Arcade climate

Arcade Frost Dates and Growing Season

NOAA 1991-2020 normals for Commerce 4 Nnw, 21.5 km from Arcade, elevation 820 ft

Frost and the growing season

NOAA's 1991-2020 freeze probabilities for Commerce 4 Nnw. A median date has an even chance of a later freeze in spring, or an earlier one in fall.

The last spring freeze typically comes around March 31 and the first fall freeze around November 6, a growing season of about 222 days.

Median at 36°F
last April 11, first October 27
Median at 32°F
last March 31, first November 6
Median at 28°F
last March 16, first November 19

Last freeze in spring

The chance of a later freeze than the date shown. At 10 percent, one spring in ten still freezes after the date; planting after the 10 percent date for 32°F is the cautious choice.

Threshold10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
36°FApr 28Apr 21Apr 17Apr 14Apr 11Apr 8Apr 5Apr 2Mar 28
32°FApr 14Apr 8Apr 4Apr 2Mar 31Mar 27Mar 23Mar 18Mar 12
28°FApr 1Mar 27Mar 23Mar 19Mar 16Mar 11Mar 5Feb 28Feb 21
24°FMar 20Mar 15Mar 10Mar 5Feb 28Feb 24Feb 18Feb 11Jan 31
20°FMar 12Mar 2Feb 24Feb 18Feb 11Feb 2Jan 29Jan 20Jan 9
16°FMar 1Feb 16Feb 7Jan 31Jan 26Jan 20Jan 13Jan 7Dec 29

First freeze in fall

The chance of an earlier freeze than the date shown. At 10 percent, one fall in ten freezes before the date.

Threshold10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
36°FOct 15Oct 19Oct 22Oct 25Oct 27Oct 30Nov 1Nov 5Nov 10
32°FOct 23Oct 29Oct 31Nov 3Nov 6Nov 8Nov 13Nov 17Nov 23
28°FNov 3Nov 7Nov 11Nov 15Nov 19Nov 23Nov 28Dec 2Dec 9
24°FNov 13Nov 20Nov 26Dec 1Dec 5Dec 9Dec 16Dec 24Jan 1
20°FNov 26Dec 4Dec 10Dec 16Dec 24Dec 29Jan 2Jan 9Jan 20
16°FDec 9Dec 18Dec 27Jan 1Jan 4Jan 10Jan 15Jan 22Feb 2

Growing season length

Days between the last spring and first fall freeze at each threshold, with the chance of a season at least that long.

Threshold10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
36°F219211207203199195190186179
32°F247237231226222217212208200
28°F278270262255251246240233225
24°F315304296288281274268260250
20°F352336328319313305299289275
16°F365365357348340334327318305

How often it gets that cold

The share of years with at least one night at or below each temperature.

36°F or colder
100% of years
32°F or colder
100% of years
28°F or colder
100% of years
24°F or colder
100% of years
20°F or colder
98% of years
16°F or colder
77% of years

Degree days

A degree day is one degree of the daily mean temperature beyond a base, for one day. Heating degree days count cold (the fuel a house burns), cooling degree days heat, growing degree days the warmth a crop needs; each crop has its own base.

Heating degree days, base 65°F
3,115
Cooling degree days, base 65°F
1,616
Growing degree days, base 40°F
7,807
Growing degree days, base 45°F
6,230
Growing degree days, base 50°F
4,819
Growing degree days, base 55°F
3,578
Growing degree days, base 60°F
2,513

Growing degree days by month, base 50°F

Heating and cooling by month

MonthHeating DDCooling DDGrowing DD 50
January719026
February556042
March4015146
April17730313
May42139563
June2323771
July1436901
August0408873
September11229667
October15341361
November4135119
December641138

What this means

NOAA computes these from the daily lows at the station over 1991-2020, fitting the dates of each year's last and first freeze to a distribution, so a date can be stated at any level of risk. 36°F is a frost risk for tender plants on a clear, calm night, since the ground cools below the air above it; 32°F is a freeze; 28°F is a hard freeze that kills most annuals.

The station is 21.5 km from Arcade. Low ground, valleys and open fields freeze earlier and later than a town center or a hillside.

More

Sources

NOAA NCEI U.S. Climate Normals, 1991-2020, annual and seasonal normals for station USC00092180 (Commerce 4 Nnw). Public domain.