Blue Grass Frost Dates and Growing Season
Frost and the growing season
NOAA's 1991-2020 freeze probabilities for Rock Island L&d 15. A median date has an even chance of a later freeze in spring, or an earlier one in fall.
The last spring freeze typically comes around April 19 and the first fall freeze around October 22, a growing season of about 184 days.
- Median at 36°F
- last April 30, first October 12
- Median at 32°F
- last April 19, first October 22
- Median at 28°F
- last April 8, first October 31
Last freeze in spring
The chance of a later freeze than the date shown. At 10 percent, one spring in ten still freezes after the date; planting after the 10 percent date for 32°F is the cautious choice.
| Threshold | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F | May 14 | May 9 | May 5 | May 2 | Apr 30 | Apr 27 | Apr 24 | Apr 21 | Apr 16 |
| 32°F | May 4 | Apr 29 | Apr 24 | Apr 21 | Apr 19 | Apr 16 | Apr 13 | Apr 10 | Apr 6 |
| 28°F | Apr 23 | Apr 18 | Apr 14 | Apr 11 | Apr 8 | Apr 6 | Apr 3 | Mar 31 | Mar 25 |
| 24°F | Apr 14 | Apr 9 | Apr 5 | Apr 3 | Mar 31 | Mar 29 | Mar 25 | Mar 20 | Mar 15 |
| 20°F | Apr 5 | Apr 1 | Mar 28 | Mar 25 | Mar 22 | Mar 18 | Mar 14 | Mar 11 | Mar 5 |
| 16°F | Mar 27 | Mar 22 | Mar 18 | Mar 15 | Mar 12 | Mar 9 | Mar 6 | Mar 3 | Feb 26 |
First freeze in fall
The chance of an earlier freeze than the date shown. At 10 percent, one fall in ten freezes before the date.
| Threshold | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F | Sep 29 | Oct 3 | Oct 6 | Oct 10 | Oct 12 | Oct 15 | Oct 18 | Oct 20 | Oct 24 |
| 32°F | Oct 7 | Oct 13 | Oct 17 | Oct 19 | Oct 22 | Oct 24 | Oct 27 | Oct 30 | Nov 2 |
| 28°F | Oct 18 | Oct 23 | Oct 26 | Oct 29 | Oct 31 | Nov 2 | Nov 5 | Nov 9 | Nov 14 |
| 24°F | Oct 28 | Nov 1 | Nov 3 | Nov 6 | Nov 9 | Nov 12 | Nov 15 | Nov 18 | Nov 24 |
| 20°F | Nov 4 | Nov 8 | Nov 12 | Nov 15 | Nov 19 | Nov 22 | Nov 25 | Nov 29 | Dec 4 |
| 16°F | Nov 11 | Nov 16 | Nov 21 | Nov 25 | Nov 27 | Nov 30 | Dec 2 | Dec 7 | Dec 13 |
Growing season length
Days between the last spring and first fall freeze at each threshold, with the chance of a season at least that long.
| Threshold | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F | 183 | 177 | 172 | 168 | 164 | 160 | 156 | 151 | 144 |
| 32°F | 203 | 197 | 191 | 188 | 184 | 181 | 177 | 172 | 164 |
| 28°F | 223 | 216 | 212 | 208 | 204 | 200 | 196 | 191 | 184 |
| 24°F | 243 | 236 | 231 | 227 | 222 | 219 | 214 | 209 | 202 |
| 20°F | 264 | 255 | 250 | 246 | 242 | 238 | 233 | 227 | 220 |
| 16°F | 281 | 274 | 268 | 264 | 260 | 255 | 250 | 245 | 239 |
How often it gets that cold
The share of years with at least one night at or below each temperature.
- 36°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 32°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 28°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 24°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 20°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 16°F or colder
- 100% of years
Degree days
A degree day is one degree of the daily mean temperature beyond a base, for one day. Heating degree days count cold (the fuel a house burns), cooling degree days heat, growing degree days the warmth a crop needs; each crop has its own base.
- Heating degree days, base 65°F
- 6,241
- Cooling degree days, base 65°F
- 935
- Growing degree days, base 40°F
- 5,473
- Growing degree days, base 45°F
- 4,326
- Growing degree days, base 50°F
- 3,293
- Growing degree days, base 55°F
- 2,382
- Growing degree days, base 60°F
- 1,593
Growing degree days by month, base 50°F
Heating and cooling by month
| Month | Heating DD | Cooling DD | Growing DD 50 |
|---|---|---|---|
| January | 1,327 | 0 | 0 |
| February | 1,061 | 0 | 2 |
| March | 832 | 1 | 28 |
| April | 447 | 7 | 120 |
| May | 169 | 62 | 367 |
| June | 20 | 203 | 633 |
| July | 2 | 293 | 756 |
| August | 6 | 246 | 705 |
| September | 83 | 108 | 478 |
| October | 377 | 15 | 176 |
| November | 767 | 0 | 27 |
| December | 1,152 | 0 | 2 |
What this means
NOAA computes these from the daily lows at the station over 1991-2020, fitting the dates of each year's last and first freeze to a distribution, so a date can be stated at any level of risk. 36°F is a frost risk for tender plants on a clear, calm night, since the ground cools below the air above it; 32°F is a freeze; 28°F is a hard freeze that kills most annuals.
The station is 16.8 km from Blue Grass. Low ground, valleys and open fields freeze earlier and later than a town center or a hillside.
More
Sources
NOAA NCEI U.S. Climate Normals, 1991-2020, annual and seasonal normals for station USC00117391 (Rock Island L&d 15). Public domain.