Neuse Forest climate

Neuse Forest Frost Dates and Growing Season

NOAA 1991-2020 normals for Cherry Point Mcas, 9.1 km from Neuse Forest, elevation 29 ft

Frost and the growing season

NOAA's 1991-2020 freeze probabilities for Cherry Point Mcas. A median date has an even chance of a later freeze in spring, or an earlier one in fall.

The last spring freeze typically comes around March 19 and the first fall freeze around November 22, a growing season of about 249 days.

Median at 36°F
last March 31, first November 10
Median at 32°F
last March 19, first November 22
Median at 28°F
last March 3, first December 9

Last freeze in spring

The chance of a later freeze than the date shown. At 10 percent, one spring in ten still freezes after the date; planting after the 10 percent date for 32°F is the cautious choice.

Threshold10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
36°FApr 14Apr 8Apr 5Apr 3Mar 31Mar 28Mar 25Mar 21Mar 15
32°FApr 4Mar 30Mar 27Mar 23Mar 19Mar 16Mar 11Mar 5Feb 26
28°FMar 25Mar 18Mar 13Mar 8Mar 3Feb 28Feb 23Feb 15Feb 4
24°FMar 12Mar 3Feb 27Feb 21Feb 13Feb 6Jan 31Jan 26Jan 12
20°FFeb 27Feb 18Feb 7Jan 31Jan 28Jan 23Jan 16Jan 10Jan 1
16°FFeb 13Feb 2Jan 30Jan 26Jan 19Jan 16Jan 12Jan 6Dec 31

First freeze in fall

The chance of an earlier freeze than the date shown. At 10 percent, one fall in ten freezes before the date.

Threshold10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
36°FOct 28Nov 1Nov 3Nov 6Nov 10Nov 13Nov 16Nov 20Nov 27
32°FNov 5Nov 11Nov 15Nov 19Nov 22Nov 26Dec 1Dec 4Dec 12
28°FNov 16Nov 23Nov 29Dec 3Dec 9Dec 15Dec 22Dec 29Jan 5
24°FDec 2Dec 9Dec 17Dec 24Dec 30Jan 2Jan 8Jan 14Jan 25
20°FDec 14Dec 24Dec 31Jan 3Jan 10Jan 15Jan 21Jan 27Feb 5
16°FDec 25Jan 2Jan 6Jan 11Jan 16Jan 19Jan 24Jan 30Feb 5

Growing season length

Days between the last spring and first fall freeze at each threshold, with the chance of a season at least that long.

Threshold10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
36°F247238233228224219215210204
32°F276267261255249244238232225
28°F314303294286279272266258250
24°F350336329321313306299291281
20°F365365361351343335330320306
16°F365365365365365365356344334

How often it gets that cold

The share of years with at least one night at or below each temperature.

36°F or colder
100% of years
32°F or colder
100% of years
28°F or colder
100% of years
24°F or colder
96% of years
20°F or colder
72% of years
16°F or colder
35% of years

Degree days

A degree day is one degree of the daily mean temperature beyond a base, for one day. Heating degree days count cold (the fuel a house burns), cooling degree days heat, growing degree days the warmth a crop needs; each crop has its own base.

Heating degree days, base 65°F
2,348
Cooling degree days, base 65°F
2,118
Growing degree days, base 40°F
8,981
Growing degree days, base 45°F
7,300
Growing degree days, base 50°F
5,756
Growing degree days, base 55°F
4,368
Growing degree days, base 60°F
3,152

Growing degree days by month, base 50°F

Heating and cooling by month

MonthHeating DDCooling DDGrowing DD 50
January570279
February457588
March33715195
April12567396
May22200643
June1395844
July0504969
August0473938
September3325772
October79105493
November28322224
December4736116

What this means

NOAA computes these from the daily lows at the station over 1991-2020, fitting the dates of each year's last and first freeze to a distribution, so a date can be stated at any level of risk. 36°F is a frost risk for tender plants on a clear, calm night, since the ground cools below the air above it; 32°F is a freeze; 28°F is a hard freeze that kills most annuals.

The station is 9.1 km from Neuse Forest. Low ground, valleys and open fields freeze earlier and later than a town center or a hillside.

More

Sources

NOAA NCEI U.S. Climate Normals, 1991-2020, annual and seasonal normals for station USW00013754 (Cherry Point Mcas). Public domain.