Athol Frost Dates and Growing Season
Frost and the growing season
NOAA's 1991-2020 freeze probabilities for Bayview Model Basin. A median date has an even chance of a later freeze in spring, or an earlier one in fall.
The last spring freeze typically comes around May 22 and the first fall freeze around September 22, a growing season of about 122 days.
- Median at 36°F
- last June 7, first September 6
- Median at 32°F
- last May 22, first September 22
- Median at 28°F
- last May 4, first October 4
Last freeze in spring
The chance of a later freeze than the date shown. At 10 percent, one spring in ten still freezes after the date; planting after the 10 percent date for 32°F is the cautious choice.
| Threshold | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F | Jul 1 | Jun 21 | Jun 15 | Jun 10 | Jun 7 | Jun 4 | Jun 1 | May 29 | May 22 |
| 32°F | Jun 6 | May 31 | May 28 | May 25 | May 22 | May 18 | May 14 | May 10 | May 5 |
| 28°F | May 23 | May 16 | May 12 | May 8 | May 4 | Apr 30 | Apr 26 | Apr 21 | Apr 12 |
| 24°F | May 6 | Apr 28 | Apr 20 | Apr 13 | Apr 7 | Apr 2 | Mar 30 | Mar 25 | Mar 17 |
| 20°F | Apr 7 | Mar 30 | Mar 23 | Mar 18 | Mar 14 | Mar 10 | Mar 7 | Mar 3 | Feb 25 |
| 16°F | Mar 17 | Mar 11 | Mar 6 | Mar 3 | Feb 28 | Feb 25 | Feb 20 | Feb 15 | Feb 5 |
First freeze in fall
The chance of an earlier freeze than the date shown. At 10 percent, one fall in ten freezes before the date.
| Threshold | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F | Aug 20 | Aug 28 | Sep 1 | Sep 3 | Sep 6 | Sep 10 | Sep 14 | Sep 18 | Sep 23 |
| 32°F | Sep 3 | Sep 10 | Sep 15 | Sep 19 | Sep 22 | Sep 26 | Sep 30 | Oct 3 | Oct 7 |
| 28°F | Sep 18 | Sep 25 | Sep 29 | Oct 2 | Oct 4 | Oct 7 | Oct 11 | Oct 16 | Oct 21 |
| 24°F | Oct 1 | Oct 6 | Oct 11 | Oct 16 | Oct 20 | Oct 25 | Oct 28 | Nov 2 | Nov 11 |
| 20°F | Oct 14 | Oct 22 | Oct 27 | Nov 1 | Nov 4 | Nov 9 | Nov 14 | Nov 20 | Nov 27 |
| 16°F | Oct 25 | Nov 1 | Nov 7 | Nov 13 | Nov 18 | Nov 23 | Nov 28 | Dec 4 | Dec 12 |
Growing season length
Days between the last spring and first fall freeze at each threshold, with the chance of a season at least that long.
| Threshold | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F | 114 | 105 | 98 | 93 | 89 | 84 | 78 | 71 | 60 |
| 32°F | 146 | 137 | 132 | 127 | 122 | 115 | 110 | 104 | 96 |
| 28°F | 181 | 172 | 165 | 159 | 154 | 149 | 144 | 137 | 129 |
| 24°F | 225 | 215 | 207 | 201 | 195 | 189 | 183 | 171 | 160 |
| 20°F | 263 | 253 | 244 | 238 | 231 | 226 | 219 | 212 | 202 |
| 16°F | 295 | 283 | 274 | 267 | 261 | 254 | 247 | 240 | 230 |
How often it gets that cold
The share of years with at least one night at or below each temperature.
- 36°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 32°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 28°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 24°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 20°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 16°F or colder
- 100% of years
Degree days
A degree day is one degree of the daily mean temperature beyond a base, for one day. Heating degree days count cold (the fuel a house burns), cooling degree days heat, growing degree days the warmth a crop needs; each crop has its own base.
- Heating degree days, base 65°F
- 7,421
- Cooling degree days, base 65°F
- 149
- Growing degree days, base 40°F
- 3,220
- Growing degree days, base 45°F
- 2,261
- Growing degree days, base 50°F
- 1,479
- Growing degree days, base 55°F
- 862
- Growing degree days, base 60°F
- 417
Growing degree days by month, base 50°F
Heating and cooling by month
| Month | Heating DD | Cooling DD | Growing DD 50 |
|---|---|---|---|
| January | 1,127 | 0 | 0 |
| February | 962 | 0 | 0 |
| March | 884 | 0 | 0 |
| April | 647 | 0 | 12 |
| May | 419 | 2 | 110 |
| June | 228 | 13 | 242 |
| July | 72 | 70 | 464 |
| August | 81 | 58 | 442 |
| September | 290 | 6 | 187 |
| October | 662 | 0 | 20 |
| November | 915 | 0 | 1 |
| December | 1,136 | 0 | 0 |
What this means
NOAA computes these from the daily lows at the station over 1991-2020, fitting the dates of each year's last and first freeze to a distribution, so a date can be stated at any level of risk. 36°F is a frost risk for tender plants on a clear, calm night, since the ground cools below the air above it; 32°F is a freeze; 28°F is a hard freeze that kills most annuals.
The station is 11.6 km from Athol. Low ground, valleys and open fields freeze earlier and later than a town center or a hillside.
More
Sources
NOAA NCEI U.S. Climate Normals, 1991-2020, annual and seasonal normals for station USC00100667 (Bayview Model Basin). Public domain.