Prospect Frost Dates and Growing Season
Frost and the growing season
NOAA's 1991-2020 freeze probabilities for Mt Carmel. A median date has an even chance of a later freeze in spring, or an earlier one in fall.
The last spring freeze typically comes around April 18 and the first fall freeze around October 26, a growing season of about 191 days.
- Median at 36°F
- last May 1, first October 15
- Median at 32°F
- last April 18, first October 26
- Median at 28°F
- last April 5, first November 6
Last freeze in spring
The chance of a later freeze than the date shown. At 10 percent, one spring in ten still freezes after the date; planting after the 10 percent date for 32°F is the cautious choice.
| Threshold | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F | May 16 | May 10 | May 6 | May 3 | May 1 | Apr 28 | Apr 25 | Apr 22 | Apr 18 |
| 32°F | May 3 | Apr 28 | Apr 23 | Apr 20 | Apr 18 | Apr 15 | Apr 12 | Apr 9 | Apr 5 |
| 28°F | Apr 19 | Apr 13 | Apr 10 | Apr 7 | Apr 5 | Apr 2 | Mar 31 | Mar 29 | Mar 23 |
| 24°F | Apr 6 | Apr 2 | Mar 31 | Mar 29 | Mar 26 | Mar 23 | Mar 19 | Mar 16 | Mar 11 |
| 20°F | Mar 30 | Mar 27 | Mar 23 | Mar 19 | Mar 16 | Mar 14 | Mar 10 | Mar 7 | Mar 2 |
| 16°F | Mar 23 | Mar 17 | Mar 13 | Mar 10 | Mar 7 | Mar 3 | Feb 28 | Feb 22 | Feb 14 |
First freeze in fall
The chance of an earlier freeze than the date shown. At 10 percent, one fall in ten freezes before the date.
| Threshold | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F | Oct 2 | Oct 6 | Oct 9 | Oct 12 | Oct 15 | Oct 18 | Oct 21 | Oct 25 | Oct 30 |
| 32°F | Oct 11 | Oct 16 | Oct 20 | Oct 23 | Oct 26 | Oct 29 | Nov 1 | Nov 4 | Nov 9 |
| 28°F | Oct 22 | Oct 27 | Oct 31 | Nov 3 | Nov 6 | Nov 9 | Nov 12 | Nov 16 | Nov 22 |
| 24°F | Nov 2 | Nov 7 | Nov 12 | Nov 15 | Nov 19 | Nov 23 | Nov 27 | Dec 1 | Dec 6 |
| 20°F | Nov 16 | Nov 22 | Nov 26 | Nov 30 | Dec 2 | Dec 5 | Dec 9 | Dec 14 | Dec 21 |
| 16°F | Nov 30 | Dec 4 | Dec 7 | Dec 11 | Dec 16 | Dec 20 | Dec 24 | Dec 29 | Jan 4 |
Growing season length
Days between the last spring and first fall freeze at each threshold, with the chance of a season at least that long.
| Threshold | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F | 186 | 178 | 174 | 170 | 166 | 162 | 158 | 154 | 148 |
| 32°F | 208 | 203 | 199 | 195 | 191 | 187 | 183 | 178 | 172 |
| 28°F | 235 | 227 | 221 | 218 | 214 | 210 | 206 | 201 | 195 |
| 24°F | 261 | 252 | 246 | 242 | 238 | 234 | 230 | 224 | 217 |
| 20°F | 284 | 277 | 271 | 266 | 261 | 257 | 253 | 247 | 240 |
| 16°F | 309 | 300 | 293 | 289 | 284 | 278 | 274 | 268 | 261 |
How often it gets that cold
The share of years with at least one night at or below each temperature.
- 36°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 32°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 28°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 24°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 20°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 16°F or colder
- 100% of years
Degree days
A degree day is one degree of the daily mean temperature beyond a base, for one day. Heating degree days count cold (the fuel a house burns), cooling degree days heat, growing degree days the warmth a crop needs; each crop has its own base.
- Heating degree days, base 65°F
- 5,642
- Cooling degree days, base 65°F
- 818
- Growing degree days, base 40°F
- 5,337
- Growing degree days, base 45°F
- 4,131
- Growing degree days, base 50°F
- 3,078
- Growing degree days, base 55°F
- 2,181
- Growing degree days, base 60°F
- 1,430
Growing degree days by month, base 50°F
Heating and cooling by month
| Month | Heating DD | Cooling DD | Growing DD 50 |
|---|---|---|---|
| January | 1,117 | 0 | 1 |
| February | 944 | 0 | 1 |
| March | 829 | 0 | 9 |
| April | 474 | 3 | 82 |
| May | 203 | 32 | 299 |
| June | 33 | 140 | 557 |
| July | 1 | 287 | 752 |
| August | 4 | 245 | 707 |
| September | 81 | 102 | 472 |
| October | 353 | 8 | 167 |
| November | 656 | 0 | 28 |
| December | 949 | 0 | 4 |
What this means
NOAA computes these from the daily lows at the station over 1991-2020, fitting the dates of each year's last and first freeze to a distribution, so a date can be stated at any level of risk. 36°F is a frost risk for tender plants on a clear, calm night, since the ground cools below the air above it; 32°F is a freeze; 28°F is a hard freeze that kills most annuals.
The station is 12.2 km from Prospect. Low ground, valleys and open fields freeze earlier and later than a town center or a hillside.
More
Sources
NOAA NCEI U.S. Climate Normals, 1991-2020, annual and seasonal normals for station USC00065077 (Mt Carmel). Public domain.