Jasmine Estates Frost Dates and Growing Season
Frost and the growing season
NOAA's 1991-2020 freeze probabilities for Tarpon Spgs Sewage Plt. A median date has an even chance of a later freeze in spring, or an earlier one in fall.
The last spring freeze typically comes around January 20 and the first fall freeze around January 9, a growing season of about 354 days.
- Median at 36°F
- last January 31, first December 31
- Median at 32°F
- last January 20, first January 9
- Median at 28°F
- last January 15, first January 13
Last freeze in spring
The chance of a later freeze than the date shown. At 10 percent, one spring in ten still freezes after the date; planting after the 10 percent date for 32°F is the cautious choice.
| Threshold | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F | Mar 1 | Feb 19 | Feb 11 | Feb 5 | Jan 31 | Jan 25 | Jan 18 | Jan 10 | Jan 1 |
| 32°F | Feb 14 | Feb 5 | Feb 1 | Jan 27 | Jan 20 | Jan 14 | Jan 8 | Jan 5 | Dec 29 |
| 28°F | Feb 5 | Jan 29 | Jan 26 | Jan 21 | Jan 15 | Jan 10 | Jan 7 | Jan 4 | Dec 29 |
| 24°F | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| 20°F | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| 16°F | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
First freeze in fall
The chance of an earlier freeze than the date shown. At 10 percent, one fall in ten freezes before the date.
| Threshold | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F | Dec 3 | Dec 9 | Dec 18 | Dec 25 | Dec 31 | Jan 4 | Jan 8 | Jan 16 | Jan 27 |
| 32°F | Dec 16 | Dec 26 | Jan 1 | Jan 5 | Jan 9 | Jan 15 | Jan 21 | Jan 27 | Feb 4 |
| 28°F | Dec 24 | Jan 3 | Jan 6 | Jan 8 | Jan 13 | Jan 17 | Jan 22 | Jan 27 | Feb 1 |
| 24°F | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| 20°F | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| 16°F | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Growing season length
Days between the last spring and first fall freeze at each threshold, with the chance of a season at least that long.
| Threshold | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F | 359 | 345 | 337 | 332 | 326 | 319 | 311 | 304 | 293 |
| 32°F | 365 | 365 | 365 | 362 | 354 | 345 | 337 | 331 | 318 |
| 28°F | 365 | 365 | 365 | 365 | 365 | 365 | 365 | 353 | 338 |
| 24°F | 365 | 365 | 365 | 365 | 365 | 365 | 365 | 365 | 365 |
| 20°F | 365 | 365 | 365 | 365 | 365 | 365 | 365 | 365 | 365 |
| 16°F | 365 | 365 | 365 | 365 | 365 | 365 | 365 | 365 | 365 |
How often it gets that cold
The share of years with at least one night at or below each temperature.
- 36°F or colder
- 91% of years
- 32°F or colder
- 58% of years
- 28°F or colder
- 21% of years
- 24°F or colder
- 4% of years
- 20°F or colder
- 0% of years
- 16°F or colder
- 0% of years
Degree days
A degree day is one degree of the daily mean temperature beyond a base, for one day. Heating degree days count cold (the fuel a house burns), cooling degree days heat, growing degree days the warmth a crop needs; each crop has its own base.
- Heating degree days, base 65°F
- 589
- Cooling degree days, base 65°F
- 3,486
- Growing degree days, base 40°F
- 12,023
- Growing degree days, base 45°F
- 10,206
- Growing degree days, base 50°F
- 8,406
- Growing degree days, base 55°F
- 6,655
- Growing degree days, base 60°F
- 5,000
Growing degree days by month, base 50°F
Heating and cooling by month
| Month | Heating DD | Cooling DD | Growing DD 50 |
|---|---|---|---|
| January | 196 | 42 | 329 |
| February | 115 | 56 | 365 |
| March | 62 | 118 | 522 |
| April | 9 | 224 | 665 |
| May | 0 | 393 | 857 |
| June | 0 | 511 | 962 |
| July | 0 | 561 | 1,026 |
| August | 0 | 566 | 1,031 |
| September | 0 | 488 | 938 |
| October | 7 | 334 | 792 |
| November | 55 | 128 | 524 |
| December | 145 | 66 | 396 |
What this means
NOAA computes these from the daily lows at the station over 1991-2020, fitting the dates of each year's last and first freeze to a distribution, so a date can be stated at any level of risk. 36°F is a frost risk for tender plants on a clear, calm night, since the ground cools below the air above it; 32°F is a freeze; 28°F is a hard freeze that kills most annuals.
The station is 16.9 km from Jasmine Estates. Low ground, valleys and open fields freeze earlier and later than a town center or a hillside.
More
Sources
NOAA NCEI U.S. Climate Normals, 1991-2020, annual and seasonal normals for station USC00088824 (Tarpon Spgs Sewage Plt). Public domain.