Three Forks Frost Dates and Growing Season
Frost and the growing season
NOAA's 1991-2020 freeze probabilities for Trident. A median date has an even chance of a later freeze in spring, or an earlier one in fall.
The last spring freeze typically comes around May 9 and the first fall freeze around September 27, a growing season of about 139 days.
- Median at 36°F
- last May 24, first September 15
- Median at 32°F
- last May 9, first September 27
- Median at 28°F
- last April 29, first October 6
Last freeze in spring
The chance of a later freeze than the date shown. At 10 percent, one spring in ten still freezes after the date; planting after the 10 percent date for 32°F is the cautious choice.
| Threshold | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F | Jun 10 | Jun 3 | May 31 | May 28 | May 24 | May 21 | May 17 | May 14 | May 10 |
| 32°F | May 24 | May 18 | May 14 | May 11 | May 9 | May 6 | May 4 | May 2 | Apr 29 |
| 28°F | May 10 | May 6 | May 3 | May 1 | Apr 29 | Apr 26 | Apr 23 | Apr 19 | Apr 12 |
| 24°F | Apr 30 | Apr 27 | Apr 22 | Apr 18 | Apr 15 | Apr 12 | Apr 8 | Apr 3 | Mar 29 |
| 20°F | Apr 17 | Apr 13 | Apr 8 | Apr 4 | Apr 1 | Mar 29 | Mar 24 | Mar 17 | Mar 10 |
| 16°F | Apr 8 | Apr 2 | Mar 28 | Mar 23 | Mar 18 | Mar 14 | Mar 10 | Mar 4 | Feb 28 |
First freeze in fall
The chance of an earlier freeze than the date shown. At 10 percent, one fall in ten freezes before the date.
| Threshold | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F | Sep 1 | Sep 6 | Sep 10 | Sep 12 | Sep 15 | Sep 19 | Sep 22 | Sep 25 | Sep 30 |
| 32°F | Sep 12 | Sep 18 | Sep 22 | Sep 24 | Sep 27 | Sep 29 | Oct 2 | Oct 5 | Oct 9 |
| 28°F | Sep 24 | Sep 28 | Oct 1 | Oct 4 | Oct 6 | Oct 10 | Oct 13 | Oct 17 | Oct 22 |
| 24°F | Oct 1 | Oct 4 | Oct 9 | Oct 13 | Oct 17 | Oct 20 | Oct 24 | Oct 28 | Nov 1 |
| 20°F | Oct 9 | Oct 16 | Oct 20 | Oct 25 | Oct 29 | Nov 1 | Nov 2 | Nov 6 | Nov 11 |
| 16°F | Oct 18 | Oct 24 | Oct 30 | Nov 1 | Nov 5 | Nov 8 | Nov 11 | Nov 15 | Nov 20 |
Growing season length
Days between the last spring and first fall freeze at each threshold, with the chance of a season at least that long.
| Threshold | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F | 131 | 124 | 119 | 116 | 112 | 107 | 102 | 97 | 90 |
| 32°F | 156 | 151 | 147 | 143 | 139 | 136 | 131 | 127 | 120 |
| 28°F | 181 | 174 | 170 | 165 | 161 | 157 | 153 | 149 | 143 |
| 24°F | 207 | 198 | 193 | 189 | 184 | 179 | 175 | 169 | 161 |
| 20°F | 233 | 224 | 218 | 214 | 209 | 203 | 198 | 192 | 184 |
| 16°F | 254 | 246 | 240 | 235 | 229 | 223 | 218 | 212 | 203 |
How often it gets that cold
The share of years with at least one night at or below each temperature.
- 36°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 32°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 28°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 24°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 20°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 16°F or colder
- 100% of years
Degree days
A degree day is one degree of the daily mean temperature beyond a base, for one day. Heating degree days count cold (the fuel a house burns), cooling degree days heat, growing degree days the warmth a crop needs; each crop has its own base.
- Heating degree days, base 65°F
- 7,434
- Cooling degree days, base 65°F
- 334
- Growing degree days, base 40°F
- 3,907
- Growing degree days, base 45°F
- 2,864
- Growing degree days, base 50°F
- 1,997
- Growing degree days, base 55°F
- 1,286
- Growing degree days, base 60°F
- 729
Growing degree days by month, base 50°F
Heating and cooling by month
| Month | Heating DD | Cooling DD | Growing DD 50 |
|---|---|---|---|
| January | 1,257 | 0 | 0 |
| February | 1,053 | 0 | 1 |
| March | 873 | 0 | 5 |
| April | 617 | 0 | 29 |
| May | 357 | 3 | 161 |
| June | 149 | 35 | 339 |
| July | 29 | 159 | 595 |
| August | 45 | 117 | 539 |
| September | 220 | 19 | 268 |
| October | 596 | 1 | 57 |
| November | 970 | 0 | 4 |
| December | 1,269 | 0 | 0 |
What this means
NOAA computes these from the daily lows at the station over 1991-2020, fitting the dates of each year's last and first freeze to a distribution, so a date can be stated at any level of risk. 36°F is a frost risk for tender plants on a clear, calm night, since the ground cools below the air above it; 32°F is a freeze; 28°F is a hard freeze that kills most annuals.
The station is 8.5 km from Three Forks. Low ground, valleys and open fields freeze earlier and later than a town center or a hillside.
More
Sources
NOAA NCEI U.S. Climate Normals, 1991-2020, annual and seasonal normals for station USC00248363 (Trident). Public domain.