Forest Ranch Frost Dates and Growing Season
Frost and the growing season
NOAA's 1991-2020 freeze probabilities for De Sabla. A median date has an even chance of a later freeze in spring, or an earlier one in fall.
The last spring freeze typically comes around April 17 and the first fall freeze around November 11, a growing season of about 206 days.
- Median at 36°F
- last May 5, first October 28
- Median at 32°F
- last April 17, first November 11
- Median at 28°F
- last March 20, first November 27
Last freeze in spring
The chance of a later freeze than the date shown. At 10 percent, one spring in ten still freezes after the date; planting after the 10 percent date for 32°F is the cautious choice.
| Threshold | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F | Jun 1 | May 25 | May 16 | May 10 | May 5 | May 1 | Apr 27 | Apr 23 | Apr 17 |
| 32°F | May 11 | May 1 | Apr 26 | Apr 21 | Apr 17 | Apr 12 | Apr 8 | Apr 2 | Mar 23 |
| 28°F | Apr 20 | Apr 10 | Apr 3 | Mar 29 | Mar 20 | Mar 11 | Mar 3 | Feb 22 | Feb 5 |
| 24°F | Mar 23 | Mar 4 | Feb 24 | Feb 15 | Feb 3 | Jan 21 | Jan 8 | Dec 29 | Dec 13 |
| 20°F | Feb 27 | Feb 16 | Jan 28 | Jan 15 | Jan 5 | Dec 31 | Dec 22 | Dec 15 | Dec 6 |
| 16°F | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
First freeze in fall
The chance of an earlier freeze than the date shown. At 10 percent, one fall in ten freezes before the date.
| Threshold | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F | Oct 4 | Oct 13 | Oct 18 | Oct 23 | Oct 28 | Oct 31 | Nov 3 | Nov 6 | Nov 11 |
| 32°F | Oct 21 | Oct 31 | Nov 3 | Nov 7 | Nov 11 | Nov 15 | Nov 19 | Nov 23 | Nov 28 |
| 28°F | Nov 6 | Nov 13 | Nov 19 | Nov 23 | Nov 27 | Dec 1 | Dec 5 | Dec 11 | Dec 17 |
| 24°F | Nov 19 | Nov 28 | Dec 5 | Dec 12 | Dec 19 | Dec 26 | Jan 3 | Jan 18 | Feb 9 |
| 20°F | Dec 1 | Dec 11 | Dec 16 | Dec 22 | Dec 30 | Jan 4 | Jan 17 | Jan 30 | Feb 21 |
| 16°F | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Growing season length
Days between the last spring and first fall freeze at each threshold, with the chance of a season at least that long.
| Threshold | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F | 199 | 191 | 184 | 177 | 171 | 166 | 158 | 150 | 137 |
| 32°F | 237 | 226 | 218 | 212 | 206 | 200 | 195 | 186 | 174 |
| 28°F | 300 | 282 | 271 | 260 | 252 | 243 | 235 | 225 | 213 |
| 24°F | 365 | 357 | 344 | 334 | 324 | 314 | 303 | 289 | 273 |
| 20°F | 365 | 365 | 365 | 365 | 365 | 365 | 365 | 351 | 334 |
| 16°F | 365 | 365 | 365 | 365 | 365 | 365 | 365 | 365 | 365 |
How often it gets that cold
The share of years with at least one night at or below each temperature.
- 36°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 32°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 28°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 24°F or colder
- 84% of years
- 20°F or colder
- 29% of years
- 16°F or colder
- 5% of years
Degree days
A degree day is one degree of the daily mean temperature beyond a base, for one day. Heating degree days count cold (the fuel a house burns), cooling degree days heat, growing degree days the warmth a crop needs; each crop has its own base.
- Heating degree days, base 65°F
- 3,741
- Cooling degree days, base 65°F
- 965
- Growing degree days, base 40°F
- 6,449
- Growing degree days, base 45°F
- 4,894
- Growing degree days, base 50°F
- 3,588
- Growing degree days, base 55°F
- 2,525
- Growing degree days, base 60°F
- 1,656
Growing degree days by month, base 50°F
Heating and cooling by month
| Month | Heating DD | Cooling DD | Growing DD 50 |
|---|---|---|---|
| January | 650 | 0 | 17 |
| February | 557 | 0 | 25 |
| March | 512 | 0 | 68 |
| April | 370 | 4 | 135 |
| May | 187 | 39 | 329 |
| June | 52 | 145 | 544 |
| July | 3 | 302 | 764 |
| August | 2 | 272 | 735 |
| September | 34 | 166 | 582 |
| October | 193 | 37 | 321 |
| November | 492 | 0 | 65 |
| December | 690 | 0 | 5 |
What this means
NOAA computes these from the daily lows at the station over 1991-2020, fitting the dates of each year's last and first freeze to a distribution, so a date can be stated at any level of risk. 36°F is a frost risk for tender plants on a clear, calm night, since the ground cools below the air above it; 32°F is a freeze; 28°F is a hard freeze that kills most annuals.
The station is 5.4 km from Forest Ranch. Low ground, valleys and open fields freeze earlier and later than a town center or a hillside.
More
Sources
NOAA NCEI U.S. Climate Normals, 1991-2020, annual and seasonal normals for station USC00042402 (De Sabla). Public domain.