Muddy Frost Dates and Growing Season
Frost and the growing season
NOAA's 1991-2020 freeze probabilities for Busby. A median date has an even chance of a later freeze in spring, or an earlier one in fall.
The last spring freeze typically comes around May 23 and the first fall freeze around September 15, a growing season of about 113 days.
- Median at 36°F
- last June 8, first September 4
- Median at 32°F
- last May 23, first September 15
- Median at 28°F
- last May 11, first September 27
Last freeze in spring
The chance of a later freeze than the date shown. At 10 percent, one spring in ten still freezes after the date; planting after the 10 percent date for 32°F is the cautious choice.
| Threshold | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F | Jul 2 | Jun 22 | Jun 16 | Jun 13 | Jun 8 | Jun 5 | Jun 2 | May 29 | May 24 |
| 32°F | Jun 7 | Jun 1 | May 29 | May 26 | May 23 | May 21 | May 18 | May 15 | May 12 |
| 28°F | May 24 | May 19 | May 16 | May 13 | May 11 | May 9 | May 6 | May 3 | Apr 30 |
| 24°F | May 11 | May 6 | May 2 | Apr 30 | Apr 29 | Apr 26 | Apr 23 | Apr 20 | Apr 14 |
| 20°F | May 2 | Apr 28 | Apr 24 | Apr 20 | Apr 17 | Apr 14 | Apr 10 | Apr 5 | Apr 1 |
| 16°F | Apr 24 | Apr 17 | Apr 12 | Apr 8 | Apr 4 | Apr 1 | Mar 29 | Mar 23 | Mar 15 |
First freeze in fall
The chance of an earlier freeze than the date shown. At 10 percent, one fall in ten freezes before the date.
| Threshold | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F | Aug 20 | Aug 26 | Aug 30 | Sep 1 | Sep 4 | Sep 6 | Sep 9 | Sep 13 | Sep 18 |
| 32°F | Sep 1 | Sep 5 | Sep 9 | Sep 12 | Sep 15 | Sep 18 | Sep 21 | Sep 25 | Oct 1 |
| 28°F | Sep 11 | Sep 17 | Sep 21 | Sep 24 | Sep 27 | Oct 1 | Oct 3 | Oct 6 | Oct 11 |
| 24°F | Sep 23 | Sep 28 | Oct 1 | Oct 4 | Oct 6 | Oct 9 | Oct 13 | Oct 16 | Oct 21 |
| 20°F | Oct 1 | Oct 6 | Oct 10 | Oct 14 | Oct 17 | Oct 20 | Oct 23 | Oct 26 | Oct 31 |
| 16°F | Oct 9 | Oct 15 | Oct 19 | Oct 23 | Oct 26 | Oct 29 | Nov 1 | Nov 4 | Nov 8 |
Growing season length
Days between the last spring and first fall freeze at each threshold, with the chance of a season at least that long.
| Threshold | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F | 107 | 100 | 95 | 91 | 86 | 82 | 77 | 69 | 60 |
| 32°F | 131 | 125 | 121 | 117 | 113 | 108 | 105 | 99 | 93 |
| 28°F | 155 | 148 | 144 | 140 | 136 | 132 | 128 | 124 | 117 |
| 24°F | 178 | 172 | 167 | 162 | 158 | 155 | 151 | 146 | 139 |
| 20°F | 202 | 194 | 190 | 185 | 180 | 175 | 171 | 166 | 157 |
| 16°F | 224 | 217 | 211 | 206 | 201 | 197 | 191 | 186 | 177 |
How often it gets that cold
The share of years with at least one night at or below each temperature.
- 36°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 32°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 28°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 24°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 20°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 16°F or colder
- 100% of years
Degree days
A degree day is one degree of the daily mean temperature beyond a base, for one day. Heating degree days count cold (the fuel a house burns), cooling degree days heat, growing degree days the warmth a crop needs; each crop has its own base.
- Heating degree days, base 65°F
- 7,682
- Cooling degree days, base 65°F
- 443
- Growing degree days, base 40°F
- 4,040
- Growing degree days, base 45°F
- 3,019
- Growing degree days, base 50°F
- 2,154
- Growing degree days, base 55°F
- 1,442
- Growing degree days, base 60°F
- 869
Growing degree days by month, base 50°F
Heating and cooling by month
| Month | Heating DD | Cooling DD | Growing DD 50 |
|---|---|---|---|
| January | 1,355 | 0 | 0 |
| February | 1,139 | 0 | 0 |
| March | 919 | 0 | 5 |
| April | 627 | 0 | 32 |
| May | 363 | 5 | 159 |
| June | 119 | 50 | 384 |
| July | 22 | 196 | 638 |
| August | 34 | 160 | 592 |
| September | 211 | 31 | 289 |
| October | 608 | 1 | 53 |
| November | 972 | 0 | 3 |
| December | 1,313 | 0 | 0 |
What this means
NOAA computes these from the daily lows at the station over 1991-2020, fitting the dates of each year's last and first freeze to a distribution, so a date can be stated at any level of risk. 36°F is a frost risk for tender plants on a clear, calm night, since the ground cools below the air above it; 32°F is a freeze; 28°F is a hard freeze that kills most annuals.
The station is 18 km from Muddy. Low ground, valleys and open fields freeze earlier and later than a town center or a hillside.
More
Sources
NOAA NCEI U.S. Climate Normals, 1991-2020, annual and seasonal normals for station USC00241297 (Busby). Public domain.