Otis Frost Dates and Growing Season
Frost and the growing season
NOAA's 1991-2020 freeze probabilities for Valparaiso Wtr Wks. A median date has an even chance of a later freeze in spring, or an earlier one in fall.
The last spring freeze typically comes around April 22 and the first fall freeze around October 25, a growing season of about 185 days.
- Median at 36°F
- last May 4, first October 13
- Median at 32°F
- last April 22, first October 25
- Median at 28°F
- last April 9, first November 5
Last freeze in spring
The chance of a later freeze than the date shown. At 10 percent, one spring in ten still freezes after the date; planting after the 10 percent date for 32°F is the cautious choice.
| Threshold | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F | May 22 | May 16 | May 10 | May 7 | May 4 | May 1 | Apr 28 | Apr 25 | Apr 20 |
| 32°F | May 6 | May 1 | Apr 28 | Apr 24 | Apr 22 | Apr 18 | Apr 15 | Apr 12 | Apr 7 |
| 28°F | Apr 24 | Apr 19 | Apr 16 | Apr 12 | Apr 9 | Apr 6 | Apr 3 | Mar 31 | Mar 25 |
| 24°F | Apr 12 | Apr 7 | Apr 3 | Apr 1 | Mar 30 | Mar 27 | Mar 23 | Mar 19 | Mar 12 |
| 20°F | Apr 2 | Mar 29 | Mar 26 | Mar 22 | Mar 19 | Mar 16 | Mar 12 | Mar 7 | Mar 1 |
| 16°F | Mar 26 | Mar 20 | Mar 16 | Mar 13 | Mar 9 | Mar 6 | Mar 2 | Feb 26 | Feb 18 |
First freeze in fall
The chance of an earlier freeze than the date shown. At 10 percent, one fall in ten freezes before the date.
| Threshold | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F | Sep 30 | Oct 4 | Oct 7 | Oct 10 | Oct 13 | Oct 16 | Oct 19 | Oct 23 | Oct 26 |
| 32°F | Oct 12 | Oct 17 | Oct 20 | Oct 23 | Oct 25 | Oct 27 | Oct 30 | Nov 1 | Nov 6 |
| 28°F | Oct 24 | Oct 29 | Nov 1 | Nov 3 | Nov 5 | Nov 7 | Nov 11 | Nov 15 | Nov 21 |
| 24°F | Nov 3 | Nov 6 | Nov 10 | Nov 13 | Nov 17 | Nov 20 | Nov 23 | Nov 27 | Dec 2 |
| 20°F | Nov 9 | Nov 15 | Nov 19 | Nov 23 | Nov 26 | Nov 30 | Dec 2 | Dec 6 | Dec 13 |
| 16°F | Nov 18 | Nov 25 | Nov 29 | Dec 1 | Dec 4 | Dec 8 | Dec 13 | Dec 18 | Dec 23 |
Growing season length
Days between the last spring and first fall freeze at each threshold, with the chance of a season at least that long.
| Threshold | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F | 180 | 174 | 169 | 165 | 160 | 156 | 151 | 146 | 139 |
| 32°F | 205 | 198 | 193 | 189 | 185 | 181 | 176 | 170 | 163 |
| 28°F | 231 | 223 | 218 | 214 | 210 | 206 | 202 | 197 | 189 |
| 24°F | 257 | 247 | 242 | 238 | 234 | 229 | 225 | 219 | 212 |
| 20°F | 278 | 268 | 263 | 259 | 253 | 248 | 242 | 237 | 230 |
| 16°F | 295 | 287 | 282 | 277 | 272 | 267 | 261 | 256 | 247 |
How often it gets that cold
The share of years with at least one night at or below each temperature.
- 36°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 32°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 28°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 24°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 20°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 16°F or colder
- 100% of years
Degree days
A degree day is one degree of the daily mean temperature beyond a base, for one day. Heating degree days count cold (the fuel a house burns), cooling degree days heat, growing degree days the warmth a crop needs; each crop has its own base.
- Heating degree days, base 65°F
- 6,038
- Cooling degree days, base 65°F
- 778
- Growing degree days, base 40°F
- 5,287
- Growing degree days, base 45°F
- 4,121
- Growing degree days, base 50°F
- 3,084
- Growing degree days, base 55°F
- 2,172
- Growing degree days, base 60°F
- 1,398
Growing degree days by month, base 50°F
Heating and cooling by month
| Month | Heating DD | Cooling DD | Growing DD 50 |
|---|---|---|---|
| January | 1,244 | 0 | 1 |
| February | 1,011 | 0 | 2 |
| March | 826 | 0 | 25 |
| April | 462 | 9 | 115 |
| May | 197 | 50 | 330 |
| June | 40 | 163 | 573 |
| July | 4 | 252 | 713 |
| August | 10 | 207 | 662 |
| September | 94 | 87 | 444 |
| October | 358 | 11 | 182 |
| November | 711 | 0 | 34 |
| December | 1,080 | 0 | 3 |
What this means
NOAA computes these from the daily lows at the station over 1991-2020, fitting the dates of each year's last and first freeze to a distribution, so a date can be stated at any level of risk. 36°F is a frost risk for tender plants on a clear, calm night, since the ground cools below the air above it; 32°F is a freeze; 28°F is a hard freeze that kills most annuals.
The station is 14.7 km from Otis. Low ground, valleys and open fields freeze earlier and later than a town center or a hillside.
More
Sources
NOAA NCEI U.S. Climate Normals, 1991-2020, annual and seasonal normals for station USC00128999 (Valparaiso Wtr Wks). Public domain.