Julian Frost Dates and Growing Season
Frost and the growing season
NOAA's 1991-2020 freeze probabilities for Julian Cdf. A median date has an even chance of a later freeze in spring, or an earlier one in fall.
The last spring freeze typically comes around March 27 and the first fall freeze around December 1, a growing season of about 248 days.
- Median at 36°F
- last April 27, first November 11
- Median at 32°F
- last March 27, first December 1
- Median at 28°F
- last February 13, first December 22
Last freeze in spring
The chance of a later freeze than the date shown. At 10 percent, one spring in ten still freezes after the date; planting after the 10 percent date for 32°F is the cautious choice.
| Threshold | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F | May 23 | May 15 | May 7 | May 1 | Apr 27 | Apr 22 | Apr 15 | Apr 7 | Mar 29 |
| 32°F | Apr 30 | Apr 19 | Apr 11 | Apr 4 | Mar 27 | Mar 20 | Mar 11 | Mar 1 | Feb 17 |
| 28°F | Mar 24 | Mar 10 | Mar 1 | Feb 22 | Feb 13 | Feb 5 | Jan 27 | Jan 15 | Jan 1 |
| 24°F | Feb 23 | Feb 12 | Feb 7 | Jan 31 | Jan 24 | Jan 17 | Jan 11 | Jan 2 | Dec 26 |
| 20°F | Feb 12 | Feb 7 | Feb 1 | Jan 28 | Jan 23 | Jan 20 | Jan 12 | Jan 10 | Jan 6 |
| 16°F | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
First freeze in fall
The chance of an earlier freeze than the date shown. At 10 percent, one fall in ten freezes before the date.
| Threshold | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F | Oct 17 | Oct 26 | Nov 2 | Nov 7 | Nov 11 | Nov 17 | Nov 22 | Nov 28 | Dec 3 |
| 32°F | Nov 3 | Nov 14 | Nov 20 | Nov 26 | Dec 1 | Dec 5 | Dec 10 | Dec 15 | Dec 21 |
| 28°F | Nov 23 | Dec 4 | Dec 10 | Dec 15 | Dec 22 | Dec 28 | Jan 4 | Jan 16 | Feb 3 |
| 24°F | Dec 8 | Dec 25 | Dec 31 | Jan 4 | Jan 10 | Jan 19 | Jan 24 | Feb 2 | Feb 14 |
| 20°F | Jan 4 | Jan 9 | Jan 11 | Jan 19 | Jan 22 | Jan 26 | Feb 1 | Feb 5 | Feb 11 |
| 16°F | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Growing season length
Days between the last spring and first fall freeze at each threshold, with the chance of a season at least that long.
| Threshold | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F | 234 | 222 | 213 | 207 | 199 | 191 | 184 | 173 | 160 |
| 32°F | 291 | 276 | 265 | 257 | 248 | 240 | 230 | 220 | 206 |
| 28°F | 359 | 344 | 330 | 318 | 309 | 300 | 289 | 278 | 264 |
| 24°F | 365 | 365 | 365 | 365 | 365 | 353 | 341 | 329 | 312 |
| 20°F | 365 | 365 | 365 | 365 | 365 | 365 | 365 | 365 | 361 |
| 16°F | 365 | 365 | 365 | 365 | 365 | 365 | 365 | 365 | 365 |
How often it gets that cold
The share of years with at least one night at or below each temperature.
- 36°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 32°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 28°F or colder
- 94% of years
- 24°F or colder
- 49% of years
- 20°F or colder
- 12% of years
- 16°F or colder
- 1% of years
Degree days
A degree day is one degree of the daily mean temperature beyond a base, for one day. Heating degree days count cold (the fuel a house burns), cooling degree days heat, growing degree days the warmth a crop needs; each crop has its own base.
- Heating degree days, base 65°F
- 3,528
- Cooling degree days, base 65°F
- 917
- Growing degree days, base 40°F
- 6,608
- Growing degree days, base 45°F
- 5,009
- Growing degree days, base 50°F
- 3,630
- Growing degree days, base 55°F
- 2,499
- Growing degree days, base 60°F
- 1,607
Growing degree days by month, base 50°F
Heating and cooling by month
| Month | Heating DD | Cooling DD | Growing DD 50 |
|---|---|---|---|
| January | 594 | 0 | 36 |
| February | 520 | 0 | 45 |
| March | 491 | 1 | 83 |
| April | 376 | 2 | 135 |
| May | 248 | 25 | 268 |
| June | 61 | 126 | 516 |
| July | 3 | 282 | 744 |
| August | 3 | 286 | 749 |
| September | 36 | 160 | 575 |
| October | 182 | 33 | 328 |
| November | 401 | 2 | 118 |
| December | 615 | 0 | 34 |
What this means
NOAA computes these from the daily lows at the station over 1991-2020, fitting the dates of each year's last and first freeze to a distribution, so a date can be stated at any level of risk. 36°F is a frost risk for tender plants on a clear, calm night, since the ground cools below the air above it; 32°F is a freeze; 28°F is a hard freeze that kills most annuals.
The station is 0.9 km from Julian. Low ground, valleys and open fields freeze earlier and later than a town center or a hillside.
More
Sources
NOAA NCEI U.S. Climate Normals, 1991-2020, annual and seasonal normals for station USC00044412 (Julian Cdf). Public domain.