Mancos Frost Dates and Growing Season
Frost and the growing season
NOAA's 1991-2020 freeze probabilities for Mancos 1SW. A median date has an even chance of a later freeze in spring, or an earlier one in fall.
The last spring freeze typically comes around June 4 and the first fall freeze around September 24, a growing season of about 111 days.
- Median at 36°F
- last June 15, first September 15
- Median at 32°F
- last June 4, first September 24
- Median at 28°F
- last May 21, first October 2
Last freeze in spring
The chance of a later freeze than the date shown. At 10 percent, one spring in ten still freezes after the date; planting after the 10 percent date for 32°F is the cautious choice.
| Threshold | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F | Jun 30 | Jun 25 | Jun 21 | Jun 18 | Jun 15 | Jun 13 | Jun 9 | Jun 6 | Jun 2 |
| 32°F | Jun 19 | Jun 14 | Jun 11 | Jun 6 | Jun 4 | Jun 1 | May 29 | May 25 | May 20 |
| 28°F | Jun 9 | Jun 1 | May 28 | May 24 | May 21 | May 18 | May 15 | May 10 | May 5 |
| 24°F | May 24 | May 17 | May 13 | May 9 | May 5 | May 2 | Apr 30 | Apr 27 | Apr 23 |
| 20°F | May 10 | May 3 | Apr 30 | Apr 26 | Apr 23 | Apr 20 | Apr 15 | Apr 10 | Apr 3 |
| 16°F | Apr 27 | Apr 20 | Apr 16 | Apr 11 | Apr 7 | Apr 3 | Mar 31 | Mar 25 | Mar 16 |
First freeze in fall
The chance of an earlier freeze than the date shown. At 10 percent, one fall in ten freezes before the date.
| Threshold | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F | Sep 3 | Sep 6 | Sep 9 | Sep 12 | Sep 15 | Sep 18 | Sep 21 | Sep 24 | Sep 27 |
| 32°F | Sep 9 | Sep 13 | Sep 18 | Sep 21 | Sep 24 | Sep 26 | Sep 29 | Oct 1 | Oct 4 |
| 28°F | Sep 17 | Sep 23 | Sep 27 | Sep 30 | Oct 2 | Oct 4 | Oct 6 | Oct 10 | Oct 15 |
| 24°F | Sep 26 | Oct 1 | Oct 4 | Oct 7 | Oct 10 | Oct 13 | Oct 17 | Oct 21 | Oct 26 |
| 20°F | Oct 5 | Oct 10 | Oct 14 | Oct 18 | Oct 21 | Oct 24 | Oct 28 | Nov 1 | Nov 5 |
| 16°F | Oct 16 | Oct 21 | Oct 25 | Oct 29 | Nov 1 | Nov 4 | Nov 7 | Nov 12 | Nov 18 |
Growing season length
Days between the last spring and first fall freeze at each threshold, with the chance of a season at least that long.
| Threshold | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F | 109 | 103 | 99 | 94 | 90 | 86 | 81 | 76 | 69 |
| 32°F | 128 | 123 | 118 | 114 | 111 | 106 | 102 | 97 | 90 |
| 28°F | 153 | 146 | 140 | 135 | 132 | 128 | 124 | 118 | 111 |
| 24°F | 178 | 171 | 165 | 161 | 156 | 152 | 147 | 141 | 134 |
| 20°F | 203 | 195 | 189 | 184 | 179 | 175 | 169 | 164 | 157 |
| 16°F | 233 | 223 | 216 | 211 | 206 | 201 | 195 | 189 | 181 |
How often it gets that cold
The share of years with at least one night at or below each temperature.
- 36°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 32°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 28°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 24°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 20°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 16°F or colder
- 100% of years
Degree days
A degree day is one degree of the daily mean temperature beyond a base, for one day. Heating degree days count cold (the fuel a house burns), cooling degree days heat, growing degree days the warmth a crop needs; each crop has its own base.
- Heating degree days, base 65°F
- 6,978
- Cooling degree days, base 65°F
- 190
- Growing degree days, base 40°F
- 3,778
- Growing degree days, base 45°F
- 2,728
- Growing degree days, base 50°F
- 1,851
- Growing degree days, base 55°F
- 1,136
- Growing degree days, base 60°F
- 575
Growing degree days by month, base 50°F
Heating and cooling by month
| Month | Heating DD | Cooling DD | Growing DD 50 |
|---|---|---|---|
| January | 1,203 | 0 | 0 |
| February | 970 | 0 | 0 |
| March | 843 | 0 | 1 |
| April | 621 | 0 | 19 |
| May | 392 | 1 | 127 |
| June | 122 | 26 | 356 |
| July | 13 | 98 | 550 |
| August | 33 | 59 | 491 |
| September | 205 | 5 | 260 |
| October | 544 | 0 | 46 |
| November | 863 | 0 | 1 |
| December | 1,170 | 0 | 0 |
What this means
NOAA computes these from the daily lows at the station over 1991-2020, fitting the dates of each year's last and first freeze to a distribution, so a date can be stated at any level of risk. 36°F is a frost risk for tender plants on a clear, calm night, since the ground cools below the air above it; 32°F is a freeze; 28°F is a hard freeze that kills most annuals.
The station is 2.6 km from Mancos. Low ground, valleys and open fields freeze earlier and later than a town center or a hillside.
More
Sources
NOAA NCEI U.S. Climate Normals, 1991-2020, annual and seasonal normals for station USC00055327 (Mancos 1SW). Public domain.