Bagley Frost Dates and Growing Season
Frost and the growing season
NOAA's 1991-2020 freeze probabilities for Fosston 1 E. A median date has an even chance of a later freeze in spring, or an earlier one in fall.
The last spring freeze typically comes around May 15 and the first fall freeze around September 26, a growing season of about 132 days.
- Median at 36°F
- last May 27, first September 14
- Median at 32°F
- last May 15, first September 26
- Median at 28°F
- last May 4, first October 5
Last freeze in spring
The chance of a later freeze than the date shown. At 10 percent, one spring in ten still freezes after the date; planting after the 10 percent date for 32°F is the cautious choice.
| Threshold | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F | Jun 17 | Jun 6 | Jun 2 | May 30 | May 27 | May 25 | May 22 | May 18 | May 13 |
| 32°F | May 30 | May 25 | May 22 | May 18 | May 15 | May 12 | May 9 | May 5 | May 2 |
| 28°F | May 20 | May 14 | May 10 | May 6 | May 4 | May 1 | Apr 29 | Apr 25 | Apr 20 |
| 24°F | May 9 | May 3 | Apr 30 | Apr 27 | Apr 24 | Apr 21 | Apr 18 | Apr 15 | Apr 9 |
| 20°F | Apr 29 | Apr 24 | Apr 20 | Apr 17 | Apr 15 | Apr 12 | Apr 9 | Apr 6 | Apr 3 |
| 16°F | Apr 22 | Apr 17 | Apr 13 | Apr 10 | Apr 8 | Apr 5 | Apr 3 | Mar 31 | Mar 24 |
First freeze in fall
The chance of an earlier freeze than the date shown. At 10 percent, one fall in ten freezes before the date.
| Threshold | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F | Aug 28 | Sep 2 | Sep 7 | Sep 11 | Sep 14 | Sep 17 | Sep 20 | Sep 23 | Sep 28 |
| 32°F | Sep 10 | Sep 16 | Sep 20 | Sep 23 | Sep 26 | Sep 29 | Oct 1 | Oct 4 | Oct 8 |
| 28°F | Sep 23 | Sep 27 | Sep 30 | Oct 2 | Oct 5 | Oct 9 | Oct 12 | Oct 16 | Oct 22 |
| 24°F | Oct 2 | Oct 6 | Oct 10 | Oct 15 | Oct 18 | Oct 21 | Oct 25 | Oct 28 | Nov 1 |
| 20°F | Oct 10 | Oct 18 | Oct 22 | Oct 26 | Oct 29 | Oct 31 | Nov 2 | Nov 5 | Nov 10 |
| 16°F | Oct 21 | Oct 27 | Oct 31 | Nov 2 | Nov 5 | Nov 7 | Nov 10 | Nov 13 | Nov 17 |
Growing season length
Days between the last spring and first fall freeze at each threshold, with the chance of a season at least that long.
| Threshold | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F | 130 | 123 | 117 | 113 | 109 | 103 | 97 | 90 | 79 |
| 32°F | 152 | 146 | 141 | 136 | 132 | 128 | 123 | 117 | 109 |
| 28°F | 173 | 166 | 161 | 156 | 152 | 148 | 143 | 138 | 131 |
| 24°F | 194 | 188 | 182 | 177 | 173 | 169 | 164 | 159 | 152 |
| 20°F | 214 | 207 | 202 | 197 | 194 | 190 | 186 | 180 | 173 |
| 16°F | 229 | 222 | 218 | 213 | 210 | 206 | 201 | 196 | 189 |
How often it gets that cold
The share of years with at least one night at or below each temperature.
- 36°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 32°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 28°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 24°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 20°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 16°F or colder
- 100% of years
Degree days
A degree day is one degree of the daily mean temperature beyond a base, for one day. Heating degree days count cold (the fuel a house burns), cooling degree days heat, growing degree days the warmth a crop needs; each crop has its own base.
- Heating degree days, base 65°F
- 9,778
- Cooling degree days, base 65°F
- 287
- Growing degree days, base 40°F
- 3,547
- Growing degree days, base 45°F
- 2,656
- Growing degree days, base 50°F
- 1,871
- Growing degree days, base 55°F
- 1,195
- Growing degree days, base 60°F
- 657
Growing degree days by month, base 50°F
Heating and cooling by month
| Month | Heating DD | Cooling DD | Growing DD 50 |
|---|---|---|---|
| January | 1,849 | 0 | 0 |
| February | 1,546 | 0 | 0 |
| March | 1,276 | 0 | 2 |
| April | 762 | 0 | 29 |
| May | 377 | 14 | 181 |
| June | 119 | 61 | 395 |
| July | 52 | 108 | 521 |
| August | 78 | 77 | 464 |
| September | 277 | 26 | 234 |
| October | 690 | 1 | 44 |
| November | 1,143 | 0 | 2 |
| December | 1,610 | 0 | 0 |
What this means
NOAA computes these from the daily lows at the station over 1991-2020, fitting the dates of each year's last and first freeze to a distribution, so a date can be stated at any level of risk. 36°F is a frost risk for tender plants on a clear, calm night, since the ground cools below the air above it; 32°F is a freeze; 28°F is a hard freeze that kills most annuals.
The station is 25 km from Bagley. Low ground, valleys and open fields freeze earlier and later than a town center or a hillside.
More
Sources
NOAA NCEI U.S. Climate Normals, 1991-2020, annual and seasonal normals for station USC00212916 (Fosston 1 E). Public domain.