Baxter Estates climate

Baxter Estates Frost Dates and Growing Season

NOAA 1991-2020 normals for Mineola, 13.1 km from Baxter Estates, elevation 96 ft

Frost and the growing season

NOAA's 1991-2020 freeze probabilities for Mineola. A median date has an even chance of a later freeze in spring, or an earlier one in fall.

The last spring freeze typically comes around April 2 and the first fall freeze around November 12, a growing season of about 224 days.

Median at 36°F
last April 16, first October 31
Median at 32°F
last April 2, first November 12
Median at 28°F
last March 20, first November 25

Last freeze in spring

The chance of a later freeze than the date shown. At 10 percent, one spring in ten still freezes after the date; planting after the 10 percent date for 32°F is the cautious choice.

Threshold10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
36°FApr 30Apr 25Apr 22Apr 19Apr 16Apr 13Apr 10Apr 6Apr 3
32°FApr 16Apr 11Apr 8Apr 5Apr 2Mar 31Mar 29Mar 24Mar 18
28°FApr 4Mar 31Mar 28Mar 24Mar 20Mar 17Mar 14Mar 11Mar 5
24°FMar 24Mar 19Mar 16Mar 13Mar 10Mar 7Mar 3Feb 27Feb 21
20°FMar 15Mar 10Mar 6Mar 3Feb 28Feb 24Feb 19Feb 13Feb 4
16°FMar 5Feb 28Feb 23Feb 17Feb 12Feb 6Feb 2Jan 28Jan 18

First freeze in fall

The chance of an earlier freeze than the date shown. At 10 percent, one fall in ten freezes before the date.

Threshold10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
36°FOct 16Oct 21Oct 25Oct 28Oct 31Nov 2Nov 5Nov 8Nov 13
32°FOct 31Nov 3Nov 6Nov 9Nov 12Nov 14Nov 18Nov 23Dec 1
28°FNov 9Nov 14Nov 17Nov 21Nov 25Nov 30Dec 2Dec 6Dec 13
24°FNov 17Nov 25Dec 1Dec 4Dec 8Dec 12Dec 17Dec 22Dec 31
20°FDec 3Dec 10Dec 16Dec 22Dec 26Dec 31Jan 3Jan 8Jan 17
16°FDec 19Dec 26Dec 31Jan 3Jan 7Jan 13Jan 18Jan 24Feb 3

Growing season length

Days between the last spring and first fall freeze at each threshold, with the chance of a season at least that long.

Threshold10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
36°F215209205200196192188182176
32°F245238232228224220215211204
28°F271263258253247243239234226
24°F298289283278273268263256248
20°F323315306302298293287281272
16°F354340333329323317310305297

How often it gets that cold

The share of years with at least one night at or below each temperature.

36°F or colder
100% of years
32°F or colder
100% of years
28°F or colder
100% of years
24°F or colder
100% of years
20°F or colder
100% of years
16°F or colder
93% of years

Degree days

A degree day is one degree of the daily mean temperature beyond a base, for one day. Heating degree days count cold (the fuel a house burns), cooling degree days heat, growing degree days the warmth a crop needs; each crop has its own base.

Heating degree days, base 65°F
4,561
Cooling degree days, base 65°F
1,124
Growing degree days, base 40°F
6,229
Growing degree days, base 45°F
4,867
Growing degree days, base 50°F
3,682
Growing degree days, base 55°F
2,666
Growing degree days, base 60°F
1,815

Growing degree days by month, base 50°F

Heating and cooling by month

MonthHeating DDCooling DDGrowing DD 50
January94803
February80803
March688021
April3756131
May14149374
June18204636
July0375840
August2321784
September38147560
October23921260
November515060
December789011

What this means

NOAA computes these from the daily lows at the station over 1991-2020, fitting the dates of each year's last and first freeze to a distribution, so a date can be stated at any level of risk. 36°F is a frost risk for tender plants on a clear, calm night, since the ground cools below the air above it; 32°F is a freeze; 28°F is a hard freeze that kills most annuals.

The station is 13.1 km from Baxter Estates. Low ground, valleys and open fields freeze earlier and later than a town center or a hillside.

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Sources

NOAA NCEI U.S. Climate Normals, 1991-2020, annual and seasonal normals for station USC00305377 (Mineola). Public domain.