Paxton Frost Dates and Growing Season
Frost and the growing season
NOAA's 1991-2020 freeze probabilities for Kingsley Dam. A median date has an even chance of a later freeze in spring, or an earlier one in fall.
The last spring freeze typically comes around April 22 and the first fall freeze around October 18, a growing season of about 176 days.
- Median at 36°F
- last May 4, first October 8
- Median at 32°F
- last April 22, first October 18
- Median at 28°F
- last April 10, first October 26
Last freeze in spring
The chance of a later freeze than the date shown. At 10 percent, one spring in ten still freezes after the date; planting after the 10 percent date for 32°F is the cautious choice.
| Threshold | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F | May 16 | May 12 | May 9 | May 6 | May 4 | May 1 | Apr 30 | Apr 25 | Apr 21 |
| 32°F | May 6 | May 1 | Apr 29 | Apr 25 | Apr 22 | Apr 19 | Apr 15 | Apr 12 | Apr 8 |
| 28°F | Apr 25 | Apr 21 | Apr 17 | Apr 14 | Apr 10 | Apr 7 | Apr 4 | Apr 1 | Mar 27 |
| 24°F | Apr 17 | Apr 12 | Apr 8 | Apr 5 | Apr 2 | Mar 31 | Mar 26 | Mar 21 | Mar 16 |
| 20°F | Apr 10 | Apr 4 | Mar 31 | Mar 28 | Mar 23 | Mar 19 | Mar 15 | Mar 10 | Mar 4 |
| 16°F | Mar 31 | Mar 25 | Mar 20 | Mar 16 | Mar 11 | Mar 8 | Mar 4 | Mar 1 | Feb 23 |
First freeze in fall
The chance of an earlier freeze than the date shown. At 10 percent, one fall in ten freezes before the date.
| Threshold | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F | Sep 24 | Sep 29 | Oct 2 | Oct 5 | Oct 8 | Oct 11 | Oct 14 | Oct 16 | Oct 20 |
| 32°F | Oct 2 | Oct 8 | Oct 12 | Oct 15 | Oct 18 | Oct 20 | Oct 22 | Oct 25 | Oct 28 |
| 28°F | Oct 14 | Oct 18 | Oct 21 | Oct 24 | Oct 26 | Oct 28 | Nov 1 | Nov 4 | Nov 8 |
| 24°F | Oct 19 | Oct 25 | Oct 29 | Nov 1 | Nov 4 | Nov 6 | Nov 9 | Nov 13 | Nov 18 |
| 20°F | Oct 28 | Nov 1 | Nov 6 | Nov 10 | Nov 13 | Nov 16 | Nov 20 | Nov 23 | Nov 28 |
| 16°F | Nov 3 | Nov 10 | Nov 15 | Nov 19 | Nov 23 | Nov 26 | Nov 29 | Dec 3 | Dec 11 |
Growing season length
Days between the last spring and first fall freeze at each threshold, with the chance of a season at least that long.
| Threshold | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F | 172 | 167 | 163 | 160 | 156 | 152 | 148 | 143 | 137 |
| 32°F | 194 | 188 | 183 | 180 | 176 | 172 | 167 | 163 | 157 |
| 28°F | 218 | 210 | 204 | 200 | 196 | 192 | 188 | 183 | 177 |
| 24°F | 238 | 229 | 224 | 218 | 213 | 209 | 204 | 199 | 191 |
| 20°F | 258 | 250 | 244 | 238 | 234 | 229 | 223 | 216 | 209 |
| 16°F | 280 | 271 | 265 | 259 | 253 | 247 | 241 | 235 | 227 |
How often it gets that cold
The share of years with at least one night at or below each temperature.
- 36°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 32°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 28°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 24°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 20°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 16°F or colder
- 100% of years
Degree days
A degree day is one degree of the daily mean temperature beyond a base, for one day. Heating degree days count cold (the fuel a house burns), cooling degree days heat, growing degree days the warmth a crop needs; each crop has its own base.
- Heating degree days, base 65°F
- 6,273
- Cooling degree days, base 65°F
- 857
- Growing degree days, base 40°F
- 5,152
- Growing degree days, base 45°F
- 4,012
- Growing degree days, base 50°F
- 3,020
- Growing degree days, base 55°F
- 2,167
- Growing degree days, base 60°F
- 1,448
Growing degree days by month, base 50°F
Heating and cooling by month
| Month | Heating DD | Cooling DD | Growing DD 50 |
|---|---|---|---|
| January | 1,178 | 0 | 0 |
| February | 998 | 0 | 1 |
| March | 800 | 0 | 20 |
| April | 525 | 2 | 79 |
| May | 249 | 34 | 281 |
| June | 40 | 158 | 569 |
| July | 4 | 311 | 772 |
| August | 11 | 256 | 710 |
| September | 113 | 90 | 436 |
| October | 453 | 5 | 133 |
| November | 795 | 0 | 17 |
| December | 1,107 | 0 | 1 |
What this means
NOAA computes these from the daily lows at the station over 1991-2020, fitting the dates of each year's last and first freeze to a distribution, so a date can be stated at any level of risk. 36°F is a frost risk for tender plants on a clear, calm night, since the ground cools below the air above it; 32°F is a freeze; 28°F is a hard freeze that kills most annuals.
The station is 28 km from Paxton. Low ground, valleys and open fields freeze earlier and later than a town center or a hillside.
More
Sources
NOAA NCEI U.S. Climate Normals, 1991-2020, annual and seasonal normals for station USC00254455 (Kingsley Dam). Public domain.