Waverly Frost Dates and Growing Season
Frost and the growing season
NOAA's 1991-2020 freeze probabilities for Melvern Lake. A median date has an even chance of a later freeze in spring, or an earlier one in fall.
The last spring freeze typically comes around April 8 and the first fall freeze around October 30, a growing season of about 202 days.
- Median at 36°F
- last April 19, first October 21
- Median at 32°F
- last April 8, first October 30
- Median at 28°F
- last March 31, first November 7
Last freeze in spring
The chance of a later freeze than the date shown. At 10 percent, one spring in ten still freezes after the date; planting after the 10 percent date for 32°F is the cautious choice.
| Threshold | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F | May 3 | Apr 30 | Apr 26 | Apr 23 | Apr 19 | Apr 16 | Apr 14 | Apr 10 | Apr 5 |
| 32°F | Apr 22 | Apr 17 | Apr 14 | Apr 11 | Apr 8 | Apr 5 | Apr 2 | Mar 30 | Mar 24 |
| 28°F | Apr 13 | Apr 8 | Apr 5 | Apr 2 | Mar 31 | Mar 27 | Mar 22 | Mar 17 | Mar 11 |
| 24°F | Apr 4 | Mar 31 | Mar 26 | Mar 22 | Mar 19 | Mar 15 | Mar 11 | Mar 6 | Mar 1 |
| 20°F | Mar 28 | Mar 20 | Mar 16 | Mar 12 | Mar 8 | Mar 5 | Mar 2 | Feb 27 | Feb 20 |
| 16°F | Mar 17 | Mar 12 | Mar 8 | Mar 4 | Mar 1 | Feb 27 | Feb 22 | Feb 16 | Feb 8 |
First freeze in fall
The chance of an earlier freeze than the date shown. At 10 percent, one fall in ten freezes before the date.
| Threshold | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F | Oct 6 | Oct 12 | Oct 16 | Oct 19 | Oct 21 | Oct 23 | Oct 25 | Oct 28 | Nov 1 |
| 32°F | Oct 16 | Oct 21 | Oct 24 | Oct 27 | Oct 30 | Nov 1 | Nov 4 | Nov 8 | Nov 13 |
| 28°F | Oct 25 | Oct 31 | Nov 1 | Nov 4 | Nov 7 | Nov 11 | Nov 14 | Nov 18 | Nov 24 |
| 24°F | Nov 1 | Nov 6 | Nov 11 | Nov 14 | Nov 18 | Nov 21 | Nov 26 | Dec 1 | Dec 4 |
| 20°F | Nov 10 | Nov 16 | Nov 20 | Nov 25 | Nov 29 | Dec 1 | Dec 5 | Dec 9 | Dec 16 |
| 16°F | Nov 20 | Nov 27 | Dec 1 | Dec 4 | Dec 8 | Dec 11 | Dec 16 | Dec 21 | Dec 27 |
Growing season length
Days between the last spring and first fall freeze at each threshold, with the chance of a season at least that long.
| Threshold | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F | 201 | 195 | 191 | 187 | 183 | 179 | 175 | 170 | 162 |
| 32°F | 224 | 217 | 211 | 207 | 202 | 198 | 194 | 190 | 183 |
| 28°F | 245 | 238 | 232 | 227 | 223 | 218 | 214 | 208 | 201 |
| 24°F | 266 | 258 | 252 | 247 | 242 | 238 | 233 | 228 | 219 |
| 20°F | 289 | 278 | 272 | 267 | 262 | 258 | 254 | 248 | 240 |
| 16°F | 309 | 301 | 294 | 288 | 283 | 278 | 272 | 265 | 258 |
How often it gets that cold
The share of years with at least one night at or below each temperature.
- 36°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 32°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 28°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 24°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 20°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 16°F or colder
- 100% of years
Degree days
A degree day is one degree of the daily mean temperature beyond a base, for one day. Heating degree days count cold (the fuel a house burns), cooling degree days heat, growing degree days the warmth a crop needs; each crop has its own base.
- Heating degree days, base 65°F
- 4,785
- Cooling degree days, base 65°F
- 1,520
- Growing degree days, base 40°F
- 6,762
- Growing degree days, base 45°F
- 5,441
- Growing degree days, base 50°F
- 4,257
- Growing degree days, base 55°F
- 3,208
- Growing degree days, base 60°F
- 2,296
Growing degree days by month, base 50°F
Heating and cooling by month
| Month | Heating DD | Cooling DD | Growing DD 50 |
|---|---|---|---|
| January | 1,066 | 0 | 2 |
| February | 833 | 0 | 13 |
| March | 621 | 4 | 77 |
| April | 318 | 21 | 212 |
| May | 102 | 107 | 472 |
| June | 7 | 303 | 745 |
| July | 0 | 450 | 914 |
| August | 1 | 409 | 873 |
| September | 45 | 189 | 595 |
| October | 257 | 37 | 280 |
| November | 594 | 1 | 66 |
| December | 941 | 0 | 7 |
What this means
NOAA computes these from the daily lows at the station over 1991-2020, fitting the dates of each year's last and first freeze to a distribution, so a date can be stated at any level of risk. 36°F is a frost risk for tender plants on a clear, calm night, since the ground cools below the air above it; 32°F is a freeze; 28°F is a hard freeze that kills most annuals.
The station is 15 km from Waverly. Low ground, valleys and open fields freeze earlier and later than a town center or a hillside.
More
Sources
NOAA NCEI U.S. Climate Normals, 1991-2020, annual and seasonal normals for station USC00145210 (Melvern Lake). Public domain.