Flagler Frost Dates and Growing Season
Frost and the growing season
NOAA's 1991-2020 freeze probabilities for Flagler 1S. A median date has an even chance of a later freeze in spring, or an earlier one in fall.
The last spring freeze typically comes around May 5 and the first fall freeze around October 8, a growing season of about 155 days.
- Median at 36°F
- last May 16, first September 29
- Median at 32°F
- last May 5, first October 8
- Median at 28°F
- last April 26, first October 16
Last freeze in spring
The chance of a later freeze than the date shown. At 10 percent, one spring in ten still freezes after the date; planting after the 10 percent date for 32°F is the cautious choice.
| Threshold | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F | Jun 1 | May 27 | May 22 | May 19 | May 16 | May 13 | May 10 | May 7 | May 2 |
| 32°F | May 20 | May 14 | May 10 | May 8 | May 5 | May 2 | Apr 30 | Apr 27 | Apr 22 |
| 28°F | May 8 | May 4 | May 1 | Apr 29 | Apr 26 | Apr 23 | Apr 20 | Apr 16 | Apr 11 |
| 24°F | Apr 29 | Apr 24 | Apr 20 | Apr 17 | Apr 14 | Apr 11 | Apr 6 | Apr 2 | Mar 25 |
| 20°F | Apr 19 | Apr 14 | Apr 9 | Apr 5 | Apr 1 | Mar 28 | Mar 23 | Mar 18 | Mar 11 |
| 16°F | Apr 10 | Apr 3 | Mar 28 | Mar 23 | Mar 19 | Mar 14 | Mar 9 | Mar 4 | Feb 27 |
First freeze in fall
The chance of an earlier freeze than the date shown. At 10 percent, one fall in ten freezes before the date.
| Threshold | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F | Sep 18 | Sep 22 | Sep 25 | Sep 27 | Sep 29 | Oct 1 | Oct 4 | Oct 6 | Oct 10 |
| 32°F | Sep 27 | Oct 1 | Oct 3 | Oct 6 | Oct 8 | Oct 10 | Oct 12 | Oct 15 | Oct 18 |
| 28°F | Oct 5 | Oct 8 | Oct 11 | Oct 13 | Oct 16 | Oct 18 | Oct 20 | Oct 23 | Oct 27 |
| 24°F | Oct 13 | Oct 17 | Oct 19 | Oct 22 | Oct 25 | Oct 28 | Oct 31 | Nov 2 | Nov 7 |
| 20°F | Oct 21 | Oct 26 | Oct 30 | Nov 1 | Nov 3 | Nov 6 | Nov 10 | Nov 14 | Nov 19 |
| 16°F | Oct 26 | Nov 1 | Nov 4 | Nov 8 | Nov 11 | Nov 15 | Nov 19 | Nov 23 | Nov 28 |
Growing season length
Days between the last spring and first fall freeze at each threshold, with the chance of a season at least that long.
| Threshold | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F | 153 | 147 | 143 | 140 | 136 | 132 | 127 | 122 | 115 |
| 32°F | 172 | 166 | 162 | 158 | 155 | 151 | 147 | 142 | 135 |
| 28°F | 190 | 184 | 179 | 176 | 172 | 169 | 165 | 160 | 154 |
| 24°F | 215 | 208 | 202 | 198 | 194 | 189 | 184 | 179 | 172 |
| 20°F | 240 | 232 | 226 | 221 | 217 | 212 | 207 | 202 | 194 |
| 16°F | 262 | 253 | 248 | 243 | 238 | 233 | 226 | 220 | 213 |
How often it gets that cold
The share of years with at least one night at or below each temperature.
- 36°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 32°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 28°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 24°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 20°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 16°F or colder
- 100% of years
Degree days
A degree day is one degree of the daily mean temperature beyond a base, for one day. Heating degree days count cold (the fuel a house burns), cooling degree days heat, growing degree days the warmth a crop needs; each crop has its own base.
- Heating degree days, base 65°F
- 5,817
- Cooling degree days, base 65°F
- 828
- Growing degree days, base 40°F
- 5,300
- Growing degree days, base 45°F
- 4,094
- Growing degree days, base 50°F
- 3,051
- Growing degree days, base 55°F
- 2,164
- Growing degree days, base 60°F
- 1,427
Growing degree days by month, base 50°F
Heating and cooling by month
| Month | Heating DD | Cooling DD | Growing DD 50 |
|---|---|---|---|
| January | 1,053 | 0 | 2 |
| February | 896 | 0 | 3 |
| March | 719 | 0 | 32 |
| April | 479 | 2 | 98 |
| May | 231 | 35 | 295 |
| June | 36 | 165 | 579 |
| July | 6 | 294 | 753 |
| August | 11 | 240 | 694 |
| September | 112 | 88 | 434 |
| October | 441 | 4 | 134 |
| November | 762 | 0 | 26 |
| December | 1,072 | 0 | 2 |
What this means
NOAA computes these from the daily lows at the station over 1991-2020, fitting the dates of each year's last and first freeze to a distribution, so a date can be stated at any level of risk. 36°F is a frost risk for tender plants on a clear, calm night, since the ground cools below the air above it; 32°F is a freeze; 28°F is a hard freeze that kills most annuals.
The station is 1.4 km from Flagler. Low ground, valleys and open fields freeze earlier and later than a town center or a hillside.
More
Sources
NOAA NCEI U.S. Climate Normals, 1991-2020, annual and seasonal normals for station USC00052932 (Flagler 1S). Public domain.