Orange County Frost Dates and Growing Season
Frost and the growing season
NOAA's 1991-2020 freeze probabilities for Paoli. A median date has an even chance of a later freeze in spring, or an earlier one in fall.
The last spring freeze typically comes around April 21 and the first fall freeze around October 18, a growing season of about 178 days.
- Median at 36°F
- last May 1, first October 9
- Median at 32°F
- last April 21, first October 18
- Median at 28°F
- last April 8, first October 29
Last freeze in spring
The chance of a later freeze than the date shown. At 10 percent, one spring in ten still freezes after the date; planting after the 10 percent date for 32°F is the cautious choice.
| Threshold | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F | May 17 | May 11 | May 7 | May 4 | May 1 | Apr 29 | Apr 25 | Apr 21 | Apr 17 |
| 32°F | May 7 | May 2 | Apr 29 | Apr 25 | Apr 21 | Apr 18 | Apr 15 | Apr 11 | Apr 6 |
| 28°F | Apr 25 | Apr 19 | Apr 14 | Apr 11 | Apr 8 | Apr 5 | Apr 2 | Mar 30 | Mar 23 |
| 24°F | Apr 13 | Apr 6 | Apr 2 | Mar 31 | Mar 28 | Mar 24 | Mar 20 | Mar 16 | Mar 9 |
| 20°F | Mar 31 | Mar 27 | Mar 22 | Mar 19 | Mar 16 | Mar 12 | Mar 9 | Mar 4 | Feb 27 |
| 16°F | Mar 22 | Mar 17 | Mar 12 | Mar 9 | Mar 5 | Mar 1 | Feb 26 | Feb 19 | Feb 12 |
First freeze in fall
The chance of an earlier freeze than the date shown. At 10 percent, one fall in ten freezes before the date.
| Threshold | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F | Sep 28 | Oct 1 | Oct 4 | Oct 7 | Oct 9 | Oct 12 | Oct 14 | Oct 17 | Oct 21 |
| 32°F | Oct 6 | Oct 10 | Oct 13 | Oct 16 | Oct 18 | Oct 21 | Oct 23 | Oct 25 | Oct 29 |
| 28°F | Oct 15 | Oct 21 | Oct 23 | Oct 26 | Oct 29 | Oct 31 | Nov 2 | Nov 5 | Nov 11 |
| 24°F | Oct 25 | Oct 31 | Nov 2 | Nov 4 | Nov 7 | Nov 10 | Nov 14 | Nov 18 | Nov 26 |
| 20°F | Nov 5 | Nov 9 | Nov 13 | Nov 17 | Nov 21 | Nov 24 | Nov 29 | Dec 2 | Dec 9 |
| 16°F | Nov 14 | Nov 20 | Nov 24 | Nov 28 | Dec 1 | Dec 5 | Dec 10 | Dec 16 | Dec 24 |
Growing season length
Days between the last spring and first fall freeze at each threshold, with the chance of a season at least that long.
| Threshold | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F | 177 | 172 | 167 | 164 | 160 | 156 | 152 | 148 | 142 |
| 32°F | 198 | 191 | 187 | 182 | 178 | 174 | 170 | 164 | 158 |
| 28°F | 221 | 214 | 210 | 206 | 201 | 198 | 193 | 189 | 181 |
| 24°F | 249 | 243 | 236 | 231 | 226 | 221 | 215 | 211 | 204 |
| 20°F | 277 | 267 | 260 | 255 | 249 | 244 | 239 | 234 | 226 |
| 16°F | 300 | 291 | 285 | 279 | 274 | 268 | 262 | 256 | 246 |
How often it gets that cold
The share of years with at least one night at or below each temperature.
- 36°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 32°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 28°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 24°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 20°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 16°F or colder
- 100% of years
Degree days
A degree day is one degree of the daily mean temperature beyond a base, for one day. Heating degree days count cold (the fuel a house burns), cooling degree days heat, growing degree days the warmth a crop needs; each crop has its own base.
- Heating degree days, base 65°F
- 5,049
- Cooling degree days, base 65°F
- 1,089
- Growing degree days, base 40°F
- 6,106
- Growing degree days, base 45°F
- 4,820
- Growing degree days, base 50°F
- 3,677
- Growing degree days, base 55°F
- 2,675
- Growing degree days, base 60°F
- 1,812
Growing degree days by month, base 50°F
Heating and cooling by month
| Month | Heating DD | Cooling DD | Growing DD 50 |
|---|---|---|---|
| January | 1,060 | 0 | 7 |
| February | 858 | 0 | 10 |
| March | 681 | 2 | 55 |
| April | 349 | 16 | 187 |
| May | 121 | 90 | 438 |
| June | 14 | 230 | 666 |
| July | 1 | 328 | 792 |
| August | 3 | 285 | 747 |
| September | 67 | 121 | 505 |
| October | 321 | 17 | 209 |
| November | 639 | 1 | 51 |
| December | 936 | 0 | 11 |
What this means
NOAA computes these from the daily lows at the station over 1991-2020, fitting the dates of each year's last and first freeze to a distribution, so a date can be stated at any level of risk. 36°F is a frost risk for tender plants on a clear, calm night, since the ground cools below the air above it; 32°F is a freeze; 28°F is a hard freeze that kills most annuals.
The station is 1.7 km from Orange County. Low ground, valleys and open fields freeze earlier and later than a town center or a hillside.
More
Sources
NOAA NCEI U.S. Climate Normals, 1991-2020, annual and seasonal normals for station USC00126705 (Paoli). Public domain.