Nicholas County Frost Dates and Growing Season
Frost and the growing season
NOAA's 1991-2020 freeze probabilities for Flemingsburg 2 N. A median date has an even chance of a later freeze in spring, or an earlier one in fall.
The last spring freeze typically comes around April 12 and the first fall freeze around October 30, a growing season of about 200 days.
- Median at 36°F
- last April 26, first October 20
- Median at 32°F
- last April 12, first October 30
- Median at 28°F
- last March 31, first November 8
Last freeze in spring
The chance of a later freeze than the date shown. At 10 percent, one spring in ten still freezes after the date; planting after the 10 percent date for 32°F is the cautious choice.
| Threshold | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F | May 14 | May 8 | May 4 | Apr 30 | Apr 26 | Apr 22 | Apr 19 | Apr 15 | Apr 9 |
| 32°F | May 2 | Apr 25 | Apr 19 | Apr 15 | Apr 12 | Apr 7 | Apr 4 | Apr 1 | Mar 27 |
| 28°F | Apr 16 | Apr 9 | Apr 5 | Apr 2 | Mar 31 | Mar 28 | Mar 25 | Mar 20 | Mar 14 |
| 24°F | Apr 3 | Mar 30 | Mar 27 | Mar 23 | Mar 20 | Mar 16 | Mar 12 | Mar 6 | Feb 28 |
| 20°F | Mar 26 | Mar 20 | Mar 16 | Mar 12 | Mar 7 | Mar 3 | Feb 28 | Feb 22 | Feb 14 |
| 16°F | Mar 18 | Mar 11 | Mar 5 | Mar 1 | Feb 26 | Feb 20 | Feb 13 | Feb 7 | Feb 2 |
First freeze in fall
The chance of an earlier freeze than the date shown. At 10 percent, one fall in ten freezes before the date.
| Threshold | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F | Oct 6 | Oct 11 | Oct 14 | Oct 17 | Oct 20 | Oct 23 | Oct 25 | Oct 28 | Oct 31 |
| 32°F | Oct 17 | Oct 22 | Oct 25 | Oct 28 | Oct 30 | Nov 1 | Nov 2 | Nov 6 | Nov 11 |
| 28°F | Oct 28 | Nov 1 | Nov 3 | Nov 5 | Nov 8 | Nov 11 | Nov 15 | Nov 18 | Nov 25 |
| 24°F | Nov 5 | Nov 10 | Nov 14 | Nov 17 | Nov 21 | Nov 25 | Nov 29 | Dec 4 | Dec 10 |
| 20°F | Nov 14 | Nov 20 | Nov 26 | Nov 30 | Dec 3 | Dec 7 | Dec 11 | Dec 18 | Dec 25 |
| 16°F | Nov 26 | Dec 3 | Dec 8 | Dec 12 | Dec 19 | Dec 23 | Dec 28 | Jan 2 | Jan 11 |
Growing season length
Days between the last spring and first fall freeze at each threshold, with the chance of a season at least that long.
| Threshold | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F | 197 | 189 | 184 | 179 | 175 | 170 | 166 | 161 | 153 |
| 32°F | 222 | 214 | 208 | 204 | 200 | 194 | 188 | 183 | 174 |
| 28°F | 248 | 238 | 232 | 227 | 224 | 219 | 214 | 210 | 201 |
| 24°F | 274 | 264 | 256 | 252 | 247 | 242 | 237 | 232 | 225 |
| 20°F | 301 | 291 | 284 | 278 | 272 | 267 | 261 | 255 | 247 |
| 16°F | 327 | 315 | 307 | 302 | 296 | 290 | 283 | 276 | 267 |
How often it gets that cold
The share of years with at least one night at or below each temperature.
- 36°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 32°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 28°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 24°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 20°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 16°F or colder
- 100% of years
Degree days
A degree day is one degree of the daily mean temperature beyond a base, for one day. Heating degree days count cold (the fuel a house burns), cooling degree days heat, growing degree days the warmth a crop needs; each crop has its own base.
- Heating degree days, base 65°F
- 4,846
- Cooling degree days, base 65°F
- 1,095
- Growing degree days, base 40°F
- 6,223
- Growing degree days, base 45°F
- 4,900
- Growing degree days, base 50°F
- 3,735
- Growing degree days, base 55°F
- 2,718
- Growing degree days, base 60°F
- 1,837
Growing degree days by month, base 50°F
Heating and cooling by month
| Month | Heating DD | Cooling DD | Growing DD 50 |
|---|---|---|---|
| January | 1,021 | 0 | 6 |
| February | 836 | 0 | 14 |
| March | 687 | 2 | 58 |
| April | 343 | 8 | 182 |
| May | 118 | 84 | 434 |
| June | 9 | 218 | 660 |
| July | 1 | 329 | 793 |
| August | 2 | 282 | 745 |
| September | 57 | 145 | 539 |
| October | 284 | 25 | 242 |
| November | 616 | 1 | 48 |
| December | 874 | 0 | 13 |
What this means
NOAA computes these from the daily lows at the station over 1991-2020, fitting the dates of each year's last and first freeze to a distribution, so a date can be stated at any level of risk. 36°F is a frost risk for tender plants on a clear, calm night, since the ground cools below the air above it; 32°F is a freeze; 28°F is a hard freeze that kills most annuals.
The station is 27.5 km from Nicholas County. Low ground, valleys and open fields freeze earlier and later than a town center or a hillside.
More
Sources
NOAA NCEI U.S. Climate Normals, 1991-2020, annual and seasonal normals for station USC00152903 (Flemingsburg 2 N). Public domain.