Bluffs Frost Dates and Growing Season
Frost and the growing season
NOAA's 1991-2020 freeze probabilities for Winchester. A median date has an even chance of a later freeze in spring, or an earlier one in fall.
The last spring freeze typically comes around April 18 and the first fall freeze around October 20, a growing season of about 183 days.
- Median at 36°F
- last April 30, first October 8
- Median at 32°F
- last April 18, first October 20
- Median at 28°F
- last April 5, first October 29
Last freeze in spring
The chance of a later freeze than the date shown. At 10 percent, one spring in ten still freezes after the date; planting after the 10 percent date for 32°F is the cautious choice.
| Threshold | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F | May 15 | May 9 | May 5 | May 2 | Apr 30 | Apr 26 | Apr 22 | Apr 19 | Apr 14 |
| 32°F | May 5 | Apr 29 | Apr 24 | Apr 21 | Apr 18 | Apr 14 | Apr 11 | Apr 8 | Apr 3 |
| 28°F | Apr 22 | Apr 15 | Apr 11 | Apr 8 | Apr 5 | Apr 2 | Mar 31 | Mar 27 | Mar 20 |
| 24°F | Apr 9 | Apr 4 | Apr 1 | Mar 29 | Mar 26 | Mar 23 | Mar 19 | Mar 14 | Mar 9 |
| 20°F | Apr 1 | Mar 27 | Mar 23 | Mar 19 | Mar 16 | Mar 13 | Mar 9 | Mar 5 | Feb 28 |
| 16°F | Mar 24 | Mar 18 | Mar 15 | Mar 11 | Mar 7 | Mar 4 | Mar 1 | Feb 25 | Feb 17 |
First freeze in fall
The chance of an earlier freeze than the date shown. At 10 percent, one fall in ten freezes before the date.
| Threshold | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F | Sep 24 | Sep 29 | Oct 2 | Oct 6 | Oct 8 | Oct 11 | Oct 14 | Oct 17 | Oct 21 |
| 32°F | Oct 5 | Oct 10 | Oct 14 | Oct 17 | Oct 20 | Oct 22 | Oct 24 | Oct 27 | Oct 31 |
| 28°F | Oct 16 | Oct 21 | Oct 24 | Oct 27 | Oct 29 | Nov 1 | Nov 3 | Nov 7 | Nov 12 |
| 24°F | Oct 29 | Nov 1 | Nov 3 | Nov 6 | Nov 9 | Nov 12 | Nov 15 | Nov 19 | Nov 25 |
| 20°F | Nov 6 | Nov 9 | Nov 12 | Nov 16 | Nov 20 | Nov 24 | Nov 28 | Dec 1 | Dec 7 |
| 16°F | Nov 12 | Nov 19 | Nov 23 | Nov 27 | Dec 1 | Dec 3 | Dec 7 | Dec 12 | Dec 19 |
Growing season length
Days between the last spring and first fall freeze at each threshold, with the chance of a season at least that long.
| Threshold | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F | 180 | 175 | 169 | 166 | 161 | 157 | 153 | 148 | 141 |
| 32°F | 202 | 197 | 192 | 186 | 183 | 179 | 174 | 168 | 160 |
| 28°F | 225 | 217 | 213 | 210 | 206 | 202 | 198 | 193 | 184 |
| 24°F | 250 | 242 | 237 | 233 | 228 | 224 | 219 | 215 | 208 |
| 20°F | 273 | 264 | 259 | 255 | 250 | 246 | 241 | 236 | 229 |
| 16°F | 293 | 284 | 278 | 271 | 267 | 262 | 258 | 252 | 245 |
How often it gets that cold
The share of years with at least one night at or below each temperature.
- 36°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 32°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 28°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 24°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 20°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 16°F or colder
- 100% of years
Degree days
A degree day is one degree of the daily mean temperature beyond a base, for one day. Heating degree days count cold (the fuel a house burns), cooling degree days heat, growing degree days the warmth a crop needs; each crop has its own base.
- Heating degree days, base 65°F
- 5,485
- Cooling degree days, base 65°F
- 1,130
- Growing degree days, base 40°F
- 5,992
- Growing degree days, base 45°F
- 4,765
- Growing degree days, base 50°F
- 3,673
- Growing degree days, base 55°F
- 2,695
- Growing degree days, base 60°F
- 1,843
Growing degree days by month, base 50°F
Heating and cooling by month
| Month | Heating DD | Cooling DD | Growing DD 50 |
|---|---|---|---|
| January | 1,185 | 0 | 2 |
| February | 946 | 0 | 6 |
| March | 731 | 3 | 53 |
| April | 371 | 13 | 171 |
| May | 132 | 85 | 424 |
| June | 14 | 245 | 681 |
| July | 1 | 341 | 804 |
| August | 4 | 296 | 758 |
| September | 68 | 126 | 510 |
| October | 328 | 22 | 215 |
| November | 686 | 1 | 42 |
| December | 1,020 | 0 | 6 |
What this means
NOAA computes these from the daily lows at the station over 1991-2020, fitting the dates of each year's last and first freeze to a distribution, so a date can be stated at any level of risk. 36°F is a frost risk for tender plants on a clear, calm night, since the ground cools below the air above it; 32°F is a freeze; 28°F is a hard freeze that kills most annuals.
The station is 14.8 km from Bluffs. Low ground, valleys and open fields freeze earlier and later than a town center or a hillside.
More
Sources
NOAA NCEI U.S. Climate Normals, 1991-2020, annual and seasonal normals for station USC00119331 (Winchester). Public domain.