Phoenix Frost Dates and Growing Season
Frost and the growing season
NOAA's 1991-2020 freeze probabilities for Ashland. A median date has an even chance of a later freeze in spring, or an earlier one in fall.
The last spring freeze typically comes around May 6 and the first fall freeze around October 8, a growing season of about 154 days.
- Median at 36°F
- last May 29, first September 23
- Median at 32°F
- last May 6, first October 8
- Median at 28°F
- last April 15, first October 26
Last freeze in spring
The chance of a later freeze than the date shown. At 10 percent, one spring in ten still freezes after the date; planting after the 10 percent date for 32°F is the cautious choice.
| Threshold | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F | Jun 17 | Jun 10 | Jun 6 | Jun 2 | May 29 | May 25 | May 21 | May 18 | May 12 |
| 32°F | May 27 | May 19 | May 14 | May 10 | May 6 | May 3 | Apr 30 | Apr 27 | Apr 20 |
| 28°F | May 4 | Apr 29 | Apr 24 | Apr 20 | Apr 15 | Apr 11 | Apr 6 | Apr 1 | Mar 27 |
| 24°F | Apr 10 | Apr 2 | Mar 29 | Mar 24 | Mar 19 | Mar 14 | Mar 8 | Mar 1 | Feb 21 |
| 20°F | Mar 10 | Mar 1 | Feb 25 | Feb 18 | Feb 12 | Feb 4 | Jan 26 | Jan 12 | Dec 28 |
| 16°F | Feb 16 | Jan 31 | Jan 22 | Jan 11 | Dec 31 | Dec 26 | Dec 20 | Dec 14 | Dec 4 |
First freeze in fall
The chance of an earlier freeze than the date shown. At 10 percent, one fall in ten freezes before the date.
| Threshold | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F | Sep 6 | Sep 12 | Sep 15 | Sep 19 | Sep 23 | Sep 26 | Sep 30 | Oct 4 | Oct 9 |
| 32°F | Sep 21 | Sep 28 | Oct 1 | Oct 5 | Oct 8 | Oct 12 | Oct 15 | Oct 20 | Oct 26 |
| 28°F | Oct 10 | Oct 16 | Oct 20 | Oct 23 | Oct 26 | Oct 30 | Nov 2 | Nov 7 | Nov 16 |
| 24°F | Oct 22 | Oct 29 | Nov 2 | Nov 7 | Nov 12 | Nov 18 | Nov 24 | Dec 1 | Dec 8 |
| 20°F | Nov 7 | Nov 15 | Nov 21 | Nov 29 | Dec 4 | Dec 10 | Dec 17 | Dec 27 | Jan 11 |
| 16°F | Nov 20 | Dec 1 | Dec 5 | Dec 11 | Dec 16 | Dec 21 | Dec 28 | Jan 5 | Jan 25 |
Growing season length
Days between the last spring and first fall freeze at each threshold, with the chance of a season at least that long.
| Threshold | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F | 138 | 130 | 124 | 118 | 114 | 109 | 105 | 99 | 91 |
| 32°F | 177 | 170 | 164 | 159 | 154 | 149 | 143 | 137 | 128 |
| 28°F | 220 | 211 | 205 | 198 | 192 | 187 | 182 | 176 | 168 |
| 24°F | 274 | 262 | 252 | 244 | 238 | 231 | 225 | 218 | 207 |
| 20°F | 340 | 328 | 317 | 309 | 300 | 290 | 280 | 270 | 256 |
| 16°F | 365 | 365 | 365 | 365 | 355 | 346 | 338 | 329 | 312 |
How often it gets that cold
The share of years with at least one night at or below each temperature.
- 36°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 32°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 28°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 24°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 20°F or colder
- 96% of years
- 16°F or colder
- 59% of years
Degree days
A degree day is one degree of the daily mean temperature beyond a base, for one day. Heating degree days count cold (the fuel a house burns), cooling degree days heat, growing degree days the warmth a crop needs; each crop has its own base.
- Heating degree days, base 65°F
- 5,023
- Cooling degree days, base 65°F
- 381
- Growing degree days, base 40°F
- 4,783
- Growing degree days, base 45°F
- 3,427
- Growing degree days, base 50°F
- 2,333
- Growing degree days, base 55°F
- 1,486
- Growing degree days, base 60°F
- 843
Growing degree days by month, base 50°F
Heating and cooling by month
| Month | Heating DD | Cooling DD | Growing DD 50 |
|---|---|---|---|
| January | 797 | 0 | 4 |
| February | 652 | 0 | 6 |
| March | 623 | 0 | 18 |
| April | 480 | 0 | 62 |
| May | 286 | 11 | 211 |
| June | 127 | 42 | 366 |
| July | 22 | 157 | 600 |
| August | 24 | 130 | 570 |
| September | 128 | 40 | 364 |
| October | 403 | 1 | 113 |
| November | 650 | 0 | 15 |
| December | 831 | 0 | 4 |
What this means
NOAA computes these from the daily lows at the station over 1991-2020, fitting the dates of each year's last and first freeze to a distribution, so a date can be stated at any level of risk. 36°F is a frost risk for tender plants on a clear, calm night, since the ground cools below the air above it; 32°F is a freeze; 28°F is a hard freeze that kills most annuals.
The station is 10.9 km from Phoenix. Low ground, valleys and open fields freeze earlier and later than a town center or a hillside.
More
Sources
NOAA NCEI U.S. Climate Normals, 1991-2020, annual and seasonal normals for station USC00350304 (Ashland). Public domain.