Elon Frost Dates and Growing Season
Frost and the growing season
NOAA's 1991-2020 freeze probabilities for Burlington Alamance AP. A median date has an even chance of a later freeze in spring, or an earlier one in fall.
The last spring freeze typically comes around April 1 and the first fall freeze around November 2, a growing season of about 215 days.
- Median at 36°F
- last April 14, first October 25
- Median at 32°F
- last April 1, first November 2
- Median at 28°F
- last March 18, first November 13
Last freeze in spring
The chance of a later freeze than the date shown. At 10 percent, one spring in ten still freezes after the date; planting after the 10 percent date for 32°F is the cautious choice.
| Threshold | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F | May 3 | Apr 26 | Apr 21 | Apr 17 | Apr 14 | Apr 11 | Apr 7 | Apr 4 | Mar 31 |
| 32°F | Apr 17 | Apr 12 | Apr 7 | Apr 4 | Apr 1 | Mar 28 | Mar 24 | Mar 19 | Mar 13 |
| 28°F | Apr 3 | Mar 30 | Mar 25 | Mar 21 | Mar 18 | Mar 15 | Mar 11 | Mar 7 | Mar 1 |
| 24°F | Mar 22 | Mar 18 | Mar 14 | Mar 10 | Mar 5 | Mar 1 | Feb 26 | Feb 21 | Feb 11 |
| 20°F | Mar 13 | Mar 7 | Mar 2 | Feb 27 | Feb 22 | Feb 16 | Feb 8 | Feb 1 | Jan 22 |
| 16°F | Mar 1 | Feb 23 | Feb 15 | Feb 6 | Feb 1 | Jan 29 | Jan 23 | Jan 17 | Jan 8 |
First freeze in fall
The chance of an earlier freeze than the date shown. At 10 percent, one fall in ten freezes before the date.
| Threshold | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F | Oct 13 | Oct 17 | Oct 21 | Oct 23 | Oct 25 | Oct 27 | Oct 30 | Nov 1 | Nov 5 |
| 32°F | Oct 21 | Oct 26 | Oct 29 | Nov 1 | Nov 2 | Nov 5 | Nov 7 | Nov 11 | Nov 16 |
| 28°F | Nov 1 | Nov 4 | Nov 7 | Nov 10 | Nov 13 | Nov 16 | Nov 19 | Nov 23 | Nov 30 |
| 24°F | Nov 9 | Nov 14 | Nov 17 | Nov 21 | Nov 26 | Nov 30 | Dec 3 | Dec 9 | Dec 20 |
| 20°F | Nov 21 | Nov 28 | Dec 3 | Dec 8 | Dec 13 | Dec 20 | Dec 28 | Jan 4 | Jan 15 |
| 16°F | Dec 6 | Dec 15 | Dec 25 | Jan 1 | Jan 5 | Jan 10 | Jan 16 | Jan 23 | Feb 1 |
Growing season length
Days between the last spring and first fall freeze at each threshold, with the chance of a season at least that long.
| Threshold | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F | 211 | 205 | 200 | 197 | 192 | 188 | 183 | 178 | 171 |
| 32°F | 237 | 229 | 224 | 220 | 215 | 211 | 207 | 202 | 194 |
| 28°F | 262 | 254 | 248 | 243 | 239 | 235 | 231 | 226 | 219 |
| 24°F | 297 | 286 | 277 | 270 | 265 | 260 | 255 | 248 | 240 |
| 20°F | 331 | 320 | 311 | 303 | 297 | 290 | 282 | 275 | 266 |
| 16°F | 365 | 356 | 345 | 336 | 332 | 325 | 316 | 308 | 299 |
How often it gets that cold
The share of years with at least one night at or below each temperature.
- 36°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 32°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 28°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 24°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 20°F or colder
- 99% of years
- 16°F or colder
- 87% of years
Degree days
A degree day is one degree of the daily mean temperature beyond a base, for one day. Heating degree days count cold (the fuel a house burns), cooling degree days heat, growing degree days the warmth a crop needs; each crop has its own base.
- Heating degree days, base 65°F
- 3,268
- Cooling degree days, base 65°F
- 1,737
- Growing degree days, base 40°F
- 7,840
- Growing degree days, base 45°F
- 6,302
- Growing degree days, base 50°F
- 4,922
- Growing degree days, base 55°F
- 3,701
- Growing degree days, base 60°F
- 2,638
Growing degree days by month, base 50°F
Heating and cooling by month
| Month | Heating DD | Cooling DD | Growing DD 50 |
|---|---|---|---|
| January | 746 | 1 | 33 |
| February | 584 | 2 | 49 |
| March | 430 | 10 | 142 |
| April | 179 | 51 | 336 |
| May | 45 | 160 | 580 |
| June | 1 | 342 | 790 |
| July | 0 | 470 | 935 |
| August | 0 | 419 | 883 |
| September | 16 | 230 | 664 |
| October | 170 | 48 | 352 |
| November | 436 | 4 | 111 |
| December | 661 | 2 | 48 |
What this means
NOAA computes these from the daily lows at the station over 1991-2020, fitting the dates of each year's last and first freeze to a distribution, so a date can be stated at any level of risk. 36°F is a frost risk for tender plants on a clear, calm night, since the ground cools below the air above it; 32°F is a freeze; 28°F is a hard freeze that kills most annuals.
The station is 6.8 km from Elon. Low ground, valleys and open fields freeze earlier and later than a town center or a hillside.
More
Sources
NOAA NCEI U.S. Climate Normals, 1991-2020, annual and seasonal normals for station USW00093783 (Burlington Alamance AP). Public domain.