Flagler Estates climate

Flagler Estates Frost Dates and Growing Season

NOAA 1991-2020 normals for Hastings 4NE, 13.3 km from Flagler Estates, elevation 10 ft

Frost and the growing season

NOAA's 1991-2020 freeze probabilities for Hastings 4NE. A median date has an even chance of a later freeze in spring, or an earlier one in fall.

The last spring freeze typically comes around February 14 and the first fall freeze around December 30, a growing season of about 308 days.

Median at 36°F
last March 9, first December 5
Median at 32°F
last February 14, first December 30
Median at 28°F
last January 31, first January 8

Last freeze in spring

The chance of a later freeze than the date shown. At 10 percent, one spring in ten still freezes after the date; planting after the 10 percent date for 32°F is the cautious choice.

Threshold10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
36°FApr 2Mar 27Mar 20Mar 15Mar 9Mar 5Feb 28Feb 21Feb 7
32°FMar 17Mar 6Feb 28Feb 21Feb 14Feb 6Jan 31Jan 23Jan 11
28°FFeb 28Feb 17Feb 10Feb 4Jan 31Jan 24Jan 17Jan 10Dec 31
24°FFeb 11Feb 5Feb 1Jan 29Jan 21Jan 16Jan 10Jan 5Dec 29
20°F–––––––––
16°F–––––––––

First freeze in fall

The chance of an earlier freeze than the date shown. At 10 percent, one fall in ten freezes before the date.

Threshold10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
36°FNov 14Nov 22Nov 27Dec 1Dec 5Dec 10Dec 18Dec 26Jan 4
32°FNov 28Dec 5Dec 13Dec 22Dec 30Jan 3Jan 7Jan 14Jan 26
28°FDec 10Dec 24Jan 1Jan 4Jan 8Jan 15Jan 21Jan 30Feb 9
24°FDec 25Jan 1Jan 5Jan 11Jan 16Jan 21Jan 28Feb 1Feb 10
20°F–––––––––
16°F–––––––––

Growing season length

Days between the last spring and first fall freeze at each threshold, with the chance of a season at least that long.

Threshold10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
36°F307294283276270264257248236
32°F344333324315308301292284272
28°F365365362350341334327318305
24°F365365365365365365365354336
20°F365365365365365365365365365
16°F365365365365365365365365365

How often it gets that cold

The share of years with at least one night at or below each temperature.

36°F or colder
100% of years
32°F or colder
95% of years
28°F or colder
71% of years
24°F or colder
30% of years
20°F or colder
3% of years
16°F or colder
0% of years

Degree days

A degree day is one degree of the daily mean temperature beyond a base, for one day. Heating degree days count cold (the fuel a house burns), cooling degree days heat, growing degree days the warmth a crop needs; each crop has its own base.

Heating degree days, base 65°F
1,020
Cooling degree days, base 65°F
2,758
Growing degree days, base 40°F
10,869
Growing degree days, base 45°F
9,067
Growing degree days, base 50°F
7,310
Growing degree days, base 55°F
5,647
Growing degree days, base 60°F
4,115

Growing degree days by month, base 50°F

Heating and cooling by month

MonthHeating DDCooling DDGrowing DD 50
January29524236
February20330264
March12865408
April41132542
May4285746
June0432882
July0512977
August0507972
September0414864
October17239687
November10383434
December22937299

What this means

NOAA computes these from the daily lows at the station over 1991-2020, fitting the dates of each year's last and first freeze to a distribution, so a date can be stated at any level of risk. 36°F is a frost risk for tender plants on a clear, calm night, since the ground cools below the air above it; 32°F is a freeze; 28°F is a hard freeze that kills most annuals.

The station is 13.3 km from Flagler Estates. Low ground, valleys and open fields freeze earlier and later than a town center or a hillside.

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Sources

NOAA NCEI U.S. Climate Normals, 1991-2020, annual and seasonal normals for station USC00083874 (Hastings 4NE). Public domain.