Moncure Frost Dates and Growing Season
Frost and the growing season
NOAA's 1991-2020 freeze probabilities for Sanford 8 Ne. A median date has an even chance of a later freeze in spring, or an earlier one in fall.
The last spring freeze typically comes around April 10 and the first fall freeze around October 30, a growing season of about 203 days.
- Median at 36°F
- last April 22, first October 21
- Median at 32°F
- last April 10, first October 30
- Median at 28°F
- last March 28, first November 7
Last freeze in spring
The chance of a later freeze than the date shown. At 10 percent, one spring in ten still freezes after the date; planting after the 10 percent date for 32°F is the cautious choice.
| Threshold | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F | May 9 | May 4 | Apr 29 | Apr 25 | Apr 22 | Apr 19 | Apr 16 | Apr 13 | Apr 7 |
| 32°F | Apr 25 | Apr 19 | Apr 16 | Apr 13 | Apr 10 | Apr 6 | Apr 3 | Mar 31 | Mar 26 |
| 28°F | Apr 11 | Apr 6 | Apr 2 | Mar 30 | Mar 28 | Mar 24 | Mar 20 | Mar 16 | Mar 9 |
| 24°F | Mar 31 | Mar 27 | Mar 22 | Mar 18 | Mar 13 | Mar 8 | Mar 3 | Feb 28 | Feb 20 |
| 20°F | Mar 20 | Mar 14 | Mar 7 | Mar 2 | Feb 26 | Feb 22 | Feb 15 | Feb 7 | Jan 28 |
| 16°F | Mar 8 | Feb 28 | Feb 21 | Feb 13 | Feb 5 | Jan 31 | Jan 27 | Jan 18 | Jan 6 |
First freeze in fall
The chance of an earlier freeze than the date shown. At 10 percent, one fall in ten freezes before the date.
| Threshold | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F | Oct 8 | Oct 12 | Oct 15 | Oct 18 | Oct 21 | Oct 23 | Oct 26 | Oct 29 | Nov 2 |
| 32°F | Oct 15 | Oct 21 | Oct 24 | Oct 27 | Oct 30 | Nov 1 | Nov 3 | Nov 6 | Nov 12 |
| 28°F | Oct 26 | Oct 30 | Nov 2 | Nov 4 | Nov 7 | Nov 11 | Nov 14 | Nov 19 | Nov 25 |
| 24°F | Nov 4 | Nov 10 | Nov 14 | Nov 18 | Nov 22 | Nov 26 | Nov 30 | Dec 3 | Dec 9 |
| 20°F | Nov 18 | Nov 24 | Nov 30 | Dec 3 | Dec 5 | Dec 9 | Dec 15 | Dec 26 | Jan 4 |
| 16°F | Dec 1 | Dec 6 | Dec 11 | Dec 18 | Dec 26 | Jan 1 | Jan 6 | Jan 13 | Jan 23 |
Growing season length
Days between the last spring and first fall freeze at each threshold, with the chance of a season at least that long.
| Threshold | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F | 199 | 193 | 189 | 186 | 181 | 177 | 173 | 167 | 160 |
| 32°F | 223 | 217 | 211 | 207 | 203 | 199 | 194 | 189 | 182 |
| 28°F | 249 | 241 | 234 | 230 | 225 | 221 | 217 | 212 | 204 |
| 24°F | 283 | 271 | 264 | 258 | 252 | 247 | 243 | 236 | 228 |
| 20°F | 319 | 307 | 299 | 292 | 284 | 278 | 271 | 264 | 254 |
| 16°F | 356 | 342 | 334 | 326 | 318 | 310 | 304 | 297 | 283 |
How often it gets that cold
The share of years with at least one night at or below each temperature.
- 36°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 32°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 28°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 24°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 20°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 16°F or colder
- 95% of years
Degree days
A degree day is one degree of the daily mean temperature beyond a base, for one day. Heating degree days count cold (the fuel a house burns), cooling degree days heat, growing degree days the warmth a crop needs; each crop has its own base.
- Heating degree days, base 65°F
- 3,180
- Cooling degree days, base 65°F
- 1,669
- Growing degree days, base 40°F
- 7,833
- Growing degree days, base 45°F
- 6,284
- Growing degree days, base 50°F
- 4,889
- Growing degree days, base 55°F
- 3,652
- Growing degree days, base 60°F
- 2,578
Growing degree days by month, base 50°F
Heating and cooling by month
| Month | Heating DD | Cooling DD | Growing DD 50 |
|---|---|---|---|
| January | 718 | 0 | 37 |
| February | 562 | 2 | 51 |
| March | 410 | 11 | 159 |
| April | 170 | 55 | 346 |
| May | 49 | 157 | 574 |
| June | 4 | 327 | 772 |
| July | 0 | 448 | 913 |
| August | 0 | 389 | 854 |
| September | 16 | 221 | 655 |
| October | 172 | 52 | 355 |
| November | 435 | 6 | 120 |
| December | 645 | 2 | 53 |
What this means
NOAA computes these from the daily lows at the station over 1991-2020, fitting the dates of each year's last and first freeze to a distribution, so a date can be stated at any level of risk. 36°F is a frost risk for tender plants on a clear, calm night, since the ground cools below the air above it; 32°F is a freeze; 28°F is a hard freeze that kills most annuals.
The station is 10.1 km from Moncure. Low ground, valleys and open fields freeze earlier and later than a town center or a hillside.
More
Sources
NOAA NCEI U.S. Climate Normals, 1991-2020, annual and seasonal normals for station USC00317656 (Sanford 8 Ne). Public domain.