Bird Island Frost Dates and Growing Season
Frost and the growing season
NOAA's 1991-2020 freeze probabilities for Olivia 3E. A median date has an even chance of a later freeze in spring, or an earlier one in fall.
The last spring freeze typically comes around May 6 and the first fall freeze around October 1, a growing season of about 146 days.
- Median at 36°F
- last May 15, first September 21
- Median at 32°F
- last May 6, first October 1
- Median at 28°F
- last April 27, first October 10
Last freeze in spring
The chance of a later freeze than the date shown. At 10 percent, one spring in ten still freezes after the date; planting after the 10 percent date for 32°F is the cautious choice.
| Threshold | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F | May 28 | May 24 | May 21 | May 17 | May 15 | May 13 | May 10 | May 6 | May 3 |
| 32°F | May 20 | May 15 | May 12 | May 9 | May 6 | May 4 | May 1 | Apr 29 | Apr 23 |
| 28°F | May 10 | May 5 | May 2 | Apr 30 | Apr 27 | Apr 24 | Apr 21 | Apr 16 | Apr 12 |
| 24°F | May 1 | Apr 26 | Apr 23 | Apr 20 | Apr 17 | Apr 13 | Apr 10 | Apr 6 | Apr 2 |
| 20°F | Apr 22 | Apr 18 | Apr 13 | Apr 10 | Apr 7 | Apr 4 | Apr 2 | Mar 29 | Mar 22 |
| 16°F | Apr 15 | Apr 9 | Apr 5 | Apr 3 | Mar 31 | Mar 27 | Mar 23 | Mar 19 | Mar 13 |
First freeze in fall
The chance of an earlier freeze than the date shown. At 10 percent, one fall in ten freezes before the date.
| Threshold | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F | Sep 7 | Sep 13 | Sep 16 | Sep 19 | Sep 21 | Sep 25 | Sep 27 | Oct 1 | Oct 5 |
| 32°F | Sep 15 | Sep 20 | Sep 25 | Sep 27 | Oct 1 | Oct 3 | Oct 6 | Oct 9 | Oct 14 |
| 28°F | Sep 24 | Sep 29 | Oct 3 | Oct 6 | Oct 10 | Oct 13 | Oct 16 | Oct 20 | Oct 25 |
| 24°F | Oct 4 | Oct 11 | Oct 15 | Oct 19 | Oct 21 | Oct 24 | Oct 27 | Oct 31 | Nov 4 |
| 20°F | Oct 16 | Oct 21 | Oct 25 | Oct 29 | Oct 31 | Nov 2 | Nov 5 | Nov 8 | Nov 13 |
| 16°F | Oct 26 | Oct 31 | Nov 3 | Nov 6 | Nov 8 | Nov 11 | Nov 13 | Nov 17 | Nov 20 |
Growing season length
Days between the last spring and first fall freeze at each threshold, with the chance of a season at least that long.
| Threshold | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F | 147 | 141 | 137 | 132 | 129 | 125 | 121 | 116 | 109 |
| 32°F | 164 | 158 | 152 | 149 | 146 | 143 | 139 | 134 | 127 |
| 28°F | 185 | 179 | 174 | 169 | 165 | 161 | 157 | 153 | 146 |
| 24°F | 208 | 201 | 195 | 191 | 187 | 183 | 178 | 172 | 165 |
| 20°F | 226 | 218 | 213 | 209 | 205 | 201 | 197 | 192 | 187 |
| 16°F | 242 | 234 | 229 | 224 | 220 | 216 | 212 | 207 | 200 |
How often it gets that cold
The share of years with at least one night at or below each temperature.
- 36°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 32°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 28°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 24°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 20°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 16°F or colder
- 100% of years
Degree days
A degree day is one degree of the daily mean temperature beyond a base, for one day. Heating degree days count cold (the fuel a house burns), cooling degree days heat, growing degree days the warmth a crop needs; each crop has its own base.
- Heating degree days, base 65°F
- 8,436
- Cooling degree days, base 65°F
- 513
- Growing degree days, base 40°F
- 4,248
- Growing degree days, base 45°F
- 3,269
- Growing degree days, base 50°F
- 2,403
- Growing degree days, base 55°F
- 1,646
- Growing degree days, base 60°F
- 1,009
Growing degree days by month, base 50°F
Heating and cooling by month
| Month | Heating DD | Cooling DD | Growing DD 50 |
|---|---|---|---|
| January | 1,652 | 0 | 0 |
| February | 1,373 | 0 | 0 |
| March | 1,126 | 0 | 6 |
| April | 648 | 1 | 48 |
| May | 288 | 30 | 246 |
| June | 55 | 121 | 516 |
| July | 15 | 185 | 635 |
| August | 37 | 125 | 553 |
| September | 193 | 46 | 318 |
| October | 580 | 4 | 75 |
| November | 1,011 | 0 | 4 |
| December | 1,458 | 0 | 0 |
What this means
NOAA computes these from the daily lows at the station over 1991-2020, fitting the dates of each year's last and first freeze to a distribution, so a date can be stated at any level of risk. 36°F is a frost risk for tender plants on a clear, calm night, since the ground cools below the air above it; 32°F is a freeze; 28°F is a hard freeze that kills most annuals.
The station is 2.7 km from Bird Island. Low ground, valleys and open fields freeze earlier and later than a town center or a hillside.
More
Sources
NOAA NCEI U.S. Climate Normals, 1991-2020, annual and seasonal normals for station USC00216152 (Olivia 3E). Public domain.