Efland Frost Dates and Growing Season
Frost and the growing season
NOAA's 1991-2020 freeze probabilities for Durham 11 W. A median date has an even chance of a later freeze in spring, or an earlier one in fall.
The last spring freeze typically comes around March 31 and the first fall freeze around November 4, a growing season of about 217 days.
- Median at 36°F
- last April 15, first October 26
- Median at 32°F
- last March 31, first November 4
- Median at 28°F
- last March 19, first November 15
Last freeze in spring
The chance of a later freeze than the date shown. At 10 percent, one spring in ten still freezes after the date; planting after the 10 percent date for 32°F is the cautious choice.
| Threshold | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F | May 6 | Apr 28 | Apr 22 | Apr 18 | Apr 15 | Apr 11 | Apr 7 | Apr 3 | Mar 30 |
| 32°F | Apr 19 | Apr 11 | Apr 6 | Apr 3 | Mar 31 | Mar 28 | Mar 24 | Mar 20 | Mar 14 |
| 28°F | Apr 5 | Mar 31 | Mar 27 | Mar 23 | Mar 19 | Mar 15 | Mar 11 | Mar 6 | Feb 28 |
| 24°F | Mar 24 | Mar 18 | Mar 14 | Mar 10 | Mar 6 | Mar 1 | Feb 26 | Feb 20 | Feb 9 |
| 20°F | Mar 14 | Mar 6 | Mar 1 | Feb 26 | Feb 20 | Feb 12 | Feb 6 | Jan 31 | Jan 20 |
| 16°F | Mar 3 | Feb 23 | Feb 12 | Feb 4 | Jan 31 | Jan 27 | Jan 20 | Jan 14 | Jan 5 |
First freeze in fall
The chance of an earlier freeze than the date shown. At 10 percent, one fall in ten freezes before the date.
| Threshold | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F | Oct 14 | Oct 18 | Oct 21 | Oct 24 | Oct 26 | Oct 28 | Oct 31 | Nov 2 | Nov 5 |
| 32°F | Oct 22 | Oct 27 | Oct 31 | Nov 2 | Nov 4 | Nov 6 | Nov 9 | Nov 13 | Nov 18 |
| 28°F | Nov 3 | Nov 6 | Nov 10 | Nov 12 | Nov 15 | Nov 19 | Nov 23 | Nov 29 | Dec 4 |
| 24°F | Nov 12 | Nov 18 | Nov 23 | Nov 27 | Dec 1 | Dec 4 | Dec 9 | Dec 17 | Dec 28 |
| 20°F | Nov 25 | Dec 2 | Dec 8 | Dec 13 | Dec 21 | Dec 29 | Jan 3 | Jan 10 | Jan 19 |
| 16°F | Dec 9 | Dec 20 | Dec 30 | Jan 2 | Jan 8 | Jan 13 | Jan 17 | Jan 24 | Feb 2 |
Growing season length
Days between the last spring and first fall freeze at each threshold, with the chance of a season at least that long.
| Threshold | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F | 214 | 207 | 202 | 198 | 193 | 189 | 185 | 178 | 170 |
| 32°F | 240 | 231 | 225 | 221 | 217 | 213 | 208 | 202 | 194 |
| 28°F | 269 | 260 | 254 | 250 | 244 | 239 | 233 | 227 | 219 |
| 24°F | 306 | 295 | 287 | 280 | 275 | 269 | 262 | 254 | 245 |
| 20°F | 342 | 330 | 320 | 312 | 306 | 299 | 292 | 284 | 271 |
| 16°F | 365 | 362 | 350 | 342 | 335 | 330 | 320 | 311 | 300 |
How often it gets that cold
The share of years with at least one night at or below each temperature.
- 36°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 32°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 28°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 24°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 20°F or colder
- 99% of years
- 16°F or colder
- 83% of years
Degree days
A degree day is one degree of the daily mean temperature beyond a base, for one day. Heating degree days count cold (the fuel a house burns), cooling degree days heat, growing degree days the warmth a crop needs; each crop has its own base.
- Heating degree days, base 65°F
- 3,496
- Cooling degree days, base 65°F
- 1,380
- Growing degree days, base 40°F
- 7,300
- Growing degree days, base 45°F
- 5,793
- Growing degree days, base 50°F
- 4,441
- Growing degree days, base 55°F
- 3,253
- Growing degree days, base 60°F
- 2,231
Growing degree days by month, base 50°F
Heating and cooling by month
| Month | Heating DD | Cooling DD | Growing DD 50 |
|---|---|---|---|
| January | 769 | 0 | 27 |
| February | 612 | 1 | 46 |
| March | 466 | 6 | 123 |
| April | 210 | 31 | 289 |
| May | 67 | 109 | 507 |
| June | 3 | 265 | 711 |
| July | 0 | 394 | 859 |
| August | 0 | 351 | 815 |
| September | 24 | 184 | 610 |
| October | 198 | 37 | 316 |
| November | 460 | 3 | 95 |
| December | 687 | 1 | 43 |
What this means
NOAA computes these from the daily lows at the station over 1991-2020, fitting the dates of each year's last and first freeze to a distribution, so a date can be stated at any level of risk. 36°F is a frost risk for tender plants on a clear, calm night, since the ground cools below the air above it; 32°F is a freeze; 28°F is a hard freeze that kills most annuals.
The station is 14 km from Efland. Low ground, valleys and open fields freeze earlier and later than a town center or a hillside.
More
Sources
NOAA NCEI U.S. Climate Normals, 1991-2020, annual and seasonal normals for station USW00003758 (Durham 11 W). Public domain.