 13 | Mar 9 | Mar 5 | Mar 1 | Feb 23 |
First freeze in fall
The chance of an earlier freeze than the date shown. At 10 percent, one fall in ten freezes before the date.
| Threshold | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F | Oct 8 | Oct 14 | Oct 17 | Oct 21 | Oct 23 | Oct 26 | Oct 29 | Nov 1 | Nov 6 |
| 32°F | Oct 21 | Oct 27 | Oct 30 | Nov 1 | Nov 4 | Nov 7 | Nov 9 | Nov 12 | Nov 17 |
| 28°F | Nov 2 | Nov 6 | Nov 9 | Nov 12 | Nov 16 | Nov 19 | Nov 23 | Nov 28 | Dec 3 |
| 24°F | Nov 12 | Nov 17 | Nov 21 | Nov 25 | Nov 28 | Dec 1 | Dec 5 | Dec 9 | Dec 15 |
| 20°F | Nov 23 | Nov 29 | Dec 2 | Dec 6 | Dec 10 | Dec 13 | Dec 17 | Dec 22 | Dec 29 |
| 16°F | Dec 3 | Dec 10 | Dec 15 | Dec 18 | Dec 22 | Dec 26 | Dec 30 | Jan 2 | Jan 10 |
Growing season length
Days between the last spring and first fall freeze at each threshold, with the chance of a season at least that long.
| Threshold | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F | 189 | 183 | 178 | 174 | 170 | 165 | 161 | 156 | 148 |
| 32°F | 214 | 205 | 200 | 196 | 192 | 188 | 184 | 179 | 171 |
| 28°F | 240 | 234 | 228 | 223 | 219 | 214 | 210 | 205 | 198 |
| 24°F | 265 | 256 | 251 | 246 | 241 | 238 | 233 | 227 | 220 |
| 20°F | 286 | 277 | 272 | 268 | 264 | 259 | 254 | 249 | 242 |
| 16°F | 305 | 297 | 292 | 288 | 284 | 279 | 275 | 269 | 262 |
How often it gets that cold
The share of years with at least one night at or below each temperature.
- 36°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 32°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 28°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 24°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 20°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 16°F or colder
- 100% of years
Degree days
A degree day is one degree of the daily mean temperature beyond a base, for one day. Heating degree days count cold (the fuel a house burns), cooling degree days heat, growing degree days the warmth a crop needs; each crop has its own base.
- Heating degree days, base 65°F
- 5,905
- Cooling degree days, base 65°F
- 752
- Growing degree days, base 40°F
- 5,221
- Growing degree days, base 45°F
- 4,044
- Growing degree days, base 50°F
- 3,010
- Growing degree days, base 55°F
- 2,116
- Growing degree days, base 60°F
- 1,361
Growing degree days by month, base 50°F
Heating and cooling by month
| Month | Heating DD | Cooling DD | Growing DD 50 |
|---|---|---|---|
| January | 1,139 | 0 | 3 |
| February | 1,009 | 0 | 4 |
| March | 897 | 1 | 21 |
| April | 534 | 6 | 86 |
| May | 238 | 46 | 293 |
| June | 46 | 144 | 548 |
| July | 5 | 242 | 702 |
| August | 7 | 210 | 668 |
| September | 84 | 90 | 457 |
| October | 346 | 14 | 180 |
| November | 643 | 1 | 43 |
| December | 958 | 0 | 6 |
What this means
NOAA computes these from the daily lows at the station over 1991-2020, fitting the dates of each year's last and first freeze to a distribution, so a date can be stated at any level of risk. 36°F is a frost risk for tender plants on a clear, calm night, since the ground cools below the air above it; 32°F is a freeze; 28°F is a hard freeze that kills most annuals.
The station is 8.1 km from Fairview. Low ground, valleys and open fields freeze earlier and later than a town center or a hillside.
More
Sources
NOAA NCEI U.S. Climate Normals, 1991-2020, annual and seasonal normals for station USW00014860 (Erie Intl AP). Public domain.