Paxton Frost Dates and Growing Season
Frost and the growing season
NOAA's 1991-2020 freeze probabilities for Paxton 2 Wsw. A median date has an even chance of a later freeze in spring, or an earlier one in fall.
The last spring freeze typically comes around April 23 and the first fall freeze around October 12, a growing season of about 170 days.
- Median at 36°F
- last May 3, first October 3
- Median at 32°F
- last April 23, first October 12
- Median at 28°F
- last April 13, first October 24
Last freeze in spring
The chance of a later freeze than the date shown. At 10 percent, one spring in ten still freezes after the date; planting after the 10 percent date for 32°F is the cautious choice.
| Threshold | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F | May 19 | May 14 | May 9 | May 5 | May 3 | Apr 30 | Apr 28 | Apr 24 | Apr 20 |
| 32°F | May 9 | May 3 | Apr 30 | Apr 26 | Apr 23 | Apr 21 | Apr 18 | Apr 14 | Apr 9 |
| 28°F | Apr 29 | Apr 23 | Apr 19 | Apr 16 | Apr 13 | Apr 10 | Apr 6 | Apr 3 | Mar 30 |
| 24°F | Apr 18 | Apr 12 | Apr 8 | Apr 4 | Apr 2 | Mar 31 | Mar 27 | Mar 22 | Mar 16 |
| 20°F | Apr 7 | Apr 2 | Mar 30 | Mar 26 | Mar 22 | Mar 18 | Mar 14 | Mar 11 | Mar 6 |
| 16°F | Mar 30 | Mar 24 | Mar 18 | Mar 15 | Mar 12 | Mar 9 | Mar 6 | Mar 2 | Feb 25 |
First freeze in fall
The chance of an earlier freeze than the date shown. At 10 percent, one fall in ten freezes before the date.
| Threshold | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F | Sep 19 | Sep 24 | Sep 27 | Sep 30 | Oct 3 | Oct 5 | Oct 8 | Oct 11 | Oct 16 |
| 32°F | Sep 26 | Oct 1 | Oct 5 | Oct 9 | Oct 12 | Oct 16 | Oct 19 | Oct 22 | Oct 26 |
| 28°F | Oct 7 | Oct 13 | Oct 18 | Oct 21 | Oct 24 | Oct 26 | Oct 29 | Nov 1 | Nov 6 |
| 24°F | Oct 22 | Oct 27 | Oct 31 | Nov 1 | Nov 4 | Nov 6 | Nov 9 | Nov 13 | Nov 21 |
| 20°F | Nov 1 | Nov 5 | Nov 8 | Nov 12 | Nov 16 | Nov 20 | Nov 24 | Nov 28 | Dec 4 |
| 16°F | Nov 8 | Nov 14 | Nov 18 | Nov 22 | Nov 26 | Nov 30 | Dec 2 | Dec 8 | Dec 14 |
Growing season length
Days between the last spring and first fall freeze at each threshold, with the chance of a season at least that long.
| Threshold | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F | 170 | 164 | 159 | 155 | 152 | 148 | 143 | 138 | 130 |
| 32°F | 190 | 184 | 179 | 175 | 170 | 167 | 162 | 157 | 149 |
| 28°F | 213 | 206 | 201 | 196 | 192 | 188 | 183 | 177 | 168 |
| 24°F | 241 | 231 | 225 | 220 | 215 | 211 | 207 | 201 | 193 |
| 20°F | 265 | 256 | 250 | 244 | 240 | 234 | 229 | 224 | 216 |
| 16°F | 284 | 275 | 270 | 265 | 260 | 254 | 249 | 243 | 234 |
How often it gets that cold
The share of years with at least one night at or below each temperature.
- 36°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 32°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 28°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 24°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 20°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 16°F or colder
- 100% of years
Degree days
A degree day is one degree of the daily mean temperature beyond a base, for one day. Heating degree days count cold (the fuel a house burns), cooling degree days heat, growing degree days the warmth a crop needs; each crop has its own base.
- Heating degree days, base 65°F
- 6,112
- Cooling degree days, base 65°F
- 874
- Growing degree days, base 40°F
- 5,427
- Growing degree days, base 45°F
- 4,267
- Growing degree days, base 50°F
- 3,232
- Growing degree days, base 55°F
- 2,314
- Growing degree days, base 60°F
- 1,526
Growing degree days by month, base 50°F
Heating and cooling by month
| Month | Heating DD | Cooling DD | Growing DD 50 |
|---|---|---|---|
| January | 1,278 | 0 | 0 |
| February | 1,036 | 0 | 3 |
| March | 819 | 1 | 33 |
| April | 445 | 7 | 126 |
| May | 165 | 75 | 385 |
| June | 26 | 202 | 626 |
| July | 5 | 260 | 721 |
| August | 10 | 210 | 665 |
| September | 92 | 105 | 467 |
| October | 382 | 15 | 174 |
| November | 747 | 0 | 30 |
| December | 1,107 | 0 | 3 |
What this means
NOAA computes these from the daily lows at the station over 1991-2020, fitting the dates of each year's last and first freeze to a distribution, so a date can be stated at any level of risk. 36°F is a frost risk for tender plants on a clear, calm night, since the ground cools below the air above it; 32°F is a freeze; 28°F is a hard freeze that kills most annuals.
The station is 4 km from Paxton. Low ground, valleys and open fields freeze earlier and later than a town center or a hillside.
More
Sources
NOAA NCEI U.S. Climate Normals, 1991-2020, annual and seasonal normals for station USC00116663 (Paxton 2 Wsw). Public domain.