Napoleon Frost Dates and Growing Season
Frost and the growing season
NOAA's 1991-2020 freeze probabilities for Manchester. A median date has an even chance of a later freeze in spring, or an earlier one in fall.
The last spring freeze typically comes around April 30 and the first fall freeze around October 14, a growing season of about 165 days.
- Median at 36°F
- last May 10, first October 3
- Median at 32°F
- last April 30, first October 14
- Median at 28°F
- last April 19, first October 27
Last freeze in spring
The chance of a later freeze than the date shown. At 10 percent, one spring in ten still freezes after the date; planting after the 10 percent date for 32°F is the cautious choice.
| Threshold | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F | May 26 | May 21 | May 17 | May 13 | May 10 | May 7 | May 4 | Apr 30 | Apr 26 |
| 32°F | May 16 | May 10 | May 6 | May 3 | Apr 30 | Apr 28 | Apr 25 | Apr 21 | Apr 16 |
| 28°F | May 5 | Apr 30 | Apr 26 | Apr 22 | Apr 19 | Apr 17 | Apr 14 | Apr 10 | Apr 6 |
| 24°F | Apr 22 | Apr 16 | Apr 13 | Apr 10 | Apr 7 | Apr 5 | Apr 3 | Mar 31 | Mar 25 |
| 20°F | Apr 10 | Apr 6 | Apr 3 | Apr 1 | Mar 29 | Mar 26 | Mar 22 | Mar 18 | Mar 12 |
| 16°F | Apr 1 | Mar 29 | Mar 26 | Mar 22 | Mar 19 | Mar 16 | Mar 12 | Mar 8 | Mar 3 |
First freeze in fall
The chance of an earlier freeze than the date shown. At 10 percent, one fall in ten freezes before the date.
| Threshold | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F | Sep 19 | Sep 24 | Sep 28 | Oct 1 | Oct 3 | Oct 5 | Oct 8 | Oct 11 | Oct 16 |
| 32°F | Oct 1 | Oct 5 | Oct 8 | Oct 11 | Oct 14 | Oct 17 | Oct 20 | Oct 24 | Oct 29 |
| 28°F | Oct 11 | Oct 17 | Oct 21 | Oct 24 | Oct 27 | Oct 30 | Nov 1 | Nov 4 | Nov 10 |
| 24°F | Oct 24 | Oct 31 | Nov 2 | Nov 4 | Nov 7 | Nov 10 | Nov 14 | Nov 17 | Nov 22 |
| 20°F | Nov 4 | Nov 9 | Nov 13 | Nov 16 | Nov 19 | Nov 23 | Nov 26 | Nov 30 | Dec 6 |
| 16°F | Nov 14 | Nov 20 | Nov 24 | Nov 28 | Dec 1 | Dec 4 | Dec 7 | Dec 14 | Dec 20 |
Growing season length
Days between the last spring and first fall freeze at each threshold, with the chance of a season at least that long.
| Threshold | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F | 162 | 156 | 152 | 147 | 144 | 139 | 136 | 130 | 123 |
| 32°F | 185 | 178 | 173 | 169 | 165 | 161 | 157 | 151 | 144 |
| 28°F | 210 | 201 | 196 | 192 | 188 | 184 | 179 | 174 | 166 |
| 24°F | 234 | 227 | 222 | 217 | 213 | 210 | 205 | 200 | 193 |
| 20°F | 260 | 251 | 245 | 241 | 237 | 232 | 228 | 223 | 216 |
| 16°F | 282 | 274 | 268 | 262 | 258 | 253 | 248 | 243 | 235 |
How often it gets that cold
The share of years with at least one night at or below each temperature.
- 36°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 32°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 28°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 24°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 20°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 16°F or colder
- 100% of years
Degree days
A degree day is one degree of the daily mean temperature beyond a base, for one day. Heating degree days count cold (the fuel a house burns), cooling degree days heat, growing degree days the warmth a crop needs; each crop has its own base.
- Heating degree days, base 65°F
- 6,652
- Cooling degree days, base 65°F
- 592
- Growing degree days, base 40°F
- 4,741
- Growing degree days, base 45°F
- 3,641
- Growing degree days, base 50°F
- 2,680
- Growing degree days, base 55°F
- 1,850
- Growing degree days, base 60°F
- 1,145
Growing degree days by month, base 50°F
Heating and cooling by month
| Month | Heating DD | Cooling DD | Growing DD 50 |
|---|---|---|---|
| January | 1,291 | 0 | 0 |
| February | 1,112 | 0 | 0 |
| March | 926 | 1 | 16 |
| April | 548 | 2 | 70 |
| May | 238 | 32 | 279 |
| June | 47 | 122 | 525 |
| July | 11 | 204 | 659 |
| August | 16 | 167 | 617 |
| September | 129 | 57 | 382 |
| October | 448 | 6 | 117 |
| November | 785 | 0 | 14 |
| December | 1,102 | 0 | 2 |
What this means
NOAA computes these from the daily lows at the station over 1991-2020, fitting the dates of each year's last and first freeze to a distribution, so a date can be stated at any level of risk. 36°F is a frost risk for tender plants on a clear, calm night, since the ground cools below the air above it; 32°F is a freeze; 28°F is a hard freeze that kills most annuals.
The station is 18.4 km from Napoleon. Low ground, valleys and open fields freeze earlier and later than a town center or a hillside.
More
Sources
NOAA NCEI U.S. Climate Normals, 1991-2020, annual and seasonal normals for station USC00205050 (Manchester). Public domain.