Merlin Frost Dates and Growing Season
Frost and the growing season
NOAA's 1991-2020 freeze probabilities for Grants Pass. A median date has an even chance of a later freeze in spring, or an earlier one in fall.
The last spring freeze typically comes around April 8 and the first fall freeze around October 28, a growing season of about 201 days.
- Median at 36°F
- last May 2, first October 11
- Median at 32°F
- last April 8, first October 28
- Median at 28°F
- last March 8, first November 16
Last freeze in spring
The chance of a later freeze than the date shown. At 10 percent, one spring in ten still freezes after the date; planting after the 10 percent date for 32°F is the cautious choice.
| Threshold | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F | May 30 | May 20 | May 13 | May 6 | May 2 | Apr 30 | Apr 26 | Apr 20 | Apr 14 |
| 32°F | May 1 | Apr 24 | Apr 19 | Apr 13 | Apr 8 | Apr 3 | Mar 31 | Mar 26 | Mar 15 |
| 28°F | Apr 5 | Mar 29 | Mar 23 | Mar 16 | Mar 8 | Feb 28 | Feb 22 | Feb 14 | Jan 19 |
| 24°F | Mar 8 | Feb 28 | Feb 20 | Feb 12 | Jan 29 | Jan 16 | Jan 3 | Dec 23 | Dec 6 |
| 20°F | Feb 20 | Jan 28 | Jan 16 | Jan 5 | Dec 31 | Dec 24 | Dec 15 | Dec 10 | Dec 1 |
| 16°F | Jan 16 | Jan 5 | Dec 31 | Dec 26 | Dec 24 | Dec 15 | Dec 13 | Dec 11 | Dec 7 |
First freeze in fall
The chance of an earlier freeze than the date shown. At 10 percent, one fall in ten freezes before the date.
| Threshold | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F | Sep 23 | Sep 30 | Oct 3 | Oct 7 | Oct 11 | Oct 15 | Oct 19 | Oct 24 | Oct 31 |
| 32°F | Oct 8 | Oct 15 | Oct 19 | Oct 23 | Oct 28 | Nov 1 | Nov 6 | Nov 13 | Nov 24 |
| 28°F | Oct 22 | Oct 28 | Nov 2 | Nov 9 | Nov 16 | Nov 25 | Dec 2 | Dec 11 | Dec 27 |
| 24°F | Nov 3 | Nov 16 | Nov 28 | Dec 3 | Dec 11 | Dec 21 | Jan 2 | Jan 14 | Feb 6 |
| 20°F | Nov 19 | Dec 1 | Dec 7 | Dec 12 | Dec 20 | Dec 28 | Jan 5 | Jan 17 | Feb 6 |
| 16°F | Dec 3 | Dec 8 | Dec 10 | Dec 13 | Dec 20 | Dec 23 | Dec 30 | Jan 4 | Jan 15 |
Growing season length
Days between the last spring and first fall freeze at each threshold, with the chance of a season at least that long.
| Threshold | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F | 187 | 178 | 170 | 165 | 160 | 155 | 149 | 142 | 132 |
| 32°F | 234 | 223 | 215 | 208 | 201 | 195 | 189 | 182 | 172 |
| 28°F | 307 | 289 | 276 | 266 | 255 | 246 | 239 | 225 | 213 |
| 24°F | 365 | 357 | 344 | 334 | 323 | 314 | 304 | 291 | 275 |
| 20°F | 365 | 365 | 365 | 365 | 365 | 365 | 355 | 344 | 329 |
| 16°F | 365 | 365 | 365 | 365 | 365 | 365 | 365 | 365 | 359 |
How often it gets that cold
The share of years with at least one night at or below each temperature.
- 36°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 32°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 28°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 24°F or colder
- 83% of years
- 20°F or colder
- 40% of years
- 16°F or colder
- 11% of years
Degree days
A degree day is one degree of the daily mean temperature beyond a base, for one day. Heating degree days count cold (the fuel a house burns), cooling degree days heat, growing degree days the warmth a crop needs; each crop has its own base.
- Heating degree days, base 65°F
- 4,176
- Cooling degree days, base 65°F
- 765
- Growing degree days, base 40°F
- 5,855
- Growing degree days, base 45°F
- 4,348
- Growing degree days, base 50°F
- 3,106
- Growing degree days, base 55°F
- 2,117
- Growing degree days, base 60°F
- 1,350
Growing degree days by month, base 50°F
Heating and cooling by month
| Month | Heating DD | Cooling DD | Growing DD 50 |
|---|---|---|---|
| January | 730 | 0 | 4 |
| February | 567 | 0 | 14 |
| March | 519 | 0 | 45 |
| April | 375 | 3 | 120 |
| May | 195 | 36 | 312 |
| June | 75 | 101 | 476 |
| July | 9 | 269 | 725 |
| August | 9 | 250 | 705 |
| September | 67 | 100 | 483 |
| October | 302 | 6 | 188 |
| November | 566 | 0 | 29 |
| December | 763 | 0 | 5 |
What this means
NOAA computes these from the daily lows at the station over 1991-2020, fitting the dates of each year's last and first freeze to a distribution, so a date can be stated at any level of risk. 36°F is a frost risk for tender plants on a clear, calm night, since the ground cools below the air above it; 32°F is a freeze; 28°F is a hard freeze that kills most annuals.
The station is 13.1 km from Merlin. Low ground, valleys and open fields freeze earlier and later than a town center or a hillside.
More
Sources
NOAA NCEI U.S. Climate Normals, 1991-2020, annual and seasonal normals for station USC00353445 (Grants Pass). Public domain.