Buffalo Frost Dates and Growing Season
Frost and the growing season
NOAA's 1991-2020 freeze probabilities for Buffalo 2N. A median date has an even chance of a later freeze in spring, or an earlier one in fall.
The last spring freeze typically comes around April 23 and the first fall freeze around October 15, a growing season of about 175 days.
- Median at 36°F
- last May 4, first October 6
- Median at 32°F
- last April 23, first October 15
- Median at 28°F
- last April 9, first October 25
Last freeze in spring
The chance of a later freeze than the date shown. At 10 percent, one spring in ten still freezes after the date; planting after the 10 percent date for 32°F is the cautious choice.
| Threshold | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F | May 17 | May 13 | May 10 | May 7 | May 4 | May 1 | Apr 28 | Apr 24 | Apr 18 |
| 32°F | May 8 | May 4 | Apr 30 | Apr 26 | Apr 23 | Apr 18 | Apr 15 | Apr 11 | Apr 5 |
| 28°F | Apr 29 | Apr 22 | Apr 17 | Apr 13 | Apr 9 | Apr 5 | Apr 2 | Mar 30 | Mar 24 |
| 24°F | Apr 14 | Apr 7 | Apr 3 | Mar 31 | Mar 29 | Mar 26 | Mar 22 | Mar 18 | Mar 12 |
| 20°F | Apr 5 | Mar 31 | Mar 26 | Mar 23 | Mar 19 | Mar 15 | Mar 12 | Mar 7 | Mar 1 |
| 16°F | Mar 25 | Mar 19 | Mar 15 | Mar 11 | Mar 7 | Mar 4 | Mar 1 | Feb 25 | Feb 18 |
First freeze in fall
The chance of an earlier freeze than the date shown. At 10 percent, one fall in ten freezes before the date.
| Threshold | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F | Sep 23 | Sep 27 | Oct 1 | Oct 4 | Oct 6 | Oct 9 | Oct 11 | Oct 15 | Oct 18 |
| 32°F | Oct 1 | Oct 6 | Oct 9 | Oct 12 | Oct 15 | Oct 18 | Oct 21 | Oct 24 | Oct 28 |
| 28°F | Oct 10 | Oct 16 | Oct 20 | Oct 22 | Oct 25 | Oct 28 | Oct 31 | Nov 4 | Nov 8 |
| 24°F | Oct 20 | Oct 25 | Oct 29 | Nov 1 | Nov 4 | Nov 6 | Nov 9 | Nov 14 | Nov 19 |
| 20°F | Nov 1 | Nov 4 | Nov 7 | Nov 10 | Nov 14 | Nov 17 | Nov 22 | Nov 28 | Dec 3 |
| 16°F | Nov 7 | Nov 12 | Nov 17 | Nov 22 | Nov 27 | Nov 30 | Dec 3 | Dec 8 | Dec 16 |
Growing season length
Days between the last spring and first fall freeze at each threshold, with the chance of a season at least that long.
| Threshold | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F | 174 | 169 | 162 | 158 | 154 | 151 | 147 | 142 | 135 |
| 32°F | 196 | 189 | 184 | 179 | 175 | 171 | 166 | 160 | 153 |
| 28°F | 220 | 212 | 207 | 202 | 198 | 192 | 187 | 182 | 174 |
| 24°F | 242 | 234 | 230 | 225 | 220 | 215 | 210 | 205 | 197 |
| 20°F | 263 | 256 | 250 | 245 | 240 | 235 | 231 | 225 | 214 |
| 16°F | 286 | 277 | 271 | 265 | 261 | 256 | 251 | 245 | 238 |
How often it gets that cold
The share of years with at least one night at or below each temperature.
- 36°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 32°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 28°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 24°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 20°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 16°F or colder
- 100% of years
Degree days
A degree day is one degree of the daily mean temperature beyond a base, for one day. Heating degree days count cold (the fuel a house burns), cooling degree days heat, growing degree days the warmth a crop needs; each crop has its own base.
- Heating degree days, base 65°F
- 4,836
- Cooling degree days, base 65°F
- 1,242
- Growing degree days, base 40°F
- 6,419
- Growing degree days, base 45°F
- 5,100
- Growing degree days, base 50°F
- 3,919
- Growing degree days, base 55°F
- 2,881
- Growing degree days, base 60°F
- 1,987
Growing degree days by month, base 50°F
Heating and cooling by month
| Month | Heating DD | Cooling DD | Growing DD 50 |
|---|---|---|---|
| January | 1,043 | 0 | 7 |
| February | 818 | 0 | 18 |
| March | 622 | 3 | 76 |
| April | 321 | 18 | 208 |
| May | 120 | 89 | 439 |
| June | 11 | 241 | 679 |
| July | 1 | 384 | 848 |
| August | 4 | 334 | 795 |
| September | 65 | 144 | 531 |
| October | 295 | 27 | 242 |
| November | 609 | 2 | 62 |
| December | 927 | 0 | 13 |
What this means
NOAA computes these from the daily lows at the station over 1991-2020, fitting the dates of each year's last and first freeze to a distribution, so a date can be stated at any level of risk. 36°F is a frost risk for tender plants on a clear, calm night, since the ground cools below the air above it; 32°F is a freeze; 28°F is a hard freeze that kills most annuals.
The station is 2.9 km from Buffalo. Low ground, valleys and open fields freeze earlier and later than a town center or a hillside.
More
Sources
NOAA NCEI U.S. Climate Normals, 1991-2020, annual and seasonal normals for station USC00231087 (Buffalo 2N). Public domain.