Manhattan Frost Dates and Growing Season
Frost and the growing season
NOAA's 1991-2020 freeze probabilities for Logan Landfill. A median date has an even chance of a later freeze in spring, or an earlier one in fall.
The last spring freeze typically comes around May 26 and the first fall freeze around September 15, a growing season of about 111 days.
- Median at 36°F
- last June 12, first September 3
- Median at 32°F
- last May 26, first September 15
- Median at 28°F
- last May 11, first September 27
Last freeze in spring
The chance of a later freeze than the date shown. At 10 percent, one spring in ten still freezes after the date; planting after the 10 percent date for 32°F is the cautious choice.
| Threshold | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F | Jul 3 | Jun 24 | Jun 19 | Jun 16 | Jun 12 | Jun 9 | Jun 5 | Jun 2 | May 29 |
| 32°F | Jun 12 | Jun 4 | Jun 1 | May 29 | May 26 | May 23 | May 19 | May 16 | May 11 |
| 28°F | May 27 | May 21 | May 17 | May 13 | May 11 | May 8 | May 5 | May 3 | Apr 29 |
| 24°F | May 15 | May 9 | May 5 | May 2 | Apr 30 | Apr 28 | Apr 24 | Apr 20 | Apr 14 |
| 20°F | May 3 | Apr 29 | Apr 24 | Apr 21 | Apr 17 | Apr 13 | Apr 10 | Apr 6 | Apr 2 |
| 16°F | Apr 24 | Apr 17 | Apr 12 | Apr 7 | Apr 4 | Apr 1 | Mar 29 | Mar 23 | Mar 15 |
First freeze in fall
The chance of an earlier freeze than the date shown. At 10 percent, one fall in ten freezes before the date.
| Threshold | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F | Aug 17 | Aug 24 | Aug 29 | Sep 1 | Sep 3 | Sep 6 | Sep 9 | Sep 12 | Sep 16 |
| 32°F | Sep 1 | Sep 6 | Sep 9 | Sep 12 | Sep 15 | Sep 17 | Sep 21 | Sep 24 | Sep 28 |
| 28°F | Sep 12 | Sep 18 | Sep 22 | Sep 25 | Sep 27 | Sep 29 | Oct 1 | Oct 4 | Oct 8 |
| 24°F | Sep 23 | Sep 28 | Oct 1 | Oct 3 | Oct 5 | Oct 8 | Oct 11 | Oct 14 | Oct 18 |
| 20°F | Oct 1 | Oct 5 | Oct 9 | Oct 13 | Oct 16 | Oct 20 | Oct 23 | Oct 26 | Oct 30 |
| 16°F | Oct 9 | Oct 15 | Oct 20 | Oct 23 | Oct 26 | Oct 29 | Nov 1 | Nov 4 | Nov 9 |
Growing season length
Days between the last spring and first fall freeze at each threshold, with the chance of a season at least that long.
| Threshold | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F | 102 | 96 | 91 | 85 | 81 | 76 | 71 | 64 | 56 |
| 32°F | 132 | 124 | 120 | 115 | 111 | 107 | 102 | 97 | 90 |
| 28°F | 155 | 149 | 145 | 142 | 138 | 133 | 128 | 124 | 117 |
| 24°F | 177 | 171 | 167 | 162 | 159 | 155 | 151 | 146 | 139 |
| 20°F | 204 | 196 | 190 | 186 | 181 | 177 | 172 | 167 | 159 |
| 16°F | 226 | 219 | 214 | 208 | 203 | 199 | 194 | 188 | 178 |
How often it gets that cold
The share of years with at least one night at or below each temperature.
- 36°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 32°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 28°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 24°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 20°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 16°F or colder
- 100% of years
Degree days
A degree day is one degree of the daily mean temperature beyond a base, for one day. Heating degree days count cold (the fuel a house burns), cooling degree days heat, growing degree days the warmth a crop needs; each crop has its own base.
- Heating degree days, base 65°F
- 8,291
- Cooling degree days, base 65°F
- 196
- Growing degree days, base 40°F
- 3,323
- Growing degree days, base 45°F
- 2,383
- Growing degree days, base 50°F
- 1,612
- Growing degree days, base 55°F
- 992
- Growing degree days, base 60°F
- 519
Growing degree days by month, base 50°F
Heating and cooling by month
| Month | Heating DD | Cooling DD | Growing DD 50 |
|---|---|---|---|
| January | 1,362 | 0 | 0 |
| February | 1,118 | 0 | 1 |
| March | 978 | 0 | 1 |
| April | 698 | 0 | 15 |
| May | 459 | 1 | 98 |
| June | 215 | 17 | 266 |
| July | 46 | 102 | 521 |
| August | 75 | 66 | 458 |
| September | 284 | 11 | 211 |
| October | 679 | 1 | 38 |
| November | 1,037 | 0 | 1 |
| December | 1,339 | 0 | 0 |
What this means
NOAA computes these from the daily lows at the station over 1991-2020, fitting the dates of each year's last and first freeze to a distribution, so a date can be stated at any level of risk. 36°F is a frost risk for tender plants on a clear, calm night, since the ground cools below the air above it; 32°F is a freeze; 28°F is a hard freeze that kills most annuals.
The station is 6.4 km from Manhattan. Low ground, valleys and open fields freeze earlier and later than a town center or a hillside.
More
Sources
NOAA NCEI U.S. Climate Normals, 1991-2020, annual and seasonal normals for station USC00245123 (Logan Landfill). Public domain.