Warwick Frost Dates and Growing Season
Frost and the growing season
NOAA's 1991-2020 freeze probabilities for Tully Lake. A median date has an even chance of a later freeze in spring, or an earlier one in fall.
The last spring freeze typically comes around April 25 and the first fall freeze around October 17, a growing season of about 175 days.
- Median at 36°F
- last May 8, first October 5
- Median at 32°F
- last April 25, first October 17
- Median at 28°F
- last April 12, first October 30
Last freeze in spring
The chance of a later freeze than the date shown. At 10 percent, one spring in ten still freezes after the date; planting after the 10 percent date for 32°F is the cautious choice.
| Threshold | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F | May 20 | May 16 | May 13 | May 11 | May 8 | May 4 | May 2 | Apr 30 | Apr 26 |
| 32°F | May 8 | May 4 | Apr 30 | Apr 28 | Apr 25 | Apr 23 | Apr 21 | Apr 18 | Apr 13 |
| 28°F | Apr 26 | Apr 21 | Apr 18 | Apr 15 | Apr 12 | Apr 9 | Apr 7 | Apr 4 | Apr 1 |
| 24°F | Apr 13 | Apr 9 | Apr 6 | Apr 4 | Apr 2 | Apr 1 | Mar 30 | Mar 26 | Mar 20 |
| 20°F | Apr 5 | Apr 2 | Mar 31 | Mar 29 | Mar 26 | Mar 22 | Mar 19 | Mar 16 | Mar 12 |
| 16°F | Mar 31 | Mar 27 | Mar 24 | Mar 21 | Mar 18 | Mar 16 | Mar 13 | Mar 10 | Mar 5 |
First freeze in fall
The chance of an earlier freeze than the date shown. At 10 percent, one fall in ten freezes before the date.
| Threshold | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F | Sep 24 | Sep 28 | Oct 1 | Oct 2 | Oct 5 | Oct 7 | Oct 10 | Oct 14 | Oct 19 |
| 32°F | Oct 3 | Oct 7 | Oct 11 | Oct 14 | Oct 17 | Oct 20 | Oct 23 | Oct 29 | Nov 2 |
| 28°F | Oct 14 | Oct 20 | Oct 24 | Oct 28 | Oct 30 | Nov 1 | Nov 5 | Nov 9 | Nov 14 |
| 24°F | Oct 30 | Nov 2 | Nov 5 | Nov 9 | Nov 12 | Nov 16 | Nov 19 | Nov 22 | Nov 28 |
| 20°F | Nov 9 | Nov 15 | Nov 18 | Nov 21 | Nov 24 | Nov 27 | Nov 30 | Dec 2 | Dec 8 |
| 16°F | Nov 21 | Nov 26 | Nov 29 | Dec 1 | Dec 3 | Dec 6 | Dec 9 | Dec 14 | Dec 20 |
Growing season length
Days between the last spring and first fall freeze at each threshold, with the chance of a season at least that long.
| Threshold | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F | 169 | 162 | 158 | 154 | 150 | 146 | 143 | 139 | 134 |
| 32°F | 195 | 188 | 183 | 179 | 175 | 171 | 166 | 161 | 155 |
| 28°F | 220 | 213 | 208 | 205 | 202 | 199 | 195 | 190 | 183 |
| 24°F | 243 | 236 | 232 | 228 | 225 | 221 | 216 | 212 | 205 |
| 20°F | 264 | 258 | 253 | 248 | 245 | 241 | 237 | 233 | 227 |
| 16°F | 281 | 274 | 269 | 265 | 262 | 258 | 254 | 248 | 242 |
How often it gets that cold
The share of years with at least one night at or below each temperature.
- 36°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 32°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 28°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 24°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 20°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 16°F or colder
- 100% of years
Degree days
A degree day is one degree of the daily mean temperature beyond a base, for one day. Heating degree days count cold (the fuel a house burns), cooling degree days heat, growing degree days the warmth a crop needs; each crop has its own base.
- Heating degree days, base 65°F
- 6,529
- Cooling degree days, base 65°F
- 766
- Growing degree days, base 40°F
- 4,961
- Growing degree days, base 45°F
- 3,856
- Growing degree days, base 50°F
- 2,887
- Growing degree days, base 55°F
- 2,049
- Growing degree days, base 60°F
- 1,340
Growing degree days by month, base 50°F
Heating and cooling by month
| Month | Heating DD | Cooling DD | Growing DD 50 |
|---|---|---|---|
| January | 1,285 | 0 | 0 |
| February | 1,098 | 0 | 1 |
| March | 956 | 0 | 6 |
| April | 536 | 4 | 71 |
| May | 218 | 38 | 296 |
| June | 44 | 144 | 551 |
| July | 4 | 275 | 736 |
| August | 11 | 222 | 676 |
| September | 115 | 78 | 415 |
| October | 432 | 6 | 119 |
| November | 744 | 0 | 16 |
| December | 1,087 | 0 | 1 |
What this means
NOAA computes these from the daily lows at the station over 1991-2020, fitting the dates of each year's last and first freeze to a distribution, so a date can be stated at any level of risk. 36°F is a frost risk for tender plants on a clear, calm night, since the ground cools below the air above it; 32°F is a freeze; 28°F is a hard freeze that kills most annuals.
The station is 10.5 km from Warwick. Low ground, valleys and open fields freeze earlier and later than a town center or a hillside.
More
Sources
NOAA NCEI U.S. Climate Normals, 1991-2020, annual and seasonal normals for station USC00198573 (Tully Lake). Public domain.