Dunkirk climate

Dunkirk Frost Dates and Growing Season

NOAA 1991-2020 normals for Fredonia, 3.8 km from Dunkirk, elevation 760 ft

Frost and the growing season

NOAA's 1991-2020 freeze probabilities for Fredonia. A median date has an even chance of a later freeze in spring, or an earlier one in fall.

The last spring freeze typically comes around April 25 and the first fall freeze around November 1, a growing season of about 185 days.

Median at 36°F
last May 6, first October 16
Median at 32°F
last April 25, first November 1
Median at 28°F
last April 14, first November 12

Last freeze in spring

The chance of a later freeze than the date shown. At 10 percent, one spring in ten still freezes after the date; planting after the 10 percent date for 32°F is the cautious choice.

Threshold10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
36°FMay 21May 17May 13May 9May 6May 3Apr 30Apr 28Apr 23
32°FMay 9May 4Apr 30Apr 28Apr 25Apr 23Apr 20Apr 17Apr 12
28°FApr 27Apr 22Apr 19Apr 17Apr 14Apr 11Apr 8Apr 4Apr 1
24°FApr 17Apr 12Apr 8Apr 5Apr 3Apr 1Mar 30Mar 26Mar 20
20°FApr 6Apr 2Mar 31Mar 28Mar 24Mar 21Mar 18Mar 14Mar 9
16°FMar 29Mar 24Mar 21Mar 18Mar 16Mar 13Mar 10Mar 6Feb 28

First freeze in fall

The chance of an earlier freeze than the date shown. At 10 percent, one fall in ten freezes before the date.

Threshold10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
36°FOct 2Oct 6Oct 10Oct 13Oct 16Oct 20Oct 23Oct 27Nov 1
32°FOct 13Oct 20Oct 25Oct 28Nov 1Nov 3Nov 5Nov 10Nov 16
28°FOct 30Nov 3Nov 6Nov 9Nov 12Nov 15Nov 19Nov 23Nov 30
24°FNov 9Nov 15Nov 18Nov 22Nov 25Nov 29Dec 2Dec 5Dec 11
20°FNov 18Nov 24Nov 29Dec 1Dec 5Dec 8Dec 13Dec 17Dec 22
16°FNov 29Dec 4Dec 8Dec 13Dec 16Dec 20Dec 24Dec 28Jan 4

Growing season length

Days between the last spring and first fall freeze at each threshold, with the chance of a season at least that long.

Threshold10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
36°F183176171167162158154149142
32°F208199194190185182176171163
28°F232225220215211206202197190
24°F255248244239235231225220213
20°F277270264260255251246242234
16°F295289284280275270264260252

How often it gets that cold

The share of years with at least one night at or below each temperature.

36°F or colder
100% of years
32°F or colder
100% of years
28°F or colder
100% of years
24°F or colder
100% of years
20°F or colder
100% of years
16°F or colder
100% of years

Degree days

A degree day is one degree of the daily mean temperature beyond a base, for one day. Heating degree days count cold (the fuel a house burns), cooling degree days heat, growing degree days the warmth a crop needs; each crop has its own base.

Heating degree days, base 65°F
5,906
Cooling degree days, base 65°F
714
Growing degree days, base 40°F
5,204
Growing degree days, base 45°F
4,026
Growing degree days, base 50°F
2,986
Growing degree days, base 55°F
2,083
Growing degree days, base 60°F
1,326

Growing degree days by month, base 50°F

Heating and cooling by month

MonthHeating DDCooling DDGrowing DD 50
January1,15502
February1,01902
March888019
April515693
May22342300
June47145548
July5229688
August8194651
September8286456
October34812180
November645043
December97006

What this means

NOAA computes these from the daily lows at the station over 1991-2020, fitting the dates of each year's last and first freeze to a distribution, so a date can be stated at any level of risk. 36°F is a frost risk for tender plants on a clear, calm night, since the ground cools below the air above it; 32°F is a freeze; 28°F is a hard freeze that kills most annuals.

The station is 3.8 km from Dunkirk. Low ground, valleys and open fields freeze earlier and later than a town center or a hillside.

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Sources

NOAA NCEI U.S. Climate Normals, 1991-2020, annual and seasonal normals for station USC00303033 (Fredonia). Public domain.