West Fork Frost Dates and Growing Season
Frost and the growing season
NOAA's 1991-2020 freeze probabilities for Fayetteville Drake Fld. A median date has an even chance of a later freeze in spring, or an earlier one in fall.
The last spring freeze typically comes around April 15 and the first fall freeze around October 21, a growing season of about 188 days.
- Median at 36°F
- last April 27, first October 11
- Median at 32°F
- last April 15, first October 21
- Median at 28°F
- last April 3, first October 31
Last freeze in spring
The chance of a later freeze than the date shown. At 10 percent, one spring in ten still freezes after the date; planting after the 10 percent date for 32°F is the cautious choice.
| Threshold | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F | May 11 | May 5 | May 2 | Apr 30 | Apr 27 | Apr 23 | Apr 20 | Apr 16 | Apr 11 |
| 32°F | May 1 | Apr 27 | Apr 23 | Apr 19 | Apr 15 | Apr 12 | Apr 9 | Apr 5 | Mar 31 |
| 28°F | Apr 21 | Apr 13 | Apr 10 | Apr 7 | Apr 3 | Mar 31 | Mar 29 | Mar 24 | Mar 17 |
| 24°F | Apr 10 | Apr 5 | Apr 1 | Mar 28 | Mar 24 | Mar 19 | Mar 14 | Mar 9 | Mar 3 |
| 20°F | Mar 31 | Mar 23 | Mar 16 | Mar 12 | Mar 8 | Mar 5 | Feb 28 | Feb 25 | Feb 18 |
| 16°F | Mar 15 | Mar 8 | Mar 4 | Feb 28 | Feb 24 | Feb 19 | Feb 14 | Feb 7 | Jan 30 |
First freeze in fall
The chance of an earlier freeze than the date shown. At 10 percent, one fall in ten freezes before the date.
| Threshold | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F | Sep 29 | Oct 3 | Oct 6 | Oct 9 | Oct 11 | Oct 14 | Oct 17 | Oct 20 | Oct 24 |
| 32°F | Oct 8 | Oct 13 | Oct 16 | Oct 19 | Oct 21 | Oct 24 | Oct 27 | Oct 30 | Nov 3 |
| 28°F | Oct 16 | Oct 21 | Oct 25 | Oct 28 | Oct 31 | Nov 2 | Nov 5 | Nov 9 | Nov 14 |
| 24°F | Oct 27 | Nov 1 | Nov 4 | Nov 7 | Nov 11 | Nov 14 | Nov 18 | Nov 23 | Nov 29 |
| 20°F | Nov 5 | Nov 11 | Nov 15 | Nov 19 | Nov 23 | Nov 27 | Dec 1 | Dec 5 | Dec 11 |
| 16°F | Nov 15 | Nov 23 | Nov 27 | Dec 1 | Dec 6 | Dec 11 | Dec 16 | Dec 23 | Jan 1 |
Growing season length
Days between the last spring and first fall freeze at each threshold, with the chance of a season at least that long.
| Threshold | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F | 187 | 180 | 175 | 171 | 167 | 162 | 158 | 153 | 147 |
| 32°F | 209 | 202 | 196 | 192 | 188 | 183 | 179 | 174 | 167 |
| 28°F | 233 | 224 | 218 | 214 | 209 | 205 | 200 | 195 | 188 |
| 24°F | 260 | 250 | 245 | 240 | 234 | 228 | 222 | 217 | 208 |
| 20°F | 287 | 278 | 271 | 266 | 260 | 255 | 250 | 242 | 233 |
| 16°F | 318 | 307 | 300 | 294 | 286 | 281 | 274 | 267 | 258 |
How often it gets that cold
The share of years with at least one night at or below each temperature.
- 36°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 32°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 28°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 24°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 20°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 16°F or colder
- 100% of years
Degree days
A degree day is one degree of the daily mean temperature beyond a base, for one day. Heating degree days count cold (the fuel a house burns), cooling degree days heat, growing degree days the warmth a crop needs; each crop has its own base.
- Heating degree days, base 65°F
- 4,080
- Cooling degree days, base 65°F
- 1,352
- Growing degree days, base 40°F
- 6,914
- Growing degree days, base 45°F
- 5,494
- Growing degree days, base 50°F
- 4,226
- Growing degree days, base 55°F
- 3,112
- Growing degree days, base 60°F
- 2,152
Growing degree days by month, base 50°F
Heating and cooling by month
| Month | Heating DD | Cooling DD | Growing DD 50 |
|---|---|---|---|
| January | 887 | 0 | 15 |
| February | 691 | 1 | 29 |
| March | 520 | 5 | 100 |
| April | 260 | 23 | 245 |
| May | 86 | 97 | 477 |
| June | 5 | 263 | 708 |
| July | 0 | 399 | 863 |
| August | 1 | 372 | 835 |
| September | 41 | 161 | 570 |
| October | 245 | 29 | 277 |
| November | 532 | 3 | 83 |
| December | 812 | 0 | 21 |
What this means
NOAA computes these from the daily lows at the station over 1991-2020, fitting the dates of each year's last and first freeze to a distribution, so a date can be stated at any level of risk. 36°F is a frost risk for tender plants on a clear, calm night, since the ground cools below the air above it; 32°F is a freeze; 28°F is a hard freeze that kills most annuals.
The station is 9.7 km from West Fork. Low ground, valleys and open fields freeze earlier and later than a town center or a hillside.
More
Sources
NOAA NCEI U.S. Climate Normals, 1991-2020, annual and seasonal normals for station USW00093993 (Fayetteville Drake Fld). Public domain.