Sebeka Frost Dates and Growing Season
Frost and the growing season
NOAA's 1991-2020 freeze probabilities for New York Mills. A median date has an even chance of a later freeze in spring, or an earlier one in fall.
The last spring freeze typically comes around May 10 and the first fall freeze around September 29, a growing season of about 141 days.
- Median at 36°F
- last May 21, first September 21
- Median at 32°F
- last May 10, first September 29
- Median at 28°F
- last May 1, first October 10
Last freeze in spring
The chance of a later freeze than the date shown. At 10 percent, one spring in ten still freezes after the date; planting after the 10 percent date for 32°F is the cautious choice.
| Threshold | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F | Jun 3 | May 30 | May 27 | May 24 | May 21 | May 18 | May 15 | May 12 | May 6 |
| 32°F | May 24 | May 20 | May 16 | May 13 | May 10 | May 7 | May 4 | May 1 | Apr 28 |
| 28°F | May 15 | May 11 | May 6 | May 3 | May 1 | Apr 29 | Apr 26 | Apr 23 | Apr 17 |
| 24°F | May 6 | May 1 | Apr 28 | Apr 25 | Apr 22 | Apr 19 | Apr 16 | Apr 12 | Apr 7 |
| 20°F | Apr 27 | Apr 22 | Apr 18 | Apr 15 | Apr 12 | Apr 9 | Apr 7 | Apr 4 | Mar 31 |
| 16°F | Apr 20 | Apr 15 | Apr 10 | Apr 7 | Apr 5 | Apr 3 | Apr 1 | Mar 28 | Mar 22 |
First freeze in fall
The chance of an earlier freeze than the date shown. At 10 percent, one fall in ten freezes before the date.
| Threshold | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F | Sep 7 | Sep 12 | Sep 16 | Sep 19 | Sep 21 | Sep 23 | Sep 26 | Sep 28 | Oct 1 |
| 32°F | Sep 17 | Sep 21 | Sep 25 | Sep 27 | Sep 29 | Oct 1 | Oct 4 | Oct 7 | Oct 11 |
| 28°F | Sep 27 | Oct 1 | Oct 4 | Oct 7 | Oct 10 | Oct 13 | Oct 16 | Oct 19 | Oct 23 |
| 24°F | Oct 6 | Oct 11 | Oct 15 | Oct 19 | Oct 21 | Oct 24 | Oct 26 | Oct 30 | Nov 3 |
| 20°F | Oct 15 | Oct 22 | Oct 26 | Oct 29 | Nov 1 | Nov 3 | Nov 6 | Nov 9 | Nov 14 |
| 16°F | Oct 29 | Nov 1 | Nov 4 | Nov 7 | Nov 9 | Nov 11 | Nov 14 | Nov 17 | Nov 22 |
Growing season length
Days between the last spring and first fall freeze at each threshold, with the chance of a season at least that long.
| Threshold | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F | 139 | 133 | 129 | 125 | 122 | 118 | 114 | 109 | 103 |
| 32°F | 158 | 152 | 149 | 145 | 141 | 138 | 134 | 129 | 121 |
| 28°F | 179 | 172 | 168 | 163 | 160 | 156 | 152 | 148 | 142 |
| 24°F | 201 | 193 | 188 | 184 | 180 | 175 | 171 | 167 | 160 |
| 20°F | 220 | 213 | 207 | 204 | 199 | 195 | 191 | 186 | 179 |
| 16°F | 236 | 229 | 224 | 220 | 216 | 212 | 209 | 204 | 197 |
How often it gets that cold
The share of years with at least one night at or below each temperature.
- 36°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 32°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 28°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 24°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 20°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 16°F or colder
- 100% of years
Degree days
A degree day is one degree of the daily mean temperature beyond a base, for one day. Heating degree days count cold (the fuel a house burns), cooling degree days heat, growing degree days the warmth a crop needs; each crop has its own base.
- Heating degree days, base 65°F
- 9,440
- Cooling degree days, base 65°F
- 304
- Growing degree days, base 40°F
- 3,661
- Growing degree days, base 45°F
- 2,748
- Growing degree days, base 50°F
- 1,948
- Growing degree days, base 55°F
- 1,268
- Growing degree days, base 60°F
- 706
Growing degree days by month, base 50°F
Heating and cooling by month
| Month | Heating DD | Cooling DD | Growing DD 50 |
|---|---|---|---|
| January | 1,781 | 0 | 0 |
| February | 1,492 | 0 | 0 |
| March | 1,232 | 0 | 3 |
| April | 756 | 0 | 24 |
| May | 380 | 8 | 160 |
| June | 99 | 56 | 409 |
| July | 27 | 135 | 573 |
| August | 61 | 81 | 485 |
| September | 248 | 24 | 251 |
| October | 691 | 1 | 41 |
| November | 1,113 | 0 | 1 |
| December | 1,561 | 0 | 0 |
What this means
NOAA computes these from the daily lows at the station over 1991-2020, fitting the dates of each year's last and first freeze to a distribution, so a date can be stated at any level of risk. 36°F is a frost risk for tender plants on a clear, calm night, since the ground cools below the air above it; 32°F is a freeze; 28°F is a hard freeze that kills most annuals.
The station is 25.5 km from Sebeka. Low ground, valleys and open fields freeze earlier and later than a town center or a hillside.
More
Sources
NOAA NCEI U.S. Climate Normals, 1991-2020, annual and seasonal normals for station USC00215902 (New York Mills). Public domain.