Ball Frost Dates and Growing Season
Frost and the growing season
NOAA's 1991-2020 freeze probabilities for Alexandria. A median date has an even chance of a later freeze in spring, or an earlier one in fall.
The last spring freeze typically comes around February 27 and the first fall freeze around November 27, a growing season of about 274 days.
- Median at 36°F
- last March 12, first November 14
- Median at 32°F
- last February 27, first November 27
- Median at 28°F
- last February 8, first December 13
Last freeze in spring
The chance of a later freeze than the date shown. At 10 percent, one spring in ten still freezes after the date; planting after the 10 percent date for 32°F is the cautious choice.
| Threshold | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F | Apr 2 | Mar 27 | Mar 20 | Mar 16 | Mar 12 | Mar 7 | Mar 3 | Feb 27 | Feb 21 |
| 32°F | Mar 18 | Mar 11 | Mar 6 | Mar 2 | Feb 27 | Feb 24 | Feb 19 | Feb 11 | Jan 31 |
| 28°F | Mar 8 | Mar 1 | Feb 24 | Feb 17 | Feb 8 | Feb 2 | Jan 29 | Jan 22 | Jan 6 |
| 24°F | Feb 26 | Feb 12 | Feb 3 | Jan 30 | Jan 25 | Jan 19 | Jan 12 | Jan 4 | Dec 24 |
| 20°F | Feb 5 | Jan 31 | Jan 25 | Jan 20 | Jan 14 | Jan 10 | Jan 5 | Dec 31 | Dec 21 |
| 16°F | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
First freeze in fall
The chance of an earlier freeze than the date shown. At 10 percent, one fall in ten freezes before the date.
| Threshold | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F | Oct 31 | Nov 4 | Nov 7 | Nov 11 | Nov 14 | Nov 18 | Nov 22 | Nov 27 | Dec 1 |
| 32°F | Nov 7 | Nov 13 | Nov 18 | Nov 22 | Nov 27 | Dec 1 | Dec 4 | Dec 8 | Dec 19 |
| 28°F | Nov 18 | Nov 26 | Dec 1 | Dec 6 | Dec 13 | Dec 21 | Dec 26 | Jan 1 | Jan 10 |
| 24°F | Dec 1 | Dec 12 | Dec 22 | Dec 28 | Jan 1 | Jan 5 | Jan 11 | Jan 18 | Feb 1 |
| 20°F | Dec 14 | Dec 25 | Dec 31 | Jan 2 | Jan 6 | Jan 11 | Jan 15 | Jan 22 | Feb 1 |
| 16°F | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Growing season length
Days between the last spring and first fall freeze at each threshold, with the chance of a season at least that long.
| Threshold | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F | 274 | 265 | 258 | 253 | 248 | 242 | 236 | 229 | 220 |
| 32°F | 306 | 295 | 286 | 279 | 274 | 269 | 262 | 254 | 243 |
| 28°F | 348 | 336 | 328 | 317 | 308 | 302 | 293 | 284 | 273 |
| 24°F | 365 | 365 | 365 | 355 | 348 | 341 | 334 | 325 | 309 |
| 20°F | 365 | 365 | 365 | 365 | 365 | 365 | 365 | 354 | 341 |
| 16°F | 365 | 365 | 365 | 365 | 365 | 365 | 365 | 365 | 365 |
How often it gets that cold
The share of years with at least one night at or below each temperature.
- 36°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 32°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 28°F or colder
- 96% of years
- 24°F or colder
- 73% of years
- 20°F or colder
- 36% of years
- 16°F or colder
- 9% of years
Degree days
A degree day is one degree of the daily mean temperature beyond a base, for one day. Heating degree days count cold (the fuel a house burns), cooling degree days heat, growing degree days the warmth a crop needs; each crop has its own base.
- Heating degree days, base 65°F
- 1,961
- Cooling degree days, base 65°F
- 2,558
- Growing degree days, base 40°F
- 9,782
- Growing degree days, base 45°F
- 8,067
- Growing degree days, base 50°F
- 6,468
- Growing degree days, base 55°F
- 5,005
- Growing degree days, base 60°F
- 3,693
Growing degree days by month, base 50°F
Heating and cooling by month
| Month | Heating DD | Cooling DD | Growing DD 50 |
|---|---|---|---|
| January | 516 | 4 | 98 |
| February | 368 | 9 | 139 |
| March | 216 | 36 | 309 |
| April | 75 | 101 | 478 |
| May | 7 | 280 | 738 |
| June | 0 | 454 | 904 |
| July | 0 | 547 | 1,012 |
| August | 0 | 550 | 1,015 |
| September | 2 | 393 | 841 |
| October | 63 | 150 | 554 |
| November | 256 | 25 | 253 |
| December | 459 | 8 | 126 |
What this means
NOAA computes these from the daily lows at the station over 1991-2020, fitting the dates of each year's last and first freeze to a distribution, so a date can be stated at any level of risk. 36°F is a frost risk for tender plants on a clear, calm night, since the ground cools below the air above it; 32°F is a freeze; 28°F is a hard freeze that kills most annuals.
The station is 11.6 km from Ball. Low ground, valleys and open fields freeze earlier and later than a town center or a hillside.
More
Sources
NOAA NCEI U.S. Climate Normals, 1991-2020, annual and seasonal normals for station USC00160098 (Alexandria). Public domain.