Adair Frost Dates and Growing Season
Frost and the growing season
NOAA's 1991-2020 freeze probabilities for Guthrie Ctr. A median date has an even chance of a later freeze in spring, or an earlier one in fall.
The last spring freeze typically comes around May 2 and the first fall freeze around October 3, a growing season of about 153 days.
- Median at 36°F
- last May 12, first September 25
- Median at 32°F
- last May 2, first October 3
- Median at 28°F
- last April 23, first October 15
Last freeze in spring
The chance of a later freeze than the date shown. At 10 percent, one spring in ten still freezes after the date; planting after the 10 percent date for 32°F is the cautious choice.
| Threshold | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F | May 26 | May 22 | May 18 | May 15 | May 12 | May 9 | May 7 | May 4 | Apr 30 |
| 32°F | May 17 | May 11 | May 8 | May 5 | May 2 | Apr 30 | Apr 26 | Apr 22 | Apr 18 |
| 28°F | May 8 | May 3 | Apr 29 | Apr 26 | Apr 23 | Apr 19 | Apr 16 | Apr 13 | Apr 8 |
| 24°F | Apr 27 | Apr 22 | Apr 18 | Apr 14 | Apr 11 | Apr 8 | Apr 5 | Apr 2 | Mar 28 |
| 20°F | Apr 18 | Apr 10 | Apr 6 | Apr 4 | Apr 1 | Mar 30 | Mar 26 | Mar 22 | Mar 15 |
| 16°F | Apr 6 | Apr 2 | Mar 30 | Mar 27 | Mar 23 | Mar 19 | Mar 16 | Mar 12 | Mar 6 |
First freeze in fall
The chance of an earlier freeze than the date shown. At 10 percent, one fall in ten freezes before the date.
| Threshold | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F | Sep 12 | Sep 16 | Sep 19 | Sep 22 | Sep 25 | Sep 28 | Oct 1 | Oct 3 | Oct 7 |
| 32°F | Sep 20 | Sep 25 | Sep 28 | Oct 1 | Oct 3 | Oct 5 | Oct 10 | Oct 13 | Oct 18 |
| 28°F | Sep 30 | Oct 4 | Oct 8 | Oct 12 | Oct 15 | Oct 17 | Oct 20 | Oct 23 | Oct 28 |
| 24°F | Oct 11 | Oct 16 | Oct 20 | Oct 22 | Oct 25 | Oct 27 | Oct 30 | Nov 1 | Nov 6 |
| 20°F | Oct 21 | Oct 25 | Oct 29 | Nov 1 | Nov 2 | Nov 4 | Nov 7 | Nov 11 | Nov 16 |
| 16°F | Oct 29 | Nov 2 | Nov 5 | Nov 8 | Nov 11 | Nov 14 | Nov 17 | Nov 22 | Nov 29 |
Growing season length
Days between the last spring and first fall freeze at each threshold, with the chance of a season at least that long.
| Threshold | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F | 152 | 146 | 143 | 138 | 134 | 131 | 127 | 123 | 118 |
| 32°F | 172 | 166 | 161 | 158 | 153 | 149 | 145 | 139 | 133 |
| 28°F | 194 | 187 | 182 | 177 | 173 | 169 | 164 | 158 | 152 |
| 24°F | 215 | 209 | 203 | 199 | 195 | 191 | 187 | 182 | 175 |
| 20°F | 237 | 228 | 223 | 218 | 214 | 210 | 206 | 200 | 192 |
| 16°F | 255 | 248 | 242 | 238 | 233 | 228 | 223 | 217 | 211 |
How often it gets that cold
The share of years with at least one night at or below each temperature.
- 36°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 32°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 28°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 24°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 20°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 16°F or colder
- 100% of years
Degree days
A degree day is one degree of the daily mean temperature beyond a base, for one day. Heating degree days count cold (the fuel a house burns), cooling degree days heat, growing degree days the warmth a crop needs; each crop has its own base.
- Heating degree days, base 65°F
- 6,849
- Cooling degree days, base 65°F
- 843
- Growing degree days, base 40°F
- 5,121
- Growing degree days, base 45°F
- 4,024
- Growing degree days, base 50°F
- 3,044
- Growing degree days, base 55°F
- 2,184
- Growing degree days, base 60°F
- 1,449
Growing degree days by month, base 50°F
Heating and cooling by month
| Month | Heating DD | Cooling DD | Growing DD 50 |
|---|---|---|---|
| January | 1,406 | 0 | 0 |
| February | 1,142 | 0 | 1 |
| March | 885 | 1 | 23 |
| April | 497 | 7 | 106 |
| May | 206 | 54 | 331 |
| June | 28 | 189 | 611 |
| July | 6 | 286 | 745 |
| August | 16 | 210 | 659 |
| September | 131 | 86 | 412 |
| October | 456 | 11 | 137 |
| November | 845 | 0 | 19 |
| December | 1,232 | 0 | 0 |
What this means
NOAA computes these from the daily lows at the station over 1991-2020, fitting the dates of each year's last and first freeze to a distribution, so a date can be stated at any level of risk. 36°F is a frost risk for tender plants on a clear, calm night, since the ground cools below the air above it; 32°F is a freeze; 28°F is a hard freeze that kills most annuals.
The station is 22.3 km from Adair. Low ground, valleys and open fields freeze earlier and later than a town center or a hillside.
More
Sources
NOAA NCEI U.S. Climate Normals, 1991-2020, annual and seasonal normals for station USC00133509 (Guthrie Ctr). Public domain.