Alanson Frost Dates and Growing Season
Frost and the growing season
NOAA's 1991-2020 freeze probabilities for Petoskey Ncmc. A median date has an even chance of a later freeze in spring, or an earlier one in fall.
The last spring freeze typically comes around May 16 and the first fall freeze around October 9, a growing season of about 147 days.
- Median at 36°F
- last May 28, first September 28
- Median at 32°F
- last May 16, first October 9
- Median at 28°F
- last May 2, first October 23
Last freeze in spring
The chance of a later freeze than the date shown. At 10 percent, one spring in ten still freezes after the date; planting after the 10 percent date for 32°F is the cautious choice.
| Threshold | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F | Jun 13 | Jun 6 | Jun 3 | May 31 | May 28 | May 25 | May 23 | May 19 | May 13 |
| 32°F | May 31 | May 26 | May 23 | May 20 | May 16 | May 13 | May 9 | May 4 | Apr 30 |
| 28°F | May 18 | May 12 | May 8 | May 5 | May 2 | Apr 30 | Apr 28 | Apr 24 | Apr 20 |
| 24°F | May 5 | May 1 | Apr 28 | Apr 25 | Apr 22 | Apr 19 | Apr 16 | Apr 13 | Apr 7 |
| 20°F | Apr 24 | Apr 19 | Apr 15 | Apr 12 | Apr 9 | Apr 6 | Apr 4 | Apr 1 | Mar 28 |
| 16°F | Apr 14 | Apr 9 | Apr 6 | Apr 3 | Apr 1 | Mar 31 | Mar 28 | Mar 23 | Mar 18 |
First freeze in fall
The chance of an earlier freeze than the date shown. At 10 percent, one fall in ten freezes before the date.
| Threshold | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F | Sep 13 | Sep 19 | Sep 22 | Sep 26 | Sep 28 | Oct 1 | Oct 3 | Oct 6 | Oct 10 |
| 32°F | Sep 27 | Oct 1 | Oct 4 | Oct 7 | Oct 9 | Oct 12 | Oct 15 | Oct 19 | Oct 23 |
| 28°F | Oct 8 | Oct 13 | Oct 17 | Oct 20 | Oct 23 | Oct 27 | Oct 30 | Nov 2 | Nov 7 |
| 24°F | Oct 23 | Oct 29 | Nov 1 | Nov 3 | Nov 6 | Nov 9 | Nov 12 | Nov 17 | Nov 23 |
| 20°F | Nov 4 | Nov 9 | Nov 12 | Nov 15 | Nov 18 | Nov 21 | Nov 25 | Nov 30 | Dec 5 |
| 16°F | Nov 11 | Nov 17 | Nov 21 | Nov 25 | Nov 29 | Dec 2 | Dec 5 | Dec 11 | Dec 19 |
Growing season length
Days between the last spring and first fall freeze at each threshold, with the chance of a season at least that long.
| Threshold | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F | 141 | 135 | 130 | 125 | 122 | 118 | 113 | 108 | 101 |
| 32°F | 168 | 160 | 155 | 151 | 147 | 143 | 138 | 133 | 126 |
| 28°F | 193 | 187 | 182 | 178 | 174 | 169 | 164 | 159 | 151 |
| 24°F | 220 | 212 | 207 | 202 | 197 | 192 | 187 | 182 | 175 |
| 20°F | 245 | 236 | 231 | 227 | 223 | 219 | 213 | 209 | 201 |
| 16°F | 263 | 256 | 251 | 246 | 241 | 236 | 233 | 227 | 221 |
How often it gets that cold
The share of years with at least one night at or below each temperature.
- 36°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 32°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 28°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 24°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 20°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 16°F or colder
- 100% of years
Degree days
A degree day is one degree of the daily mean temperature beyond a base, for one day. Heating degree days count cold (the fuel a house burns), cooling degree days heat, growing degree days the warmth a crop needs; each crop has its own base.
- Heating degree days, base 65°F
- 8,075
- Cooling degree days, base 65°F
- 296
- Growing degree days, base 40°F
- 3,721
- Growing degree days, base 45°F
- 2,766
- Growing degree days, base 50°F
- 1,941
- Growing degree days, base 55°F
- 1,237
- Growing degree days, base 60°F
- 680
Growing degree days by month, base 50°F
Heating and cooling by month
| Month | Heating DD | Cooling DD | Growing DD 50 |
|---|---|---|---|
| January | 1,423 | 0 | 0 |
| February | 1,271 | 0 | 0 |
| March | 1,163 | 0 | 8 |
| April | 756 | 0 | 27 |
| May | 407 | 13 | 156 |
| June | 137 | 53 | 372 |
| July | 54 | 106 | 518 |
| August | 61 | 84 | 488 |
| September | 206 | 38 | 294 |
| October | 546 | 2 | 71 |
| November | 863 | 0 | 9 |
| December | 1,190 | 0 | 0 |
What this means
NOAA computes these from the daily lows at the station over 1991-2020, fitting the dates of each year's last and first freeze to a distribution, so a date can be stated at any level of risk. 36°F is a frost risk for tender plants on a clear, calm night, since the ground cools below the air above it; 32°F is a freeze; 28°F is a hard freeze that kills most annuals.
The station is 15.8 km from Alanson. Low ground, valleys and open fields freeze earlier and later than a town center or a hillside.
More
Sources
NOAA NCEI U.S. Climate Normals, 1991-2020, annual and seasonal normals for station USC00206510 (Petoskey Ncmc). Public domain.