Greenbush Frost Dates and Growing Season
Frost and the growing season
NOAA's 1991-2020 freeze probabilities for Agassiz Refuge. A median date has an even chance of a later freeze in spring, or an earlier one in fall.
The last spring freeze typically comes around May 6 and the first fall freeze around October 3, a growing season of about 148 days.
- Median at 36°F
- last May 15, first September 24
- Median at 32°F
- last May 6, first October 3
- Median at 28°F
- last April 28, first October 12
Last freeze in spring
The chance of a later freeze than the date shown. At 10 percent, one spring in ten still freezes after the date; planting after the 10 percent date for 32°F is the cautious choice.
| Threshold | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F | May 30 | May 25 | May 22 | May 18 | May 15 | May 12 | May 9 | May 6 | May 3 |
| 32°F | May 20 | May 15 | May 11 | May 8 | May 6 | May 3 | May 1 | Apr 29 | Apr 25 |
| 28°F | May 11 | May 6 | May 3 | Apr 30 | Apr 28 | Apr 26 | Apr 23 | Apr 19 | Apr 14 |
| 24°F | May 3 | Apr 28 | Apr 25 | Apr 22 | Apr 19 | Apr 16 | Apr 13 | Apr 10 | Apr 6 |
| 20°F | Apr 26 | Apr 21 | Apr 17 | Apr 14 | Apr 11 | Apr 9 | Apr 6 | Apr 4 | Mar 31 |
| 16°F | Apr 19 | Apr 13 | Apr 9 | Apr 7 | Apr 5 | Apr 3 | Apr 1 | Mar 28 | Mar 21 |
First freeze in fall
The chance of an earlier freeze than the date shown. At 10 percent, one fall in ten freezes before the date.
| Threshold | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F | Sep 10 | Sep 16 | Sep 19 | Sep 21 | Sep 24 | Sep 26 | Sep 29 | Oct 2 | Oct 6 |
| 32°F | Sep 20 | Sep 25 | Sep 28 | Oct 1 | Oct 3 | Oct 5 | Oct 8 | Oct 10 | Oct 16 |
| 28°F | Sep 30 | Oct 3 | Oct 6 | Oct 9 | Oct 12 | Oct 15 | Oct 18 | Oct 22 | Oct 26 |
| 24°F | Oct 8 | Oct 13 | Oct 16 | Oct 20 | Oct 23 | Oct 26 | Oct 29 | Nov 1 | Nov 4 |
| 20°F | Oct 16 | Oct 22 | Oct 26 | Oct 29 | Nov 1 | Nov 2 | Nov 5 | Nov 8 | Nov 12 |
| 16°F | Oct 26 | Oct 30 | Nov 1 | Nov 3 | Nov 6 | Nov 9 | Nov 12 | Nov 15 | Nov 20 |
Growing season length
Days between the last spring and first fall freeze at each threshold, with the chance of a season at least that long.
| Threshold | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F | 148 | 143 | 137 | 133 | 129 | 125 | 121 | 116 | 109 |
| 32°F | 166 | 160 | 155 | 151 | 148 | 145 | 141 | 136 | 128 |
| 28°F | 185 | 178 | 173 | 169 | 166 | 162 | 158 | 154 | 147 |
| 24°F | 204 | 198 | 193 | 189 | 185 | 181 | 177 | 172 | 164 |
| 20°F | 219 | 214 | 209 | 205 | 201 | 198 | 193 | 188 | 180 |
| 16°F | 232 | 226 | 222 | 217 | 214 | 211 | 207 | 203 | 197 |
How often it gets that cold
The share of years with at least one night at or below each temperature.
- 36°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 32°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 28°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 24°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 20°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 16°F or colder
- 100% of years
Degree days
A degree day is one degree of the daily mean temperature beyond a base, for one day. Heating degree days count cold (the fuel a house burns), cooling degree days heat, growing degree days the warmth a crop needs; each crop has its own base.
- Heating degree days, base 65°F
- 9,275
- Cooling degree days, base 65°F
- 470
- Growing degree days, base 40°F
- 4,029
- Growing degree days, base 45°F
- 3,103
- Growing degree days, base 50°F
- 2,275
- Growing degree days, base 55°F
- 1,548
- Growing degree days, base 60°F
- 938
Growing degree days by month, base 50°F
Heating and cooling by month
| Month | Heating DD | Cooling DD | Growing DD 50 |
|---|---|---|---|
| January | 1,820 | 0 | 0 |
| February | 1,504 | 0 | 0 |
| March | 1,218 | 0 | 1 |
| April | 701 | 1 | 39 |
| May | 309 | 22 | 229 |
| June | 72 | 98 | 478 |
| July | 23 | 167 | 609 |
| August | 37 | 141 | 569 |
| September | 213 | 39 | 296 |
| October | 644 | 2 | 54 |
| November | 1,122 | 0 | 1 |
| December | 1,613 | 0 | 0 |
What this means
NOAA computes these from the daily lows at the station over 1991-2020, fitting the dates of each year's last and first freeze to a distribution, so a date can be stated at any level of risk. 36°F is a frost risk for tender plants on a clear, calm night, since the ground cools below the air above it; 32°F is a freeze; 28°F is a hard freeze that kills most annuals.
The station is 46.9 km from Greenbush. Low ground, valleys and open fields freeze earlier and later than a town center or a hillside.
More
Sources
NOAA NCEI U.S. Climate Normals, 1991-2020, annual and seasonal normals for station USC00210050 (Agassiz Refuge). Public domain.