Carleton Frost Dates and Growing Season
Frost and the growing season
NOAA's 1991-2020 freeze probabilities for Carleton 2W. A median date has an even chance of a later freeze in spring, or an earlier one in fall.
The last spring freeze typically comes around April 27 and the first fall freeze around October 20, a growing season of about 176 days.
- Median at 36°F
- last May 6, first October 6
- Median at 32°F
- last April 27, first October 20
- Median at 28°F
- last April 15, first November 1
Last freeze in spring
The chance of a later freeze than the date shown. At 10 percent, one spring in ten still freezes after the date; planting after the 10 percent date for 32°F is the cautious choice.
| Threshold | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F | May 22 | May 17 | May 13 | May 9 | May 6 | May 3 | Apr 30 | Apr 28 | Apr 22 |
| 32°F | May 13 | May 6 | May 2 | Apr 30 | Apr 27 | Apr 23 | Apr 20 | Apr 17 | Apr 12 |
| 28°F | May 2 | Apr 25 | Apr 21 | Apr 17 | Apr 15 | Apr 12 | Apr 8 | Apr 4 | Mar 31 |
| 24°F | Apr 16 | Apr 11 | Apr 7 | Apr 3 | Apr 2 | Mar 31 | Mar 27 | Mar 22 | Mar 18 |
| 20°F | Apr 6 | Apr 1 | Mar 29 | Mar 26 | Mar 22 | Mar 19 | Mar 16 | Mar 12 | Mar 8 |
| 16°F | Mar 28 | Mar 22 | Mar 18 | Mar 16 | Mar 13 | Mar 10 | Mar 7 | Mar 3 | Feb 26 |
First freeze in fall
The chance of an earlier freeze than the date shown. At 10 percent, one fall in ten freezes before the date.
| Threshold | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F | Sep 23 | Sep 27 | Sep 30 | Oct 3 | Oct 6 | Oct 8 | Oct 12 | Oct 16 | Oct 21 |
| 32°F | Oct 4 | Oct 9 | Oct 13 | Oct 17 | Oct 20 | Oct 23 | Oct 26 | Oct 29 | Nov 2 |
| 28°F | Oct 17 | Oct 23 | Oct 26 | Oct 30 | Nov 1 | Nov 2 | Nov 5 | Nov 9 | Nov 14 |
| 24°F | Oct 30 | Nov 2 | Nov 5 | Nov 8 | Nov 11 | Nov 14 | Nov 17 | Nov 21 | Nov 26 |
| 20°F | Nov 7 | Nov 12 | Nov 16 | Nov 19 | Nov 23 | Nov 26 | Nov 30 | Dec 5 | Dec 12 |
| 16°F | Nov 17 | Nov 23 | Nov 28 | Dec 1 | Dec 4 | Dec 8 | Dec 13 | Dec 18 | Dec 23 |
Growing season length
Days between the last spring and first fall freeze at each threshold, with the chance of a season at least that long.
| Threshold | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F | 174 | 167 | 162 | 158 | 153 | 150 | 145 | 141 | 134 |
| 32°F | 195 | 189 | 184 | 179 | 176 | 172 | 167 | 161 | 154 |
| 28°F | 220 | 213 | 208 | 203 | 199 | 195 | 191 | 186 | 180 |
| 24°F | 244 | 236 | 230 | 226 | 223 | 219 | 214 | 209 | 203 |
| 20°F | 268 | 260 | 254 | 250 | 246 | 241 | 236 | 230 | 223 |
| 16°F | 290 | 282 | 276 | 271 | 266 | 262 | 258 | 252 | 245 |
How often it gets that cold
The share of years with at least one night at or below each temperature.
- 36°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 32°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 28°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 24°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 20°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 16°F or colder
- 100% of years
Degree days
A degree day is one degree of the daily mean temperature beyond a base, for one day. Heating degree days count cold (the fuel a house burns), cooling degree days heat, growing degree days the warmth a crop needs; each crop has its own base.
- Heating degree days, base 65°F
- 6,302
- Cooling degree days, base 65°F
- 699
- Growing degree days, base 40°F
- 5,029
- Growing degree days, base 45°F
- 3,887
- Growing degree days, base 50°F
- 2,889
- Growing degree days, base 55°F
- 2,030
- Growing degree days, base 60°F
- 1,292
Growing degree days by month, base 50°F
Heating and cooling by month
| Month | Heating DD | Cooling DD | Growing DD 50 |
|---|---|---|---|
| January | 1,246 | 0 | 1 |
| February | 1,075 | 0 | 0 |
| March | 890 | 0 | 15 |
| April | 514 | 2 | 73 |
| May | 213 | 35 | 304 |
| June | 28 | 146 | 569 |
| July | 7 | 244 | 702 |
| August | 11 | 192 | 646 |
| September | 108 | 72 | 415 |
| October | 403 | 8 | 142 |
| November | 741 | 0 | 20 |
| December | 1,066 | 0 | 2 |
What this means
NOAA computes these from the daily lows at the station over 1991-2020, fitting the dates of each year's last and first freeze to a distribution, so a date can be stated at any level of risk. 36°F is a frost risk for tender plants on a clear, calm night, since the ground cools below the air above it; 32°F is a freeze; 28°F is a hard freeze that kills most annuals.
The station is 3.7 km from Carleton. Low ground, valleys and open fields freeze earlier and later than a town center or a hillside.
More
Sources
NOAA NCEI U.S. Climate Normals, 1991-2020, annual and seasonal normals for station USC00201250 (Carleton 2W). Public domain.