Valentine Frost Dates and Growing Season
Frost and the growing season
NOAA's 1991-2020 freeze probabilities for Valentine #1. A median date has an even chance of a later freeze in spring, or an earlier one in fall.
The last spring freeze typically comes around May 6 and the first fall freeze around October 4, a growing season of about 149 days.
- Median at 36°F
- last May 15, first September 26
- Median at 32°F
- last May 6, first October 4
- Median at 28°F
- last April 28, first October 13
Last freeze in spring
The chance of a later freeze than the date shown. At 10 percent, one spring in ten still freezes after the date; planting after the 10 percent date for 32°F is the cautious choice.
| Threshold | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F | May 27 | May 23 | May 20 | May 18 | May 15 | May 13 | May 10 | May 8 | May 4 |
| 32°F | May 19 | May 15 | May 12 | May 9 | May 6 | May 4 | May 2 | Apr 29 | Apr 24 |
| 28°F | May 12 | May 6 | May 3 | Apr 30 | Apr 28 | Apr 24 | Apr 21 | Apr 17 | Apr 12 |
| 24°F | May 3 | Apr 28 | Apr 23 | Apr 20 | Apr 16 | Apr 13 | Apr 10 | Apr 7 | Apr 2 |
| 20°F | Apr 24 | Apr 18 | Apr 14 | Apr 10 | Apr 6 | Apr 3 | Mar 31 | Mar 27 | Mar 20 |
| 16°F | Apr 14 | Apr 7 | Apr 3 | Mar 31 | Mar 28 | Mar 24 | Mar 20 | Mar 15 | Mar 9 |
First freeze in fall
The chance of an earlier freeze than the date shown. At 10 percent, one fall in ten freezes before the date.
| Threshold | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F | Sep 12 | Sep 18 | Sep 21 | Sep 24 | Sep 26 | Sep 28 | Oct 1 | Oct 3 | Oct 7 |
| 32°F | Sep 22 | Sep 27 | Sep 30 | Oct 2 | Oct 4 | Oct 6 | Oct 9 | Oct 12 | Oct 16 |
| 28°F | Sep 30 | Oct 4 | Oct 8 | Oct 11 | Oct 13 | Oct 16 | Oct 18 | Oct 21 | Oct 25 |
| 24°F | Oct 7 | Oct 13 | Oct 16 | Oct 19 | Oct 22 | Oct 24 | Oct 27 | Oct 30 | Nov 3 |
| 20°F | Oct 17 | Oct 23 | Oct 26 | Oct 28 | Oct 31 | Nov 2 | Nov 5 | Nov 9 | Nov 13 |
| 16°F | Oct 27 | Nov 1 | Nov 3 | Nov 5 | Nov 8 | Nov 11 | Nov 14 | Nov 18 | Nov 23 |
Growing season length
Days between the last spring and first fall freeze at each threshold, with the chance of a season at least that long.
| Threshold | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F | 149 | 144 | 140 | 137 | 133 | 129 | 125 | 121 | 115 |
| 32°F | 168 | 162 | 157 | 153 | 149 | 146 | 143 | 137 | 131 |
| 28°F | 188 | 181 | 176 | 172 | 167 | 164 | 160 | 155 | 148 |
| 24°F | 206 | 200 | 194 | 191 | 186 | 182 | 177 | 173 | 166 |
| 20°F | 227 | 219 | 215 | 210 | 206 | 201 | 196 | 191 | 184 |
| 16°F | 247 | 240 | 235 | 230 | 225 | 221 | 217 | 210 | 202 |
How often it gets that cold
The share of years with at least one night at or below each temperature.
- 36°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 32°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 28°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 24°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 20°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 16°F or colder
- 100% of years
Degree days
A degree day is one degree of the daily mean temperature beyond a base, for one day. Heating degree days count cold (the fuel a house burns), cooling degree days heat, growing degree days the warmth a crop needs; each crop has its own base.
- Heating degree days, base 65°F
- 6,711
- Cooling degree days, base 65°F
- 921
- Growing degree days, base 40°F
- 5,127
- Growing degree days, base 45°F
- 4,021
- Growing degree days, base 50°F
- 3,051
- Growing degree days, base 55°F
- 2,213
- Growing degree days, base 60°F
- 1,504
Growing degree days by month, base 50°F
Heating and cooling by month
| Month | Heating DD | Cooling DD | Growing DD 50 |
|---|---|---|---|
| January | 1,260 | 0 | 0 |
| February | 1,061 | 0 | 2 |
| March | 852 | 0 | 23 |
| April | 535 | 2 | 85 |
| May | 254 | 40 | 282 |
| June | 45 | 169 | 575 |
| July | 4 | 336 | 796 |
| August | 12 | 274 | 727 |
| September | 118 | 96 | 435 |
| October | 490 | 5 | 115 |
| November | 866 | 0 | 12 |
| December | 1,216 | 0 | 1 |
What this means
NOAA computes these from the daily lows at the station over 1991-2020, fitting the dates of each year's last and first freeze to a distribution, so a date can be stated at any level of risk. 36°F is a frost risk for tender plants on a clear, calm night, since the ground cools below the air above it; 32°F is a freeze; 28°F is a hard freeze that kills most annuals.
The station is 0.3 km from Valentine. Low ground, valleys and open fields freeze earlier and later than a town center or a hillside.
More
Sources
NOAA NCEI U.S. Climate Normals, 1991-2020, annual and seasonal normals for station USC00258751 (Valentine #1). Public domain.