Mount Carmel climate

Mount Carmel Frost Dates and Growing Season

NOAA 1991-2020 normals for Mt Carmel, 0.3 km from Mount Carmel, elevation 430 ft

Frost and the growing season

NOAA's 1991-2020 freeze probabilities for Mt Carmel. A median date has an even chance of a later freeze in spring, or an earlier one in fall.

The last spring freeze typically comes around April 2 and the first fall freeze around October 31, a growing season of about 209 days.

Median at 36°F
last April 14, first October 21
Median at 32°F
last April 2, first October 31
Median at 28°F
last March 22, first November 11

Last freeze in spring

The chance of a later freeze than the date shown. At 10 percent, one spring in ten still freezes after the date; planting after the 10 percent date for 32°F is the cautious choice.

Threshold10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
36°FApr 30Apr 25Apr 21Apr 18Apr 14Apr 11Apr 8Apr 5Apr 2
32°FApr 17Apr 11Apr 7Apr 4Apr 2Mar 31Mar 29Mar 24Mar 19
28°FApr 5Apr 1Mar 29Mar 26Mar 22Mar 19Mar 16Mar 13Mar 8
24°FMar 27Mar 22Mar 19Mar 16Mar 13Mar 9Mar 6Mar 1Feb 24
20°FMar 18Mar 14Mar 10Mar 6Mar 3Feb 28Feb 24Feb 18Feb 9
16°FMar 11Mar 6Mar 2Feb 27Feb 23Feb 15Feb 10Feb 5Jan 28

First freeze in fall

The chance of an earlier freeze than the date shown. At 10 percent, one fall in ten freezes before the date.

Threshold10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
36°FOct 8Oct 13Oct 16Oct 19Oct 21Oct 23Oct 26Oct 29Nov 1
32°FOct 18Oct 23Oct 26Oct 29Oct 31Nov 2Nov 5Nov 8Nov 14
28°FOct 30Nov 1Nov 5Nov 8Nov 11Nov 13Nov 16Nov 21Nov 26
24°FNov 6Nov 12Nov 15Nov 19Nov 22Nov 26Nov 29Dec 2Dec 8
20°FNov 16Nov 21Nov 26Nov 29Dec 1Dec 6Dec 9Dec 16Dec 22
16°FNov 24Nov 30Dec 4Dec 9Dec 15Dec 20Dec 24Dec 30Jan 8

Growing season length

Days between the last spring and first fall freeze at each threshold, with the chance of a season at least that long.

Threshold10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
36°F206199195190186183179174167
32°F231224218213209205201195189
28°F255247242237233229224219211
24°F280269263258254250245239231
20°F300291285278274269263257249
16°F327314306301296289282276267

How often it gets that cold

The share of years with at least one night at or below each temperature.

36°F or colder
100% of years
32°F or colder
100% of years
28°F or colder
100% of years
24°F or colder
100% of years
20°F or colder
100% of years
16°F or colder
100% of years

Degree days

A degree day is one degree of the daily mean temperature beyond a base, for one day. Heating degree days count cold (the fuel a house burns), cooling degree days heat, growing degree days the warmth a crop needs; each crop has its own base.

Heating degree days, base 65°F
4,541
Cooling degree days, base 65°F
1,459
Growing degree days, base 40°F
6,795
Growing degree days, base 45°F
5,459
Growing degree days, base 50°F
4,258
Growing degree days, base 55°F
3,189
Growing degree days, base 60°F
2,255

Growing degree days by month, base 50°F

Heating and cooling by month

MonthHeating DDCooling DDGrowing DD 50
January1,00406
February805011
March612372
April27727243
May77128517
June6315759
July0409874
August2358821
September36184599
October24833276
November578270
December896011

What this means

NOAA computes these from the daily lows at the station over 1991-2020, fitting the dates of each year's last and first freeze to a distribution, so a date can be stated at any level of risk. 36°F is a frost risk for tender plants on a clear, calm night, since the ground cools below the air above it; 32°F is a freeze; 28°F is a hard freeze that kills most annuals.

The station is 0.3 km from Mount Carmel. Low ground, valleys and open fields freeze earlier and later than a town center or a hillside.

More

Sources

NOAA NCEI U.S. Climate Normals, 1991-2020, annual and seasonal normals for station USC00115888 (Mt Carmel). Public domain.