Sycamore Frost Dates and Growing Season
Frost and the growing season
NOAA's 1991-2020 freeze probabilities for Ashburn 3 Ene. A median date has an even chance of a later freeze in spring, or an earlier one in fall.
The last spring freeze typically comes around March 11 and the first fall freeze around November 20, a growing season of about 256 days.
- Median at 36°F
- last March 23, first November 7
- Median at 32°F
- last March 11, first November 20
- Median at 28°F
- last February 26, first December 6
Last freeze in spring
The chance of a later freeze than the date shown. At 10 percent, one spring in ten still freezes after the date; planting after the 10 percent date for 32°F is the cautious choice.
| Threshold | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F | Apr 9 | Apr 3 | Mar 31 | Mar 27 | Mar 23 | Mar 19 | Mar 16 | Mar 11 | Mar 4 |
| 32°F | Mar 29 | Mar 23 | Mar 19 | Mar 15 | Mar 11 | Mar 6 | Mar 2 | Feb 26 | Feb 19 |
| 28°F | Mar 17 | Mar 10 | Mar 5 | Mar 1 | Feb 26 | Feb 19 | Feb 13 | Feb 5 | Jan 28 |
| 24°F | Mar 3 | Feb 26 | Feb 17 | Feb 10 | Feb 4 | Jan 31 | Jan 27 | Jan 18 | Jan 5 |
| 20°F | Feb 19 | Feb 9 | Feb 3 | Jan 31 | Jan 27 | Jan 21 | Jan 14 | Jan 8 | Dec 31 |
| 16°F | Feb 10 | Feb 3 | Jan 31 | Jan 27 | Jan 23 | Jan 17 | Jan 12 | Jan 7 | Jan 2 |
First freeze in fall
The chance of an earlier freeze than the date shown. At 10 percent, one fall in ten freezes before the date.
| Threshold | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F | Oct 23 | Oct 29 | Nov 1 | Nov 4 | Nov 7 | Nov 10 | Nov 14 | Nov 18 | Nov 25 |
| 32°F | Nov 1 | Nov 7 | Nov 12 | Nov 16 | Nov 20 | Nov 24 | Nov 29 | Dec 4 | Dec 12 |
| 28°F | Nov 12 | Nov 21 | Nov 28 | Dec 2 | Dec 6 | Dec 11 | Dec 20 | Dec 28 | Jan 4 |
| 24°F | Nov 27 | Dec 5 | Dec 14 | Dec 23 | Dec 29 | Jan 1 | Jan 5 | Jan 13 | Jan 25 |
| 20°F | Dec 11 | Dec 24 | Dec 31 | Jan 3 | Jan 6 | Jan 11 | Jan 16 | Jan 25 | Feb 1 |
| 16°F | Jan 1 | Jan 3 | Jan 7 | Jan 10 | Jan 15 | Jan 19 | Jan 24 | Jan 29 | Feb 2 |
Growing season length
Days between the last spring and first fall freeze at each threshold, with the chance of a season at least that long.
| Threshold | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F | 257 | 246 | 239 | 233 | 229 | 224 | 219 | 213 | 207 |
| 32°F | 284 | 275 | 268 | 262 | 256 | 250 | 244 | 237 | 228 |
| 28°F | 321 | 309 | 301 | 293 | 287 | 281 | 275 | 268 | 256 |
| 24°F | 357 | 342 | 333 | 326 | 318 | 311 | 305 | 297 | 284 |
| 20°F | 365 | 365 | 365 | 357 | 348 | 339 | 332 | 324 | 311 |
| 16°F | 365 | 365 | 365 | 365 | 365 | 365 | 365 | 352 | 334 |
How often it gets that cold
The share of years with at least one night at or below each temperature.
- 36°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 32°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 28°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 24°F or colder
- 93% of years
- 20°F or colder
- 69% of years
- 16°F or colder
- 32% of years
Degree days
A degree day is one degree of the daily mean temperature beyond a base, for one day. Heating degree days count cold (the fuel a house burns), cooling degree days heat, growing degree days the warmth a crop needs; each crop has its own base.
- Heating degree days, base 65°F
- 2,002
- Cooling degree days, base 65°F
- 2,245
- Growing degree days, base 40°F
- 9,419
- Growing degree days, base 45°F
- 7,691
- Growing degree days, base 50°F
- 6,071
- Growing degree days, base 55°F
- 4,618
- Growing degree days, base 60°F
- 3,341
Growing degree days by month, base 50°F
Heating and cooling by month
| Month | Heating DD | Cooling DD | Growing DD 50 |
|---|---|---|---|
| January | 538 | 1 | 77 |
| February | 374 | 3 | 115 |
| March | 226 | 23 | 280 |
| April | 81 | 81 | 451 |
| May | 10 | 266 | 721 |
| June | 0 | 425 | 874 |
| July | 0 | 490 | 955 |
| August | 0 | 477 | 942 |
| September | 2 | 333 | 781 |
| October | 71 | 119 | 515 |
| November | 261 | 22 | 236 |
| December | 440 | 5 | 121 |
What this means
NOAA computes these from the daily lows at the station over 1991-2020, fitting the dates of each year's last and first freeze to a distribution, so a date can be stated at any level of risk. 36°F is a frost risk for tender plants on a clear, calm night, since the ground cools below the air above it; 32°F is a freeze; 28°F is a hard freeze that kills most annuals.
The station is 3.2 km from Sycamore. Low ground, valleys and open fields freeze earlier and later than a town center or a hillside.
More
Sources
NOAA NCEI U.S. Climate Normals, 1991-2020, annual and seasonal normals for station USC00090406 (Ashburn 3 Ene). Public domain.