Mayflower Frost Dates and Growing Season
Frost and the growing season
NOAA's 1991-2020 freeze probabilities for Marche. A median date has an even chance of a later freeze in spring, or an earlier one in fall.
The last spring freeze typically comes around April 1 and the first fall freeze around November 1, a growing season of about 213 days.
- Median at 36°F
- last April 13, first October 21
- Median at 32°F
- last April 1, first November 1
- Median at 28°F
- last March 17, first November 11
Last freeze in spring
The chance of a later freeze than the date shown. At 10 percent, one spring in ten still freezes after the date; planting after the 10 percent date for 32°F is the cautious choice.
| Threshold | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F | Apr 28 | Apr 22 | Apr 19 | Apr 15 | Apr 13 | Apr 10 | Apr 7 | Apr 4 | Mar 29 |
| 32°F | Apr 17 | Apr 11 | Apr 7 | Apr 4 | Apr 1 | Mar 29 | Mar 25 | Mar 19 | Mar 13 |
| 28°F | Apr 5 | Apr 1 | Mar 27 | Mar 22 | Mar 17 | Mar 14 | Mar 10 | Mar 5 | Feb 28 |
| 24°F | Mar 22 | Mar 16 | Mar 11 | Mar 7 | Mar 3 | Feb 28 | Feb 25 | Feb 20 | Feb 12 |
| 20°F | Mar 12 | Mar 5 | Feb 28 | Feb 25 | Feb 19 | Feb 13 | Feb 7 | Feb 1 | Jan 23 |
| 16°F | Mar 1 | Feb 23 | Feb 15 | Feb 8 | Feb 3 | Jan 29 | Jan 23 | Jan 15 | Jan 4 |
First freeze in fall
The chance of an earlier freeze than the date shown. At 10 percent, one fall in ten freezes before the date.
| Threshold | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F | Oct 9 | Oct 13 | Oct 16 | Oct 19 | Oct 21 | Oct 24 | Oct 26 | Oct 29 | Nov 2 |
| 32°F | Oct 19 | Oct 23 | Oct 26 | Oct 29 | Nov 1 | Nov 3 | Nov 6 | Nov 9 | Nov 15 |
| 28°F | Oct 30 | Nov 2 | Nov 5 | Nov 8 | Nov 11 | Nov 14 | Nov 18 | Nov 22 | Nov 27 |
| 24°F | Nov 5 | Nov 11 | Nov 15 | Nov 19 | Nov 22 | Nov 26 | Dec 1 | Dec 5 | Dec 12 |
| 20°F | Nov 16 | Nov 22 | Nov 27 | Dec 1 | Dec 7 | Dec 11 | Dec 19 | Dec 25 | Jan 4 |
| 16°F | Nov 29 | Dec 5 | Dec 14 | Dec 22 | Dec 29 | Jan 2 | Jan 8 | Jan 15 | Jan 28 |
Growing season length
Days between the last spring and first fall freeze at each threshold, with the chance of a season at least that long.
| Threshold | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F | 208 | 202 | 198 | 194 | 190 | 186 | 182 | 178 | 171 |
| 32°F | 236 | 228 | 222 | 218 | 213 | 209 | 204 | 199 | 192 |
| 28°F | 263 | 255 | 248 | 242 | 237 | 232 | 227 | 221 | 212 |
| 24°F | 292 | 282 | 274 | 268 | 262 | 258 | 252 | 246 | 238 |
| 20°F | 327 | 318 | 308 | 301 | 294 | 287 | 280 | 272 | 260 |
| 16°F | 362 | 351 | 340 | 333 | 325 | 318 | 310 | 303 | 290 |
How often it gets that cold
The share of years with at least one night at or below each temperature.
- 36°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 32°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 28°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 24°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 20°F or colder
- 99% of years
- 16°F or colder
- 92% of years
Degree days
A degree day is one degree of the daily mean temperature beyond a base, for one day. Heating degree days count cold (the fuel a house burns), cooling degree days heat, growing degree days the warmth a crop needs; each crop has its own base.
- Heating degree days, base 65°F
- 3,511
- Cooling degree days, base 65°F
- 1,814
- Growing degree days, base 40°F
- 7,758
- Growing degree days, base 45°F
- 6,253
- Growing degree days, base 50°F
- 4,907
- Growing degree days, base 55°F
- 3,718
- Growing degree days, base 60°F
- 2,692
Growing degree days by month, base 50°F
Heating and cooling by month
| Month | Heating DD | Cooling DD | Growing DD 50 |
|---|---|---|---|
| January | 824 | 0 | 13 |
| February | 626 | 0 | 43 |
| March | 438 | 4 | 121 |
| April | 193 | 28 | 301 |
| May | 42 | 163 | 586 |
| June | 0 | 365 | 814 |
| July | 0 | 497 | 962 |
| August | 0 | 451 | 916 |
| September | 16 | 239 | 673 |
| October | 181 | 64 | 360 |
| November | 471 | 3 | 96 |
| December | 719 | 0 | 23 |
What this means
NOAA computes these from the daily lows at the station over 1991-2020, fitting the dates of each year's last and first freeze to a distribution, so a date can be stated at any level of risk. 36°F is a frost risk for tender plants on a clear, calm night, since the ground cools below the air above it; 32°F is a freeze; 28°F is a hard freeze that kills most annuals.
The station is 11.1 km from Mayflower. Low ground, valleys and open fields freeze earlier and later than a town center or a hillside.
More
Sources
NOAA NCEI U.S. Climate Normals, 1991-2020, annual and seasonal normals for station USC00034625 (Marche). Public domain.