Trail Frost Dates and Growing Season
Frost and the growing season
NOAA's 1991-2020 freeze probabilities for Lost Creek Dam. A median date has an even chance of a later freeze in spring, or an earlier one in fall.
The last spring freeze typically comes around April 29 and the first fall freeze around October 17, a growing season of about 171 days.
- Median at 36°F
- last May 18, first October 2
- Median at 32°F
- last April 29, first October 17
- Median at 28°F
- last March 31, first November 1
Last freeze in spring
The chance of a later freeze than the date shown. At 10 percent, one spring in ten still freezes after the date; planting after the 10 percent date for 32°F is the cautious choice.
| Threshold | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F | Jun 7 | May 31 | May 26 | May 21 | May 18 | May 14 | May 11 | May 6 | May 1 |
| 32°F | May 19 | May 11 | May 5 | May 1 | Apr 29 | Apr 25 | Apr 21 | Apr 15 | Apr 7 |
| 28°F | Apr 28 | Apr 19 | Apr 11 | Apr 5 | Mar 31 | Mar 26 | Mar 19 | Mar 12 | Mar 3 |
| 24°F | Mar 25 | Mar 14 | Mar 7 | Mar 1 | Feb 25 | Feb 19 | Feb 10 | Jan 31 | Jan 16 |
| 20°F | Feb 24 | Feb 15 | Feb 4 | Jan 26 | Jan 15 | Jan 6 | Dec 31 | Dec 21 | Dec 9 |
| 16°F | Jan 24 | Jan 14 | Jan 6 | Jan 1 | Dec 28 | Dec 24 | Dec 16 | Dec 10 | Dec 2 |
First freeze in fall
The chance of an earlier freeze than the date shown. At 10 percent, one fall in ten freezes before the date.
| Threshold | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F | Sep 17 | Sep 22 | Sep 26 | Sep 29 | Oct 2 | Oct 4 | Oct 7 | Oct 11 | Oct 15 |
| 32°F | Oct 1 | Oct 6 | Oct 10 | Oct 13 | Oct 17 | Oct 20 | Oct 23 | Oct 28 | Nov 1 |
| 28°F | Oct 16 | Oct 21 | Oct 24 | Oct 28 | Nov 1 | Nov 4 | Nov 10 | Nov 18 | Dec 1 |
| 24°F | Nov 1 | Nov 6 | Nov 12 | Nov 21 | Nov 27 | Dec 2 | Dec 9 | Dec 17 | Dec 27 |
| 20°F | Nov 9 | Nov 26 | Dec 2 | Dec 8 | Dec 13 | Dec 21 | Dec 28 | Jan 4 | Jan 20 |
| 16°F | Nov 29 | Dec 4 | Dec 9 | Dec 14 | Dec 20 | Dec 25 | Dec 30 | Jan 4 | Jan 16 |
Growing season length
Days between the last spring and first fall freeze at each threshold, with the chance of a season at least that long.
| Threshold | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F | 158 | 149 | 144 | 140 | 135 | 130 | 125 | 119 | 109 |
| 32°F | 197 | 188 | 182 | 177 | 171 | 166 | 161 | 154 | 146 |
| 28°F | 251 | 240 | 231 | 223 | 216 | 209 | 203 | 193 | 183 |
| 24°F | 315 | 302 | 290 | 280 | 272 | 264 | 254 | 245 | 233 |
| 20°F | 365 | 361 | 349 | 340 | 333 | 324 | 314 | 305 | 290 |
| 16°F | 365 | 365 | 365 | 365 | 365 | 365 | 357 | 347 | 336 |
How often it gets that cold
The share of years with at least one night at or below each temperature.
- 36°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 32°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 28°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 24°F or colder
- 99% of years
- 20°F or colder
- 82% of years
- 16°F or colder
- 37% of years
Degree days
A degree day is one degree of the daily mean temperature beyond a base, for one day. Heating degree days count cold (the fuel a house burns), cooling degree days heat, growing degree days the warmth a crop needs; each crop has its own base.
- Heating degree days, base 65°F
- 4,683
- Cooling degree days, base 65°F
- 564
- Growing degree days, base 40°F
- 5,219
- Growing degree days, base 45°F
- 3,821
- Growing degree days, base 50°F
- 2,697
- Growing degree days, base 55°F
- 1,799
- Growing degree days, base 60°F
- 1,095
Growing degree days by month, base 50°F
Heating and cooling by month
| Month | Heating DD | Cooling DD | Growing DD 50 |
|---|---|---|---|
| January | 780 | 0 | 1 |
| February | 629 | 0 | 5 |
| March | 584 | 0 | 29 |
| April | 438 | 2 | 91 |
| May | 251 | 17 | 246 |
| June | 109 | 57 | 399 |
| July | 15 | 206 | 656 |
| August | 15 | 196 | 646 |
| September | 86 | 81 | 447 |
| October | 345 | 6 | 161 |
| November | 622 | 0 | 15 |
| December | 809 | 0 | 2 |
What this means
NOAA computes these from the daily lows at the station over 1991-2020, fitting the dates of each year's last and first freeze to a distribution, so a date can be stated at any level of risk. 36°F is a frost risk for tender plants on a clear, calm night, since the ground cools below the air above it; 32°F is a freeze; 28°F is a hard freeze that kills most annuals.
The station is 11.4 km from Trail. Low ground, valleys and open fields freeze earlier and later than a town center or a hillside.
More
Sources
NOAA NCEI U.S. Climate Normals, 1991-2020, annual and seasonal normals for station USC00355055 (Lost Creek Dam). Public domain.